Two series openers, five series finales, and one makeup game from an earlier rainout comprise Thursday's eight-game Major League Baseball slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday based on the best MLB odds.
For just one day, the Tampa Bay Rays and Cincinnati Reds were the only teams in the league this season that had double-digit winning streaks. However, the San Francisco Giants joined them yesterday, winning their 10th in a row, which has them occupying the top wild-card spot in the National League.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday (odds via DraftKings and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Thursday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) vs. Washington Nationals (-125)< /li>
- Atlanta Braves (-115) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-105)
- Oakland Athletics (+150) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-175)
- Boston Red Sox (+130) vs. Minnesota Twins (-150)
- San Diego Padres (-130) vs. San Francisco Giants (+110)
- Kansas City Royals (+300) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-365)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) vs. Miami Marlins (-135)
- Seattle Mariners (+100) vs. New York Yankees (-120)
Thursday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Lane Thomas Over 1.5 total bases (+120 via DraftKings) vs. Diamondbacks ????
- Player prop: Domingo German Under 1.5 earned runs allowed (+125 via DraftKings) vs. Mariners ????
- Player prop: Michael Harris II to score a run (+145 via DraftKings) vs. Phillies ????
- First Five Innings Moneyline: Padres ML vs. Giants (-130 via PointsBet) ???
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Thursday's MLB prop picks
Right fielder Lane Thomas leads all Washington Nationals hitters in home runs (11), RBIs (36), OPS (.826), and total bases (138). He has mashed left-handed pitching this year to the tune of a .355 batting average and 1.051 OPS. And June has been his best month yet from a batting average and slugging standpoint, with a .345/.355/.724 slash line over the previous seven days.
One of Thomas' two career hits (in five at-bats) against Arizona Diamondbacks southpaw Tommy Henry left the yard, and Henry has pitched to a 6.75 ERA in four road starts. This is a confident four-star play, as Henry ranks in the bottom half of the league in xSLG and barrels and has allowed a .323 OBA in three June starts.
Of al l major sportsbooks offering total bases props for this game, Caesars is the next closest to DraftKings with +117 odds on Thomas' Over.
Domingo German has made two starts against five different teams this season. Three of those rematches were on the road against the Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays, and Boston Red Sox, and German was roughed up for 13 earned runs in 11 combined innings. However, the two times he made the second of two starts at home against the Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays, German has allowed just two earned runs and no home runs in 14 innings. We are backing those trends to mean a good start is in order for German after he allowed four earned runs in 6 1/3 innings in a May 29 start at Seattle.
That start against the Mariners was one of three of his last four where he recorded 18-plus outs. He has averaged more than six innings per start in his six home starts, while his OBA is 70 points lower, and his ERA is nearly three runs lower at Yankee Stadium than on the road.
German should dominate a Mariners squad that is 4-14 in their last 18 games in the Bronx and one that has seen the Under go 5-0-1 in their previous five games while averaging 2.5 runs per game in that span. So while we would have preferred to get German's O/U at 2.5 runs, we cannot argue with the plus-money odds at DraftKings (Caesars is slightly lower at +120) with him facing a struggling offense.
Michael Harris II has hit ninth in the Atlanta Braves lineup in 32 of 50 games played this season, but that has not prevented his run-scoring production. Harris has averaged one run in fewer than every two games when hitting ninth (17 runs scored in 32 games), which is the second-highest rate compared to when he bats fifth through eighth. A large reason for that is that he is typically on-base for big hitters like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzi e Albies when hitting last, and those two lead the team in batting average and RBIs, respectively.
This is a confident four-star play as Harris has been red-hot in June, slashing .375/.388/.625 in 64 at-bats, with a low 17.2% strikeout rate. Harris is also 2-for-12 against Aaron Nola, with both hits being home runs. And with Ronald Acuna and Austin Riley hitting behind him who each have OPSs of 1.229 or better against Nola, there is a good chance one of them will drive Harris in if he doesn't plate himself with another home run before that.
DraftKings is the only sportsbook offering more than +139 odds for this wager.
Thursday's MLB game picks
The Giants have trailed after five innings and the eighth inning four times during their 10-game winning streak. Thus, San Francisco has shown its penchant for wearing down opposing bullpens and battli ng until the final out. And while that should not have mattered against the San Diego Padres' third-ranked bullpen in terms of ERA, the Giants overcame eighth-inning deficits in each of the first two games of this series and won in their final at-bat.
Thus, we are limiting this wager to just the first five innings, as Padres southpaw Blake Snell has tied season-highs with 12 strikeouts in back-to-back starts. In addition, the Giants are in their worse hitting split against a lefty, as they rank 18th or worse in wRC+, ISO, and slugging against southpaws. San Francisco does rank second against lefties in BABIP against southpaws, but that strength is negated by Snell's high strikeout potential (84th percentile in K%).
PointsBet has better odds in comparison to FanDuel's -138, and we do not mind laying the extra juice considering the book also juiced the Giants' Under of 2.5 runs through the first five innin gs to -180.
MLB best bets made 6/22/2023 at 7:03 a.m. ET.
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