Today's 10-game Major League Baseball slate consists of seven series finales and three openers. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday based on the top MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.
Of the three new series starting today, all are between divisional opponents, with the most high-profile matchup pitting the top two teams in the AL East. The Baltimore Orioles have won three of their five head-to-head meetings with the Tampa Bay Rays this year, and Baltimore starts the series percentage points ahead of Tampa Bay for first place, the first time it has occupied that spot all season.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday (odds via DraftKings, PointsBet, and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Thursday's MLB schedule and odds
- Arizo na Diamondbacks (+165) vs. Atlanta Braves (-195)
- San Francisco Giants (-115) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-105)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-105) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-115)
- San Diego Padres (-120) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+100)
- Chicago White Sox (+140) vs. New York Mets (-165)
- Detroit Tigers (OFF) vs. Kansas City Royals
- Minnesota Twins (+110) vs. Seattle Mariners (-130)
- Baltimore Orioles (+155) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-180)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+110) vs. Chicago Cubs (-130)
- Houston Astros (-190) vs. Oakland Athletics (+160)
Thursday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Zac Gallen Over 3.5 earned runs allowed (+110 via DraftKings) vs. Braves ???
- Player prop: Kyle Schwarber Under 0.5 hits (+115 via PointsBet) vs. Brewers ????
- Player prop: Ian Happ Over 1.5 total bases (+150 via DraftKings) vs. Cardinals ???
- Total: Giants-Reds Under 9.5 (-102 via FanDuel) ?????
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Thursday's MLB prop picks
This is a pitching matchup of the top-two NL Cy Young Award leaders, per DraftKings, as Spencer Strider and Zac Gallen look to add to their impressive resumes. But a total of 8.5 suggests we should see more offense than one would expect, and we are not looking to fade the Atlanta Braves offense against any starting pitcher these days.
Atlanta has scored at least five runs in nine of its last 14 games. It ranks top-two in MLB in wOBA and OPS and leads the league in home runs in that span. Meanwhile, Gallen's xERA (3.68) is more than a half-run higher than his actual ERA (3.14), and we expect his career-low walk rate this season (5.3%) to regress more toward his 7.8% career average in the second half.
This is a three-star play, as Gallen's last three starts against teams at .500 or better produced a 5.50 ERA with five strikeouts or fewer in two of those. Caesars also offers plus-money odds for this wager, but at slightly less value (+106) than DraftKings.
Kyle Schwarber's career stat line against Milwaukee Brewers righty Corbin Burnes is similar to his overall splits the last several seasons, with a low batting average and some home run success to inflate his OPS. Schwarber is slashing .200/.385/.500 in 10 career at-bats against Burnes, with half of his outs coming via strikeout.
Burnes' 3.71 ERA over his last seven starts is still skewed by one bad blowup appearance against the Arizona Diamondbacks, as his ERA is a much more tidy 2.59 in the other six starts. Stuff+ rates him as a top-f ive pitcher in baseball, and he has allowed just six total hits over his previous 19 innings, despite those three starts coming against divisional opponents more familiar with his arsenal.
Thus, Schwarber and his .189 batting average (.198 over the last 30 days) do not pose much of a threat to Burnes, especially since his 30% strikeout rate is the second-highest among all players since last season, while Burnes has a K% of 30.5% or better each of the previous three seasons.
PointsBet has the same +115 odds as DraftKings for this wager, with Caesars slightly lower at +110.
The St. Louis Cardinals are thrusting Steven Matz back into a starter's role after making five of his last seven appearances out of the bullpen. Matz has allowed a .309 OBA and eight of his 10 home runs to right-handed batters, as righties have a .847 OPS against him, compared to a .600 OPS when facing left-han ded hitters.
Ian Happ is 0-for-4 in his career against Matz but has been raked against the Cardinals this season, slashing .313/.522/.750 in 16 at-bats. This is a three-star play, as Happ's batting average and OBP are higher against southpaws than righties, and he has cashed the Over on his total bases prop in three of his previous five games.
DraftKings offers the best value for this wager, with his odds as low as +139 at Caesars.
Thursday's MLB game picks
Total: Giants-Reds Under 9.5 (-102 via FanDuel) ?????
The San Francisco Giants have had to get creative with their bullpen usage, as they do not have many starting pitchers they are confident in outside of Logan Webb and Alex Cobb. While Webb currently has the fourth-best Cy Young odds (+750) at DraftKings, Cobb has quietly held the fort down in his starts. His 2.82 ERA is the best of all pitchers in the Giants rotation, and his 2.9 WAR and 91.6 pitches per start are second-best. Cobb ranks in the top third of the league in barrels and does not issue free passes, with an elite walk rate in the 88th percentile.
We are also keen on backing the Under when the Giants face southpaws as they are in their worse-hitting split. In addition, San Francisco entered yesterday cashing the team total Under in 12 of its last 18 games (+5.20 units, 25% ROI), then followed up by scoring just two runs on six hits.
This is a five-star play as the Giants lineup is not as deep without J.D. Davis, who missed yesterday's game with an illness. His absence today would be a big loss considering he is second on the team in home runs, RBIs, and total bases against southpaws.
FanDuel is the only shop where the Under is juiced less than -105.
MLB best bets made 7/20/2023 at 7:02 a.m. ET.
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