Four new series begin Tuesday to round out a loaded 15-game Major League Baseball slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday based on the best MLB odds.
If you want an idea of how much parity there has been in baseball recently, look no further than each team's record in the last 10 games. Just one team is 8-2 or better in the last 10 (the Los Angeles Dodgers), while just two teams (the Oakland Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates) are 2-8. Twenty-three other teams are within two games of .500 in that span, which means there has been plenty of opportunities to cash in big on underdogs.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, BetRivers; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tuesday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Los Angeles Angels (+115) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-135)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+100) vs. Detroit Tigers (-120)
- Washington Nationals (+125) vs. Miami Marlins (-145)
- New York Yankees (+160) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-190)
- Seattle Mariners (-165) vs. Boston Red Sox (+140)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+140) vs. New York Mets (-165)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+155) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-180)
- Atlanta Braves (-120) vs. Texas Rangers (+100)
- Chicago Cubs (+140) vs. Houston Astros (-165)
- Cleveland Guardians (-130) vs. Chicago White Sox (+110)
- Cincinnati Reds (+110) vs. Colorado Rockies (-130)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) vs. Oakland Athletics (+125)
- Kansas City Royals (+180) vs. San Diego Padres (-210)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-120) vs. San Francisco Giants (+100)
- Minnesota Twins (+170) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-200)
Tuesday's MLB best bets
- P layer prop: Luis Castillo Under 17.5 outs recorded (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Red Sox ????
- Player prop: Nolan Arenado Over 0.5 RBIs (+115 via DraftKings) vs. Brewers ???
- Player prop: Zack Wheeler Under 1.5 earned runs allowed (-104 via Caesars) vs. Giants ????
- Moneyline: Tigers ML vs. Pirates (-115 via BetRivers) ????
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Tuesday's MLB prop picks
In his last four starts, Seattle Mariners righty Luis Castillo has recorded more than 15 outs just once. He has thrown 95-plus pitches in each of those starts, so he hasn't been given any quick hooks. However, he has allowed at least eight baserunners in all of his shorter five-inning appearances, with his pitch count also b eing driven up by high strikeout totals (eight-plus strikeouts in two of his last four).
The Boston Red Sox endured a disappointing home sweep against the St. Louis Cardinals, being held to 10 runs over the three games. However, this is still an offense that entered Monday ranked first in batting average (.290), third in BABIP (.333), fifth in wRC+, and had the second-lowest strikeout rate (18.4%) in their 23 home games this season. Thus, this is a four-star play, as the Red Sox have the weapons to ensure Castillo has a short outing.
Caesars offers slightly worse -107 odds for this wager, so we are making this play at DraftKings.
Nolan Arenado has benefitted from hitting in the heart of the Cardinals' batting order, as his 30 RBIs ranks in the top 13 in the majors. Arenado was red-hot against the Red Sox over the weekend, homering in all three games and going 7-for-14 at the pla te. He continued that with a two-hit (including a home run) and four-RBI performance against the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday, and has now hit safely in six straight games and driven in a run in eight of nine.
Thus, DraftKings' +115 odds for him to plate another run is good value considering he is batting .391 (9-for-23) in his career against Tuesday's starter, Wade Miley.
This is a three-star play, as teammate Paul Goldschmidt is also slashing .500/.579/.938 in his career against Miley and should provide traffic on the bases paths for Arenado to work with.
The San Francisco Giants have had plenty of opportunities to break out the bats against subpar pitchers over the last six weeks but have consistently failed to take advantage. As Steven Kennedy wrote in the McCovey Chronicles, the Giants have faced six pitchers since April 2 that currently sport an ERA of 4.30 or higher ( the MLB average entering Monday was 4.29) that held the Giants to one or fewer runs. So while Zack Wheeler's 3.80 ERA is on pace to be his worst since 2019, history says he is due for a bounce-back start against the Giants, especially since his 3.38 xERA suggested positive regression was looming.
We would have preferred to back this number at Under 2.5 earned runs, but cannot argue with the solid -104 return at Caesars at the lower number.
Tuesday's MLB game picks
The Pittsburgh Pirates made MLB history entering Sunday's series finale against the Baltimore Orioles. They set a record for offensive futility after getting off to a hot start, per OptaStats. The Pirates snapped a streak of 12 consecutive games scoring three or fewer runs, but just barely, in their 4-0 victory over the Orioles. But while they got another dominating performance on the mound from Mitch Keller in that game, Tuesday's starter does not instill the same confidence.
Luis Ortiz is winless (0-3) in five career Major League starts, and his 4.29 ERA is a reflection of his 18:11 K:BB ratio. Ortiz is opposed by Detroit's Michael Lorenzen, whose 3.99 xERA is slightly better than his actual 4.18 ERA. In addition, Lorenzen is on pace for his best walk rate (6.0%) of his career, and he is of two Tigers starters with a positive WAR rating, largely because he has made quality starts in 40% of his appearances.
Pittsburgh may be seven games over .500 (15-8) against teams with losing records, but Detroit has played more consistent baseball with series wins in three of its last four.
BetRivers and WynnBet are the only sportsbooks offering less than -118 for the Tigers to win outright.
MLB best bets made 5/16/2023 at 6:28 a.m. ET.
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