Several series finales are on tap around Major League Baseball on the last day of May. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday based on the best MLB odds.
Many of MLB's best hitters continued to rake at the plate yesterday, as Aaron Judge hit his 18th home run and Freddie Freeman recorded four hits to run his hitting streak to 19 games. Who catches our eye from a player prop perspective today?
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday (odds via DraftKings and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wednesday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Texas Rangers (-135) vs. Detroit Tigers (+115)
- Los Angeles Angels (+110) vs. Chicago White Sox (-130)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-135) vs. Chicago Cubs (+115)
- C leveland Guardians (OFF) vs. Baltimore Orioles
- Atlanta Braves (-225) vs. Oakland Athletics (+190)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) vs. San Francisco Giants (-125)
- Washington Nationals (+200) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-240)
- San Diego Padres (-120) vs. Miami Marlins (+100)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+155) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-180)
- Cincinnati Reds (+155) vs. Boston Red Sox (-180)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-120) vs. New York Mets (+100)
- Minnesota Twins (+155) vs. Houston Astros (-180)
- Colorado Rockies (+150) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-175)
- New York Yankees (+115) vs. Seattle Mariners (-135)
Wednesday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Lance Lynn Over 2.5 earned runs (-130 via DraftKings) vs. Angels ????
- Player prop: Patrick Corbin Over 3.5 earned runs allowed (+100 via DraftKings) vs. Dodgers ???
- Player prop: Christian Yelich Over 0.5 st olen bases (+190 via PointsBet) vs. Blue Jays ???
- Alternate runline: Braves -2.5 runs vs. Athletics (+110 via DraftKings) ????
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Wednesday's MLB prop picks
Lance Lynn is the only Chicago White Sox starting pitcher with a negative WAR, largely because he has a poor 5.83 ERA and has allowed 12 home runs in 63 1/3 innings. While Lynn is a workhorse, averaging a team-high 100.5 pitches per start, his pitch count tends to run high, thanks in part to a 10.2 K/9 rate tied for the best among the team's starting pitchers.
Lynn has won three consecutive starts and four of five this month. Still, we are not buying his recent stretch where he has pitched to a 1.89 ERA, cons idering those three starts came against the three lowest-scoring teams in the American League not named the Oakland Athletics. This is a four-star play, as Lynn has faced five teams with a winning record and has failed to complete six innings in three of them.
Patrick Corbin has turned his season around after finishing April with a 5.72 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, as he is 3-1 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in five May starts. The Washington Nationals starter has been an innings eater of late, completing six-plus innings in five consecutive starts and seven of eight. However, the fact that he has thrown 96-plus pitches in three of four starts is precisely why we expect this prop to cash, as Nationals manager Dave Martinez should give Corbin a longer leash even if the Los Angeles Dodgers hang some crooked numbers.
Corbin has allowed a .299/.380/.514 slash line to current Dodgers hitters. But this is a three-star play considering t hree of L.A.'s less-heralded hitters (Miguel Rojas, Trayce Thompson, and Austin Barnes) have done most of the damage. The trio is a combined .404 (23-for-57) against Corbin with more extra-base hits (seven) than strikeouts (five). That is surprising considering that a more dangerous hitter like Freddie Freeman is in the midst of his third-longest active hitting streak (19 games) of his career and is slugging .456/.522/.807 over the last 15 games.
The odds for this wager are similar at Caesars (-108), but we are headed to DraftKings to take advantage of the slightly better value.
Stolen bases are not the most wagered-upon batter prop, but Toronto Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah's poor performance in his last start caught our eye and increased the value in several Milwaukee Brewers' odds to swipe a bag.
Manoah has not won in nine starts and after he allowed five runs in three inni ngs in his previous start, his ERA rose to 5.53, the 68th-worst out of 72 qualified pitchers this season. Most importantly, the Tampa Bay Rays took advantage of his slow delivery, with three players stealing five total bases and the team allowing seven stolen bases.
Milwaukee entered Tuesday ranked in the top 10 in stolen bases. Christian Yelich is our most likely candidate to swipe a bag, considering his 11 stolen bases are four more than any other Brewers player.
DraftKings is one of the only other sportsbooks offering a stolen bases prop, but it has the same +190 odds as PointsBet.
Wednesday's MLB game picks
After losing the first two games of the series to the lowly Oakland Athletics, the Atlanta Braves are in danger of being the victim of the A's first series sweep of the season. We do not see that happening, as the A's have won jus t one of their 16 series to date (they took two out of three games at the Kansas City Royals from May 5-7), while the Braves have lost just three of their previous four series despite facing three playoff teams from a year ago, and another who has the second-best winning percentage in the majors.
Oakland is in its better hitting split, ranking just outside the league's top half in OPS against left-handed pitching. But the A's were held to three or fewer runs in each game of a recent 11-game losing streak, and the fact that they are just 1-22 in day games this year has us playing Atlanta's alternate runline with confidence.
The best odds for this wager are at DraftKings, as other sportsbooks like BetMGM are offering +105 or worse on the alternate run line.
MLB best bets made 5/31/2023 at 7 a.m. ET.
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- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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