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The second half of the Major League Baseball season rolls on with a loaded 16-game slate, and we have identified our best MLB player props for Saturday based on the best sports betting sites.
Six of the 16 games played Saturday are divisional matchups, and two interesting divisional matchups bookend today's MLB predictions and player props.
The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees virtually play a standalone game as the only matchup played in the early afternoon window, as first pitch from Yankee Stadium is set for 1:05 p.m. ET.
The day concludes with an important AL West battle between the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners from T-Mobile Park at 9:40 p.m. ET, as the two teams are now deadlocked for first place.
Today's MLB predictions
MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+164 via FanDuel) ???
- Corey Seager Over 0.5 RBIs (+170 via bet365) ????
- Rhys Hoskins Over 0.5 total bases (-130 via DraftKings) ????
- George Kirby Under 5.5 strikeouts (+102 via FanDuel) ???
MLB player props for Saturday
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
| Odds | +150 | +164 | N/A | +155 | +160 |
Best odds: +164 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 37.88%
Aaron Judge entered the All-Star Break leading the league in nearly every single offensive category, including home runs, OPS, slugging, on-base percentage, extra-base hits, and RBIs.
He's playing at an eerily similar pace to his history-making 2022 season when he set the AL single-season home run record, as he batted .311 with a .686 slugging and 1.111 OPS that year. Judge hit .306 with a .679 slugging and 1.112 OPS in the first half of the season.
Judge takes aim on Saturday at Rays righty Taj Bradley, who has induced more fly balls than ground balls in nine of his 12 starts. Though Bradley has not allowed a home run in three starts spanning 18 2/3 innings, he has allowed an alarming six home runs in 20 1/3 innings on the road this year, while opponents have batted .309 in that split.
You're getting a $1.40 bigger payout on a winning $10 wager through FanDuel's odds compared to DraftKings.
Game info: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees | Moneyline: Yankees (-155 via bet365) | Total: 8.0 via bet365 | Start time: 1:05 p.m. ET
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| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
| Odds | +165 | +145 | +160 | +146 | +170 |
Best odds: +170 via bet365 | Implied probability: 37.04%
Corey Seager entered Friday on fire through 11 July games, with the best numbers in all slash line categories (.333/.417/.667) among qualified Texas Rangers hitters. Seager faces Baltimore Orioles righty Grayson Rodriguez, who has struggled with six-plus earned runs allowed in two of his last five starts.
Rodriguez could be in for another rough outing Saturday, as Texas ranks third in BABIP (.400) in July home games, and is in the top seven in OPS and wRC+ in that split.
A winning bet through these +170 odds at bet365 would pay out $27 on a winning $10 wager.
Game info: Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers | Moneyline: Orioles (-115 via bet365) | Total: 8.0 via bet365 | Start time: 7:05 p.m. ET
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| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
| Odds | -130 | -155 | N/A | -131 | N/A |
Best odds: -130 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 56.52%
Few players have had better offensive success against the pitcher they face on Saturday than Rhys Hoskins against Pablo Lopez, as he owns a 1.935 OPS in this matchup. Hoskins has made the most of his 11 career at-bats against Lopez, slashing .545/.571/1.364, with five of the six hits going for extra bases (including two home runs).
Hoskins homered in three of the seven games before the All-Star Break, and while Lopez's xERA (3.43) is much lower than his actual ERA (5.11), he still ranks in the 37th percentile for barrels.
I was shocked to realize that Hoskins' total bases prop was set at O/U 0.5 instead of 1.5, which is common for many sluggers. DraftKings is offering a manageable -130 price tag and a $17.69 payout on a winning $10 wager, so we are jumping at that opportunity. I'd also be fine with backing his 2+ total bases line at +185 odds.
Game info: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins | Moneyline: Twins (-125 via bet365) | Total: 7.5 via bet365 | Start time: 7:10 p.m. ET
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| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
| Odds | -120 | +102 | -120 | -115 | -115 |
Best odds: +102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 49.50%
George Kirby has had a ton of success against the Astros, going 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA in five career starts. Kirby has held current Astros hitters to a .212/.231/.222 slash line in 80 combined at-bats, but his 21.3% strikeout rate in that span does not suggest he will go Over this projected total.
The Astros have the third-lowest strikeout rate (18.8%) against right-handed pitchers this season, and though Kirby has recorded 18-plus outs in seven consecutive starts (with seven or more strikeouts in three of the last four), we expect Houston will take an aggressive approach at the plate.
Kirby faced seven teams that rank in the top six in strikeout rate prior to July, and his strikeout totals in those starts were: two, three, three, six, eight, four, and six. Though the eight-strikeout performance came against the Astros on May 29, Houston also whiffed just three times against him in six innings on May 3.
Thus, given that Kirby's implied probability to record five or fewer strikeouts is as high as 54.55% at DraftKings and BetMGM, we are jumping at the opportunity to back this wager at plus-money odds at FanDuel, as the payout is $20.20 on a $10 bet.
Game info: Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners | Moneyline: Mariners (-120 via bet365) | Total: 7.0 via bet365 | Start time: 9:40 p.m. ET
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