Three of today's 10 new series openers in Major League Baseball are interleague matchups as the end of August approaches. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday based on the best MLB odds.
The series between the San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies will have massive playoff implications, as the two teams currently occupy the top two wild card spots in the National League and are separated by just two games. Similarly, the San Diego Padres are running out of time to make a late push for a wild card spot and host one of the teams they are chasing, the Miami Marlins.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our World Series odds.
Monday's MLB schedule and odds
- Chicago Cubs (-135) vs. Detroit Tigers (+114)
- San Francisco Giants (+136) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-162)
- St. Louis Cardinals (OFF) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- New York Mets (+164) vs. Atlanta Braves (-198)
- Boston Red Sox (+110) vs. Houston Astros (-130)
- Seattle Mariners (-185) vs. Chicago White Sox (+154)
- Cincinnati Reds (+105) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-125)
- Kansas City Royals (+110) vs. Oakland Athletics (-130)
- Texas Rangers (-155) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+130)
- Miami Marlins (OFF) vs. San Diego Padres
Monday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts (+110 via Caesars) vs. Giants ????
- Player prop: Lourdes Gurriel Under 1.5 total bases (-165 via bet365) vs. Rangers ????
- Player prop: Cristian Javier to record a win (+235 via bet365) vs. Red Sox ???
- Upset: Reds ML vs. Angels (+110 via PointsBet) ???
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Monday's MLB prop picks
Phillies righty Aaron Nola has made six career starts against the Giants and allowed five-plus earned runs in four. In addition, his 1.674 WHIP in that span is the highest against any opponent he has made more than one career start against. But for all those struggles, Nola still has an 8.8 K/9 rate against the Giants, and this total seems too low, given San Francisco's recent struggles.
The Giants have the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the majors over the last 14 days (26.2%) and a 25.9% K rate over the previous 30 days. Meanwhile, Nola has recorded 16 or fewer outs in four consecutive starts but has at least six strikeouts in each. Nola should be in for a longer outing against a Giants lineup that ranks dead-last in wRC+ and slugging in road games since July 1, which raises the ceiling for Nola's strikeout total considerably.
We are gobbling up these plus-money odds at Caesars, which look like a steal compared to the -106 odds to back the Over at FanDuel.
Lourdes Gurriel is batting .310 in August, and his .924 OPS is the second highest of any month this season. However, he is coming off consecutive months hitting .190 and slugging .381 or worse, so we expect regression from Gurriel to close out the month.
Gurriel has five hits (all singles) in 18 career at-bats against Texas Rangers southpaw Jordan Montgomery, so he has not been productive from a power standpoint. Montgomery has been outstanding since the trade thus far, with an ERA+ of 178 following an ERA+ of 108 in his time with the New York Yankees and 126 with the St. Louis Cardinals. This is a four-star play as Montgomery has made four consecutive quality starts (and quality starts in ten of his last 12) and has been tougher on right-handed hitters all season, with a .247 OBA against righties compared to a .284 OBA against left-handed hitters.
Given that DraftKings and Caesars offer -175 and -183 odds, respectively, to back the Under, bet365's -165 odds do not seem too steep in comparison.
The Houston Astros fell to 2-7 against the Seattle Mariners and were swept by their division rival for the first time since 2018. But we are not hitting the panic button on the Astros yet, as Seattle has been red hot on the road for quite some time, winning 19 of its last 24 road games.
Houston may be just 10-10 against the AL East this season but is 23-14 against left-handed starting pitchers, so we expect it to score plenty of runs against Boston Red Sox southpaw James Paxton. Paxton's WHIP and OBA have increased for three straight months, and Quinn Riley noted a drastic drop in velocity and spin rate on Paxton's fastball, which has led to a worse Stuff+ rating for four consecutive months. Meanwhile, Astros righty Cristian Javier has won just one of his last 11 starts, but seven of his last eight have come on the road, and we expect him to find comfort pitching at Minute Maid Park, where he has a 3.19 ERA in nine starts.
Javier has worse odds to record the win than Paxton (+185) despite his team being favored, but we expect him to pitch the necessary five innings to qualify for the victory, something he has not done in two of three August starts.
Monday's MLB game picks
The Los Angeles Angels have not gotten a great return on their trade for Lucas Giolito thus far, as they are 1-3 in his four starts, while Giolito has pitched to an 8.14 ERA and accumulated a -0.4 WAR. Giolito has faced a brutal schedule so far, with the team's only win coming at home against a Giants team amid a 2-12 stretch in road games. Giolito now faces his fifth consecutive team over .500, and the Cincinnati Reds should not be this big of underdogs in this matchup.
Cincinnati ranks in the top eight in wRC+, slugging, OPS, and wOBA in road games since July 1 and ranks second in BABIP (.323). Giolito has some positives to build off in his last start, as the velocity on his fastball and slider were the highest it has been all season, resulting in Driveline Stuff+ scores of 160 and 132, respectively, on those pitches. However, until he gets his control issues (3+ walks in five of seven starts) settled and stops allowing home runs (seven HRs allowed in 21 innings with the Angels), the uptick in velocity will not matter.
PointsBet is the only shop where one can back the underdogs at better than +108 odds.
MLB best bets made 8/21/2023 at 5:57 a.m. ET.
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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