One-third of Wednesday's 15 Major League Baseball games are played in the afternoon window, as another mid-week getaway day commences. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday based on the best MLB odds.
On Tuesday, we backed Pete Alonso to record at least one RBI, and he came through in a big way, driving in the team's only two runs. Per ESPN Stats & Info, Alonso's 18 home runs through 49 games are the most in New York Mets franchise history through 50 games, and he has a chance to add to that record as the Mets try to even the series with the Chicago Cubs.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday (odds via DraftKings, Caesars, and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wednesday's MLB schedule and odds
- Texas Rangers (-125) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+105)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-120) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (+100)
- Chicago White Sox (+110) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-130)
- Houston Astros (-110) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-110)
- San Francisco Giants (+135) vs. Minnesota Twins (-155)
- St. Louis Cardinals (-155) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+135)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+175) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (205)
- Baltimore Orioles (+110) vs. New York Yankees (-130)
- San Diego Padres (-155) vs. Washington Nationals (+135)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (+100) vs. Atlanta Braves (-120)
- Detroit Tigers (-105) vs. Kansas City Royals (-115)
- New York Mets (+100) vs. Chicago Cubs (-120)
- Miami Marlins (-165) vs. Colorado Rockies (+140)
- Boston Red Sox (-115) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-105)
- Oakland Athletics (+220) vs. Seatt le Mariners (-260)
Wednesday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Anthony DeSclafani Under 17.5 outs (+100 via Caesars) vs. Twins ???
- Player prop: Tim Anderson Over 0.5 runs (+110 via FanDuel) vs. Guardians ???
- Player prop: Sandy Alcantara to record win (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Rockies ????
- Alternate run line: Mariners -2 (+100 via DraftKings) vs. Athletics ????
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Wednesday's MLB prop picks
San Francisco Giants righty Anthony DeSclafani has averaged more than six innings per start over the last seven outings. However, he has been trending in the wrong direction lately, with 10 1/3 combined innings pitched in his previous two starts.
DeSclafani has four or fewer strikeouts in four of his nine starts (he ranks in the 25th percentile for strikeout rate), and the fact that he typically pitches to contact means longer outings. However, this is a three-star play, as DeSclafani has been removed after 77 and 84 pitches in his last two starts, respectively, which suggests manager Gabe Kapler has less confidence in him as the game progresses.
Minnesota ranks in the top half of the league in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year, but its 25.2% strikeout rate (third-highest in the league) entering Tuesday suggests DeSclafani's pitch count could escalate quicker than usual.
Caesars' plus-money odds for this wager are more enticing that DraftKings' -105 odds.
Chicago White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson's OBP (.284) has not been this low since 2018, but even in that year, he managed 77 runs scored in 153 games. It is not often we get this good of odds on a player who has made All-Star games in consecutive seasons, but the price is warranted, considering he has scored just one run in the previous 13 games. However, we are banking on him ending that slump against a pitcher he has had success against.
Anderson is 7-for-17 with an .882 OPS against Cleveland Guardians righty Cal Quantrill. And Anderson is protected in the lineup by Andrew Benintendi, who has slashed .400/.438/.667 in 15 career at-bats against Quantrill. Given that history and that Anderson's six stolen bases lead the team despite playing in just 31 games, we are making this a value-based three-star play.
FanDuel provides the best value for this wager, as DraftKings and Caesars are at +105 and -102, respectively.
Sandy Alcantara is making one of the worst defenses of the NL Cy Young Award in recent memory, as he is 0-5 with a 6.17 ERA in his last seven starts. In addition, his 6.46 ERA in four road starts is more than two full runs higher than his 4.05 ERA in five starts at home. However, his K/9 rate is still 8.5 compared to the 8.1 he ended his Cy Young campaign with.
Though many bettors will expect Alcantara to turn in a similarly poor outing at hitter-friendly Coors Field, they should be reminded that the Rockies rank 29th in the league in wRC+ in home games. Alcantara is on pace for his worst GB/FB ratio of the last four seasons, but Colorado ranks 24th in HR/FB percentage in home games.
Miami is a respectable 13-10 as a road favorite since 2022, and we expect Alcantara to break his winless streak and lead his team to victory over a team that is a half-game away from the worst record in the National League.
There is a big difference in value between DraftKings' -105 odds and Caesars' -119 odds for the same wager.
Wednesday's MLB game picks
The Oakland Athletics are on pace to break the 162-game record for the fewest wins in a season. The A's are tracking to win just 40 games, three fewer games than the Detroit Tigers won in 2003. Oakland has lost 26 of its 40 games by at least three runs, including 11 of 18 such losses against divisional opponents.
Oakland's Ken Waldichuk has allowed an astronomically high .423 wOBA, and he ranks in the bottom fifth of the league in xSLG, barrels, and walk rate. Conversely, Seattle Mariners rookie Bryce Miller has allowed a microscopic .143 wOBA because of elite control with a walk rate in the 99th percentile.
As the home team, Seattle has covered the traditional -1.5 run line just 41.7% of the time, but we are laying an extra half run to be able to take advantage of the plus-money odds against a historically bad team. Those who want an even better return can find the best odds laying -2.5 runs at DraftKings (+130).
MLB best bets made 5/24/2023 at 6:32 a.m. ET.
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