Eleven of the 15 Major League Baseball games today are slated for the afternoon window, giving bettors plenty of opportunities to cash in early. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds.
Friday provided another opportunity to cash in on some of the sport's best hitters, as Aaron Judge homered for the seventh time in seven games, and Pete Alonso homered for the fourth consecutive game. And we are seeing some trends from a game-prop perspective, as the New York Mets won again and climbed to .500 despite having given up the first run in 13 consecutive games.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday (odds via FanDuel and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Saturday's MLB schedule and odds
- Kansas City Royals (+150) vs. Chicago White Sox (-175)< /li>
- Baltimore Orioles (+120) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-140)
- Chicago Cubs (+145) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-170)
- Colorado Rockies (+160) vs. Texas Rangers (-190)
- Detroit Tigers (-105) vs. Washington Nationals (-115)
- Miami Marlins (+140) vs. San Francisco Giants (-165)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-135)
- Cleveland Guardians (+140) vs. New York Mets (-165)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+185) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-215)
- New York Yankees (-155) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+135)
- Oakland Athletics (+245) vs. Houston Astros (-295)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-110) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-110)
- Seattle Mariners (+125) vs. Atlanta Braves (-145)
- Minnesota Twins (+100) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-120)
- Boston Red Sox (+105) vs. San Diego Padres (-125)
Saturday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Paul DeJong Over 0.5 RBIs (+180 via FanDuel) vs. Dod gers ???
- Player prop: Austin Hays Over 0.5 hits (-175 via FanDuel) vs. Blue Jays ???
- Player prop: Luke Weaver Over 4.5 strikeouts (-140 via PointsBet) vs. Yankees ???
- Total: Diamondbacks-Pirates Under 8.5 (+100 via PointsBet) ????
Saturday's MLB prop picks
St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong has had few opportunities for RBIs lately since Nolan Arenado has been consistently clearing the bases in front of him with a recent six home runs in eight games streak. DeJong's 10 RBIs are misleading since he has played in just 21 games (less than half of the Cardinals leaders), but he started on fire with a .364 average and three home runs in the first three weeks of the season after returning from the IL.
DeJong has had outstanding success against Los Angeles Dodgers righty Noah Syndergaard, going 6-for-11 with an OPS of 1.182. He hits behind Nolan Arenado in the lineup, who is also slashing .400/.500/.700 in 10 career at-bats against Syndergaard. And the Cardinals offense is getting hot, leading all teams by a wide margin in WAR, slugging, and wRC+ over the last seven days.
Thus, this is a three-star play since DeJong will likely have people on the basepaths to drive in, as long as Arenado is not doing it himself with more home runs. None of the other best sports betting apps offer RBI props for DeJong as of this writing, but be on the lookout if they pop up as they might offer better odds than FanDuel's +180.
Austin Hays leads all Baltimore Orioles hitters with a .303 batting average and ranks him in the top 15 in the majors. Thus, even given his lack of success against Toronto Blue Jays righty Alek Manoah, we expect him to break through in a big way today.
Hays is 1-for-13 with fiv e strikeouts in his career against Manoah. However, Manoah has struggled lately, with at least six hits allowed in four of his previous six starts. This is a three-star play since Hays has hit safely in 10 of 12 games, but we are not making this a four-or-five-star play, as Manoah's command issues (11 walks in his last 8 2/3 innings) may prevent opportunities for Hays to secure base hits.
FanDuel is an outlier among the best sports betting sites by offering well under -200 odds for this prop, as Caesars and DraftKings are at -208 and -210, respectively.
Cincinnati Reds righty Luke Weaver is often overlooked from a strikeout perspective, as his 8.9 K/9 rate ranks third in the team's rotation. However, he has six-plus strikeouts in three of five starts this year and should be facing a weary New York Yankees lineup that has spent the last several days battling two tough division rivals in the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays.
This is a three-star play, as eight Yankees have a strikeout percentage of 26% or higher, with five of those (Aaron Judge, Anthony Volpe, DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Hicks, and Jake Bauers) being everyday players of late.
Take advantage of this favorable line at the best sportsbooks, especially since this is playable at 5.5 strikeouts.
Saturday's MLB game picks
It is easy to be less confident in this wager after NL Cy Young favorite Zac Gallen was rocked for five earned runs and did not complete four innings yesterday. However, we find more value in this number as a result now that Arizona hands the ball to Brandon Pfaadt, the organization's No. 3 prospect. Pfaadt had struggled with six home runs allowed in just 9 2/3 innings entering his last start but can build off the momentum of a solo home run given up to the San Francisco Giants being the only hit he allowed over five strong innings. His biggest weakness should not be exposed by a Pirates lineup that has hit the eighth-fewest home runs (42) in the majors this season. Thus, there should be more solid outings ahead for Madison Bumgarner's replacement, as ZIPS projected him to be the team's second-best starting pitcher, with a 2.8 fWAR entering his previous start.
On the other side, there is no hotter pitcher in the National League than Mitch Keller, who has a 16 ? innings streak without allowing an earned run intact. In addition, Keller has not allowed a home run in five consecutive starts dating back to April 21. And per Inside Edge, opponents have a hard-hit rate of 24% against Keller's fastballs this season, which is the best among all qualified starting pitchers.
PointsBet is the only shop of the best live betting sites where one can find plus-money odds to back the Under.
MLB best bets made 5/20/2023 at 7:21 a.m. ET.
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- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
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