Late rain may affect some Major League Baseball games on the East Coast, but there's still a packed slate ahead thanks to the Marlins-Guardians doubleheader. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds.
Five of the American League's top eight pitchers on the Cy Young Award odds list take the mound today. Dylan Cease and Shane McClanahan go head-to-head in a battle of unbeaten pitchers. Gerrit Cole and Luis Castillo seek to remain unbeaten for the Yankees and Mariners, respectively, while Framber Valdez looks to help Houston go over .500.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and WynnBet; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Saturday's MLB sc hedule and odds
- Toronto Blue Jays (+150) vs. New York Yankees (-175)
- Washington Nationals (+240) vs. Minnesota Twins (-285)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-135) vs. Chicago Cubs (+115)
- Chicago White Sox (+140) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-165)
- Colorado Rockies (+155) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-180)
- New York Mets (+105) vs. San Francisco Giants (-125)
- Miami Marlins (OFF) vs. Cleveland Guardians (OFF) Game 1
- Miami Marlins (OFF) vs. Cleveland Guardians (OFF) Game 2
- Cincinnati Reds (+130) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-150)
- Detroit Tigers (+155) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-180)
- Oakland Athletics (+195) vs. Texas Rangers (-230)
- Boston Red Sox (+110) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-130)
- Houston Astros (-105) vs. Atlanta Braves (-115)
- San Diego Padres (-145) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+125)
- Kansas City Royals (+155) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-180)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+135) vs. Seattle Mariners (- 155)
Saturday's MLB best bets
- Player Prop: Alek Manoah Over 17.5 outs recorded (-145 via DraftKings) vs. Yankees ????
- Player Prop: Pablo Lopez to record a win (-130 via DraftKings) vs. Nationals ????
- Player Prop: Gio Urshela Over 0.5 RBI (+190 via DraftKings) vs. Royals ???
- Upset: Marlins ML vs. Guardians (+125 via Wynn) ????
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Saturday's MLB prop picks
While many pitchers come with drastic home/road splits, Blue Jays righty Alek Manoah is as consistent as they come, with a winning percentage differential of 21 points and an ERA differential of 0.09 at home. Manoah has been enjoying plenty of success at Yankee Stadium, going 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA in four starts. It's one of two visiting stadiums he's unbeaten at with a minimum of three starts.
Manoah has held current Yankees to a .186/.257/.269 slash line over 86 at-bats, and just five of his 16 hits allowed have gone for extra bases. New York is dealing with a vast power void in the middle of its lineup with Giancarlo Stanton on the IL, and none of its No. 5-9 hitters have hit for better than a .240 average. The Yankees also aren't posting more than a .295 on-base percentage.
This is a contrarian three-star play as Manoah has completed five innings just once in four starts, with four-plus walks undoing him in three consecutive outings. Caesars is at -149 for the same prop, so we're getting slightly better value at DraftKings.
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We're looking beyond Minnesota&# 39;s steep moneyline odds for the second straight day and instead opting for more value with its starting pitcher to record a win.
The Twins are 2-2 in Pablo Lopez's starts despite scoring eight total runs. That's a testament to Lopez's stuff, as he's allowed two or fewer earned runs in every 2023 outing. He's completed at least six innings in seven of eight starts dating back to 2022.
Offense shouldn't be an issue for Minnesota when facing Chad Kuhl, who ranks in the eighth percentile or worse in average exit velocity, xSLG, barrels, and strikeout percentage.
Once again, DraftKings offers slightly superior odds than Caesars, which is at -137 for Lopez to earn the victory.
The Royals are 0-4 in Zack Greinke's starts, losing by a combined score of 21-6. Worse, 16 of those runs have come during his last two appearances. And while M ike Trout has posted outstanding career numbers against Greinke (.318/.342/.682 slash line), so has Gio Urshela, whose props provide much better value.
Urshela has recorded eight hits across 17 at-bats against Greinke, resulting in a 1.291 OPS. He entered Friday with just nine RBI in 16 games, but Urshela has posted a higher WAR than Shohei Ohtani (with his pitching stats excluded), largely because he's batting .297 with a .703 OPS. Additionally, Urshela may rank in the bottom fourth of the league in hard-hit percentage and barrels, but he's still finding enough holes and is facing a pitcher in the 14th percentile in xBA.
FanDuel is offering the lowest odds for this wager (+135), while Caesars is closer to DraftKings at +173 odds.
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Saturday's MLB game picks
As Shane Bieber showed in his last outing against the Nationals, not all quality starts are equal. Though Bieber has begun the year with four such appearances, he labored against Washington while allowing nine hits (three for extra bases), including his first home run given up of 2023.
Bieber has also struck out four or fewer batters in three of those starts, and his 6.5 K/9 rate is on pace to be by far a career low. It would be the fourth consecutive season when his strikeout rate has dropped. It's therefore concerning that Bieber only generated five total swings and misses against one of MLB's worst lineups.
Meanwhile, I'm not buying into the narrative that Sandy Alcantara is tired after leading the league in innings pitched last year, despite his 5.84 ERA through four starts. On the contrary, Alcantara is coming off his best start from a swing-and-miss standpoint (9:0 K:BB ratio).
This is a four-star play because only two Guardians have faced Alcantara in more than one game (Josh Bell and Amed Rosario are a combined 6-for-38). That should give the righty a huge advantage for at least the first couple of times through the order.
Alcantara has not yet been named the Game 1 starter, but we're expecting that because he was slated to start Friday and Braxton Garrett has already been named for Game 2.
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MLB best bets made 4/22/2023 at 6:54 a.m. ET.
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