Three new series begin Tuesday, rounding out an exciting and full 15-game Major League Baseball slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday based on the best MLB odds.
Of the six teams starting new series, the New York Mets have the longest active winning streak (five games) in the National League at stake. In addition, the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees have won seven consecutive games between them as the two AL East rivals continue to chase the Tampa Bay Rays, who are climbing the World Series odds board.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Tuesday (odds via DraftKings and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tuesday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Chicago White Sox (+110) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-130)
- Texas Rangers (-165) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+140)
- St. Louis Cardinals (-135) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+115)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+110) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-130)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-135)
- San Diego Padres (-150) vs. Washington Nationals (+130)
- Baltimore Orioles (+145) vs. New York Yankees (-170)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (+180) vs. Atlanta Braves (-210)
- Detroit Tigers (OFF) vs. Kansas City Royals
- New York Mets (-110) vs. Chicago Cubs (-110)
- San Francisco Giants (+115) vs. Minnesota Twins (-135)
- Houston Astros (-125) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (+105)
- Miami Marlins (-125) vs. Colorado Rockies (+105)
- Boston Red Sox (-115) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-105)
- Oakland Athletics (+195) vs. Seattle Mariners (-230)
Tuesday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 strikeouts (+110 via DraftKings) vs. Pirates ? ??
- Player prop: Pete Alonso Over 0.5 RBIs (+140 via DraftKings) vs. Cubs ???
- Player prop: Sonny Gray Over 2.5 earned runs (+130 via DraftKings) vs. Giants ????
- Runline: Rays -1.5 vs. Blue Jays (+158 via FanDuel) ????
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Tuesday's MLB prop picks
As MLB.com's Sarah Langs mentioned on Twitter, Sunday night was the first time two starting pitchers lasted eight-plus innings in the same game. With starting pitchers going deep into games becoming more of a rarity, Nathan Eovaldi's active streak of four consecutive starts with at least seven innings (he has thrown eight or more in three of those starts) pitched is all the more impressive.
The Texas Rangers starter has not recorded fewer than five strikeouts in a game all season, and he is on pace for his fourth season in the previous five years with a K/9 rate of more than 9.1.
Since the calendar turned to May, the Pittsburgh Pirates offense has been dreadful, scoring the fewest runs (53) in the majors. Thus, this is a confident four-star play, as the Pirates are also one of two teams with a negative offensive WAR rating in that span and have the third-highest strikeout rate (25.5%) in the league.
FanDuel is offering -160 odds for an Over/Under of 5.5 strikeouts (which would be a four-star play), but we prefer the more risky wager of Over 6.5 at plus-money odds.
The New York Mets' five-game winning streak may not be sustainable since all five wins have been by one run. However, their offense has come to life with five-plus runs in four of the last s ix games, largely because of Pete Alonso's 10 RBIs over the previous seven days. Alonso has been the epitome of an all-or-nothing hitter in that stretch, as four of his six hits (in 29 at-bats) have been home runs. However, the Mets are consistently putting more traffic on the basepaths in front of him, so he should have more opportunities to drive in runs other than doing it himself by leaving the yard.
Alonso is 3-for-11 in his career against Drew Smyly but has an impressive .970 OPS thanks to two extra-base hits (including one home run). Smyly's ground ball rate (35%) is on pace to be his lowest since 2019, which means Alonso should do damage with elevated balls, especially if the wind at Wrigley Field is cooperating.
The best value is at DraftKings, as bettors who risk $100 at Caesars would return $127 in profit.
Is a healthy lineup all the San Francisco Giants needed to play the kind of baseball they expected to play? Following series losses to the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks, the Giants have won six of seven games against the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins – two teams they figure to be contending for wild-card spots with – and Monday's season opener against the Minnesota Twins. They have scored at least four runs in all but one of those seven games, as Brandon Crawford and Mike Yastrzemski have returned from the IL to deepen the lineup.
Minnesota Twins righty Sonny Gray has not allowed a home run in 51 consecutive innings, which is two outs shy of the active record held by Zac Gallen. Thus, while one of San Francisco's biggest strengths may be negated (the team has hit the sixth-most home runs in the majors), it ranks in the top eight in BABIP over the last seven days. This is a three-star play, as Gray has not been as dominant as his 1.64 ERA suggests, as his xERA is 3.16.
Caesars also offers plus-money odds at this number, but at slightly worse value (+120).
Tuesday's MLB game picks
Jose Berrios on the road against a Rays offense that leads the majors in nearly every statistical category does not inspire much confidence. The Toronto Blue Jays righty has pitched four more innings on the road than at home this year, and his ERA and WHIP are 6.67 and 1.447 away from home compared to 2.22 and 1.027 at the Rogers Centre. This is a four-star play, as Berrios is 0-3 with an 8.68 ERA in four career starts at Tropicana Field, facing arguably the best Rays offense he has ever faced in that span.
The Rays are 3-1 with a run differential of +16 in Taj Bradley's four starts, which has us opting for more value laying the -1.5 runs.
FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering higher than +155 odds to lay the -1.5 runs with Tampa Bay.
MLB best bets made 5/23/2023 at 6:24 a.m. ET.
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