Seventeen games played in three different countries comprise an exciting and jampacked Major League Baseball slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds.
Major League Baseball is used to having games played in Canada because of the Toronto Blue Jays. But, the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres begin a two-game series in Mexico City to further highlight the league's expansion outside the United States. In addition, we have two doubleheaders as inclement weather forced postponements of games in Washington and Detroit on Friday.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Saturday's MLB schedule and odds
- Pittsburgh Pirates (-130) vs. Washington Nationals (+110) Game 1
- Pittsburgh Pirates (-145) vs. Washington Nationals (+125) Game 2
- Baltimore Orioles (-120) vs. Detroit Tigers (+100) Game 1
- Baltimore Orioles (-165) vs. Detroit Tigers (+140) Game 2
- Kansas City Royals (+190) vs. Minnesota Twins (-225)
- Seattle Mariners (+185) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-215)
- Atlanta Braves (-170) vs. New York Mets (+145)
- Chicago Cubs (+105) vs. Miami Marlins (-125)
- Cincinnati Reds (-150) vs. Oakland Athletics (+130)
- Cleveland Guardians (-105) vs. Boston Red Sox (-125)
- Philadelphia Phillies (+105) vs. Houston Astros (-125)
- San Francisco Giants (+150) vs. San Diego Padres (-175)
- New York Yankees (+125) vs. Texas Rangers (-145)
- Los Angeles Angels (+125) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-145)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-140) vs. Chicago White Sox (+120)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-120) vs. Colorado Rockies (+100)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+130) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-150)
Saturday's MLB best bets
- Player Prop: Brayan Bello to record a win (+210 via DraftKings) vs. Guardians ???
- Player Prop: Matt Chapman to hit a home run (+285 via FanDuel) vs. Mariners ???
- Player Prop: Marcus Semien to score a run (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Yankees ????
- Upset: Angels ML vs. Brewers (+135 via Wynn) ???
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Saturday's MLB prop picks
Boston Red Sox righty Brayan Bello is making his third start of the season. Though he has allowed eight total earned runs and not completed five innings in either start, he is arguably going against his weakest opponent to date after facing the Los Angeles Angels and Milwauke e Brewers in the first two starts.
The Cleveland Guardians rank in the bottom five of the league offensively in hard-hit rate and barrels. And while Bello's 9.8% career walk rate could be an issue against a Guardians offense that draws walks at the sixth-highest rate, we are confident Bello can erase any free passes with double play balls, as he has induced nearly 60% of his contact on the ground.
Boston has done well to avoid losing streaks, with wins in five of its last six following a loss. Thus, we are backing Bello to be directly involved in today's victory and are making this wager at DraftKings, which provides $20 more in value for a $100 bet than Caesars (+190).
Toronto Blue Jays slugger Matt Chapman entered Friday ranked tied for first among all hitters (min. 70 PA) with a .458 BABIP and was first in xwOBA (.488) and wRC+ (208). Chapman has five home runs on the sea son (tied for the team lead), and though he has not homered in eight consecutive games, his second-ranked 1.111 OPS suggests he should not have a homerless drought much longer.
Chapman is 4-for-13 in his career against Seattle Mariners righty Chris Flexen, with two of the four hits being home runs. Thus, we are encouraged by Chapman's 1.240 OPS against Flexen and that the righty's 2.1 HR/9 rate is on pace to be his worst since 2018.
If the New York Yankees were not dealing with injuries to 60% of its rotation, it's likely that righty Jhony Brito would already be DFA'ed after his poor start. Brito has pitched to a 1.53 WHIP and 6.11 ERA and has allowed 11 earned runs in his last 7 2/3 innings.
That bodes well for Texas Rangers leadoff man Marcus Semien's chances to cross the plate, as his 24 runs scored are three more than anyone else on the team. In additi on, Semien is the only Rangers position player with a WAR above 1.0 (1.5). And with Texas' team total set at O/U 4.5 runs, Semien is a great value play to score at least one run for the 14th time in the last 18 games.
The best value is again at DraftKings, as Caesars (-115) and FanDuel (-130) charge more in juice for Semien to plate a run.
Saturday's MLB game picks
Milwaukee Brewers righty Corbin Burnes has made back-to-back All-Star Game appearances and finished in the top seven in the Cy Young Award voting each of the last three seasons. However, he has not pitched like the ace the team has been accustomed to this season, as he has a negative WAR and an ERA (4.55) on pace to be the second-worst of his career.
Burnes' 7.2 K/9 rate is on pace to be the lowest of his career, as he has become much more of a one-pitch pitcher (50.8% cutter) than he was before this season. That change in arsenal has led to slightly worse command (49th percentile in walks) and produced fewer swings and misses (51st percentile in whiff percentage) than he has the last several years.
The Angels rank in the top 12 in BABIP (.300) in road games against right-handed pitching this year. And given Burnes' declining strikeout numbers, we are less concerned about L.A.'s 12th-highest strikeout rate in the road versus righties split.
WynnBet is the only sportsbook where bettors can back the Angels at higher than +128 odds.
MLB best bets made 4/29/2023 at 7 a.m. ET.
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