MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets – Will Braves Stay Perfect as Road Underdogs?

Major League Baseball action is ramping up as many teams near the 40-game mark. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds.

On Thursday night, the Tampa Bay Rays became the first team to win 30 games, the second time in franchise history they have been the first to reach the 30-win plateau. And the Rays became the first team in 22 seasons to reach the 30-win mark in fewer than 40 games, per Elias. Can they clinch at least a share of another series with a victory Saturday?

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and WynnBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Saturday's MLB schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

• Tampa Bay Rays (-135) vs. New York Yankees (+115)
• Cincinnati Reds (+165) vs. Miami Marlins (-195)
• Seattle Mariners (-175) vs. Detroit Tigers (+150)
• Chicago Cubs (+140) vs. Minnesota Twins (-165)
• Atlanta Braves (+105) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-125)
• New York Mets (-145) vs. Washington Nationals (+125)
• Texas Rangers (-140) vs. Oakland Athletics (+120)
• St. Louis Cardinals (+110) vs. Boston Red Sox (-130)
• Los Angeles Angels (-115) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-105)
• Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-165)
• Kansas City Royals (+135) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-155)
• Houston Astros (+105) vs. Chicago White Sox (-125)
• San Diego Padres (+125) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-145)
• San Francisco Giants (+140) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-165)
• Philadelphia Phillies (-155) vs. Colorado Rockies (+135)

Saturday's MLB best bets

• Player prop: Shane McClanahan Over 6.5 strikeouts (+108 via FanDuel) vs. Y ankees ???
• Player prop: Paul Goldschmidt Over 0.5 RBIs (+155 via DraftKings) vs. Red Sox ???
• Player prop: Dylan Cease not to record a win (-260 via DraftKings) vs. Astros ?????
• Moneyline: Braves ML vs. Blue Jays (+110 via WynnBet) ????

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Saturday's MLB prop picks

The New York Yankees benefitted from ideal weather conditions on Friday night to provide ace Gerrit Cole with just enough run support, as they evened the series against the Tampa Bay Rays with a 6-5 victory. Another hot day in the Bronx will make preventing balls from being put in play that much more imperative.

Now New York has the arduous task of facing southpaw Shane McClana han, the only baseball pitcher with seven victories. McClanahan ranks seventh in the majors (and third in the American League) with an 11.35 K/9 rate, and his 31.4% strikeout rate is on pace for a career-high. In addition, his whiff percentage is up on all his pitches except his slider from last year, when he finished with a 30.3% strikeout rate.

This is a three-star play as McClanahan steps up his game when facing the Yankees, as his 11.0 K/9 rate over 30 1/3 innings are the most against any divisional opponent.

Since FanDuel offers the best value for this prop (compared to the +100 and -108 found at DraftKings and Caesars), bettors may also be tempted to back his alternate strikeout line of 8+ K's for +220 odds.

This St. Louis Cardinals versus Boston Red Sox matchup has the highest projected total of any non-Coors Field game played Saturday, and what better way to get onside a batt er prop in this game than with last year's MVP?

Paul Goldschmidt dominated lefties last season, leading the league by a wide margin with a .411 batting average and 1.327 OPS against southpaws, and was the only player with a wRC+ of higher than 214 (his was 266) in such splits. While we are typically more encouraged by batters who have seen the opposing pitcher, we are not discouraged that this is Goldschmidt's first time facing Chris Sale, considering he is slashing .361/.378/.583 against southpaws this season.

Making this wager at DraftKings returns as much as $40 more in value for a $100 wager compared to sportsbooks like FanDuel with +115 odds.

Our most confident five-star play is with this prop, as Dylan Cease has not won any of his last five starts, and the Chicago White Sox are 1-4 in that span. Cease has allowed 20 earned runs in his previous 18 innings, and his strikeout r ate (currently at 10.9 per nine innings) is on pace to decline for the third straight season. In Cease's latest rough outing against the Kansas City Royals (seven runs allowed on nine hits over five innings), Cease induced just 12 swinging strikes on 64 total strikes. 

This Houston Astros lineup is not as deep as recent years, but Cease has never been able to solve them, going 0-3 with a 5.13 ERA in five starts. And Houston still has the ninth-lowest strikeout rate in the league, so Cease is not as likely to record many punchouts as he is accustomed to. 

This is stretching the limits of the steepest price we are willing to pay for a wager, which means we are avoiding the -268 price tag found at Caesars.

Saturday's MLB game picks

Anytime we can back the Atlanta Braves as road underdogs, we will jump at the opportunity. The Braves are an M LB-best 15-4 on the road this season (no other NL team is more than two games above .500 on the road) and are a perfect 4-0 as road underdogs. They now send youngster Bryce Elder to the mound, who leads all Braves starters in WAR and is second WHIP (1.11), and innings pitched (41.1). Four of Elder's seven starts have been quality starts, and the team is 6-1 in that span.

While Toronto Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios has a career .647 winning percentage and 3.57 ERA at home versus a .484 winning percentage and 4.97 ERA on the road, we are still skeptical about his ability to navigate a powerful Braves lineup, considering he ranks in the bottom fifth of the league in xBA and xSLG.

WynnBet is the only sportsbook where one will find Atlanta at better than +105 odds.

MLB best bets made 5/13/2023 at 7 a.m. ET.

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