A rarely scheduled doubleheader leaves us with a more than full 16-game Major League Baseball slate to start the weekend. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds from our top sports betting apps.
The New York Yankees got back Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton from IL stints and both made immediate impacts, combining for three home runs and four RBIs in Friday's series opener against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Unfortunately, that was all the offense the Yankees got in an 8-4 loss.
Elsewhere, Manny Machado went 0-for-4 in his return to the San Diego Padres lineup in a 2-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs. Will the return of these players pay off in wins for their respective clubs Saturday?
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday (odds via DraftKings and Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Saturday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-105) vs. Boston Red Sox (-115) Game 1
- Tampa Bay Rays (OFF) vs. Boston Red Sox Game 2
- Detroit Tigers (+140) vs. Chicago White Sox (-165)
- St. Louis Cardinals (-140) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+120)
- Seattle Mariners (+125) vs. Texas Rangers (-145)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-120) vs. Washington Nationals (+100)
- Los Angeles Angels (+150) vs. Houston Astros (-175)
- Colorado Rockies (+125) vs. Kansas City Royals (-145)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-115) vs. New York Mets (-105)
- Oakland Athletics (+165) vs. Miami Marlins (-195)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-115) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-105)
- Cleveland Guardians (+120) vs. Minnesota Twins (-140)
- New York Yankees (-130) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (+110)
- Baltimore Orioles (+ 110) vs. San Francisco Giants (-130)
- Chicago Cubs (+145) vs. San Diego Padres (-170)
- Atlanta Braves (-205) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+175)
Saturday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Andrew McCutchen Over 0.5 runs scored (-105 via DraftKings) vs. Cardinals ???
- Player prop: Akil Baddoo Under 0.5 hits (+150 via DraftKings) vs. White Sox ????
- Player prop: Drew Smyly Over 3.5 strikeouts (-149 via Caesars) vs. Padres ????
- Total: Yankees-Dodgers Over 8.5 (-120 via DraftKings) ????
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Saturday's MLB prop picks
Andrew McCutchen leads the Pittsburgh Pirates with a .375 on-base percentage, which is a big reason why he ranks second on the team with 29 runs scored.
McCutchen should benefit from the righty-lefty split against St. Louis Cardinals southpaw Jordan Montgomery, against whom he is 4-for-11 in his career. McCutchen has produced a 1.144 OPS in that span with zero strikeouts, suggesting he sees the ball well out of Montgomery's hand. And McCutchen hits ahead of the red-hot Bryan Reynolds in the lineup, who has 13 RBIs in his last 12 games, which followed a streak of 14 games without driving in a run to start the month.
This is a three-star play, as the Cardinals have lost nine consecutive games started by Montgomery, with the opposition averaging 5.1 runs per game in that span. This line is as high as -145 at FanDuel, making the -105 odds at DraftKings seem like a steal by comparison.
Akil Baddoo has the third-highest WAR of any Detroit Tigers hitter, despite ranking sixth in total bas es (48). His high WAR rating is likely due to his great eye at the plate, ranking in the 91st percentile in walks and 63rd in strikeouts.
However, Baddoo's offensive ceiling is limited Saturday as he faces Chicago White Sox ace Dylan Cease, against whom he is just 1-for-11 with five strikeouts. Despite Baddoo hitting safely in six of eight games, this is still a confident four-star play as he ranks in the 12th percentile in barrels, while Cease allowed five or fewer hits in five of six May starts.
The Under 0.5 hits has +130 and +135 odds at Caesars and PointsBet, respectively, so we are again headed to DraftKings for the best value.
Chicago Cubs southpaw Drew Smyly is coming off a two-strikeout performance against the Cincinnati Reds, tying a season low. However, he struck out a season-high 10 batters against the best offense he has faced all season (the Los Angeles Dodgers), so the San Diego Padres' star-studded lineup that has scored the 24th-most runs in the league should not seem too intimidating.
Smyly's 10-strikeout performance against the Dodgers came in his second consecutive start against them. We expect Smyly to make similar adjustments the second time facing San Diego after striking out four Padres on April 26. The Padres rank in the bottom 10 in strikeout rate (23.6%) against southpaws. Thus, this is a four-star play, as Smyly's 22% strikeout rate is on pace to be his highest in a full season since 2019.
Those that were most confident in Smyly's chances of performing well should take a long look at FanDuel's +106 odds for him to exceed 4.5 strikeouts. As it is, we will head to Caesars who has the best price at an O/U of 3.5.
Saturday's MLB game picks
The New York Yankees may have ace Gerrit Cole on the mound, but he has been shaky, with 5+ earned runs allowed in three of his last five starts. He now faces the Dodgers' top-three scoring offense, which should inflate his 2.93 ERA, considering he pitched to a 5.00 ERA in three starts against top-three offenses when he faced the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays (twice).
To make matters worse, the two most feared hitters in L.A.'s lineup, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, have done the most damage against Cole. Betts and Freeman each have a 1.127 OPS or higher in their careers against Cole while going a combined 12-for-28 (.429) with four extra-base hits.
The biggest selling point for this wager is Dodgers starter Michael Grove and his 8.44 ERA. Grove has the second-worst WAR of any Dodgers pitcher and now faces a Yankees lineup that is bolstered by the returns of Stanton and Donaldson.
With most sportsbooks juiced to th e Under at a total of 9 runs, we do not mind paying up slightly for a line of Over 8.5 at DraftKings.
MLB best bets made 6/3/2023 at 7:09 a.m. ET.
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