Four more series (three involving all National League teams) begin Tuesday as we have a full 15-game Major League Baseball slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday based on the best MLB odds.
Of the four new series beginning Tuesday, one that will draw much attention is the Pittsburgh Pirates hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers, as the former puts its seven-game winning streak (tied for the longest active streak in the majors) to the test. Pittsburgh swept Colorado and Cincinnati to build that winning streak and now gets a chance to prove itself against one of the National League's top contenders.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tuesday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Colorado Rockies (+175) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-205)
- Boston Red Sox (+135) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-155)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+110)
- Houston Astros (+145) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-170)
- Seattle Mariners (-120) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (+100)
- Texas Rangers (-150) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+130)
- Chicago White Sox (+165) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-195)
- Washington Nationals (OFF) vs. New York Mets
- Miami Marlins (+190) vs. Atlanta Braves (-225)
- Detroit Tigers (+145) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-170)
- New York Yankees (+100) vs. Minnesota Twins (-120)
- San Diego Padres (+105) vs. Chicago Cubs (-125)
- Oakland Athletics (+145) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-170)
- Kansas City Royals (+120) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-1 40)
- St. Louis Cardinals (OFF) vs. San Francisco Giants
Tuesday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Mauricio Dubon Under 0.5 hits (+195 via DraftKings) vs. Rays ???
- Player prop: Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBIs (+175 via DraftKings) vs. Orioles ???
- Player prop: Joe Ryan Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-173 via Caesars) vs. Yankees ????
- Total: Mariners-Phillies Over 8.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ????
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Tuesday's MLB prop picks
Mauricio Dubon was thought of by many as merely a utility player thrust into the Astros lineup out of necessity to bridge the gap until Jose Altuve returns from injury. However, Dubon's .325 batting average and 109 OPS+ suggest he has earned the right to an everyday role once Altuve returns.
This is a bold prediction, as Dubon's 18-game hitting streak is the longest so far this season and one away from tying the Astros' franchise record for longest before May 1. However, we expect regression for a career .252 hitter who had not batted higher than .240 in the two previous seasons.
Tampa Bay's Drew Rasmussen is a big reason Rays starters entered Monday leading the league in ERA (2.54) and xFIP (3.03). In addition, his 0.94 WHIP is second among all Rays starters, and his 5.6 H/9 rate is on pace to be by far the lowest of his career.
A $100 bet on this Under would pay $16 more at DraftKings than Caesars, which is at +179 for the same wager.
Rafael Devers entered Monday tied for sixth in the majors with 21 RBIs and had driven in at least one run in three of his previous four games. He faces Orioles righty Kyle Bradish, against whom he is 6-for-13 with two strikeouts. Just one of those six hits went for extra bases, but we expect Devers to get to the plate with traffic consistently on the basepaths, as the player he hits behind (Alex Verdugo) has a slash line of .385/.385/.538 in 13 at-bats against Bradish.
This is only a three-star play, as the Orioles have won the two games in which Bradish has appeared by a combined 6-0. However, he is also 0-3 with a 7.54 ERA in five career starts against Boston, so we expect the Red Sox to do plenty of scoring and for Devers to be involved.
FanDuel (+135) and Caesars (+168) pay out less for Devers to drive in a run, so DraftKings is once again our preferred shop.
Minnesota's Joe Ryan is off to a blistering start this year, winning all four outings while pitching to a 3.24 ERA. Though that ERA may not jump off the page, his 2.46 xERA suggests he has pitched much better, and he now faces a Yankees lineup that does not seem as intimidating with the void left by Giancarlo Stanton's injury in the middle of the lineup.
New York ranks 19th in BABIP and outside the top 10 in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and BB/K ratio on the road this year. This is a four-star wager, as the Yankees will have difficulty putting many balls in play on a cold night in Minnesota, as Ryan ranks in the 85th percentile in strikeout percentage and 80th in xBA. He also does not issue many free passes, ranking in the 88th percentile in walk percentage.
Caesars' -173 odds are pretty comparable to DraftKings' -175 odds, but we are still willing to lay this steep number as a four-star play given that the full game O/U is 6.5 runs at most sportsbooks.
Tuesday's MLB game picks
Seattle righty Logan Gilbert's home/road splits on paper appear drastic, as evident by his 6-9 record in 29 home starts and 14-3 record in 31 starts on the road. However, his road ERA is only 0.15 runs lower, his road WHIP is higher (1.20 compared to 1.13 at home), and his K/9 rates (9.0 at home, 9.1 on the road) are nearly identical. Thus, Gilbert's gaudy .824 road winning percentage is a product of him getting elite run support, and we expect a Phillies lineup that ranks fourth in wRC+ and first in BABIP at home against righties to do its part in the scoring.
Seattle has not done much damage against left-handed pitching this season (24th in wRC+, 29th in BABIP) but should get right against Phillies southpaw Bailey Falter, who ranks in the eighth percentile in strikeout percentage and whiff percentage.
FanDuel is one of three of our best sportsbooks (DraftKings and PointsBet are the others) not charging more in juice to back the Over, while others like BetRivers are as high as -122.
MLB best bets made 4/25/2023 at 6:16 a.m. ET.
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