MLB Predictions & Player Props Today: Monday's Best Baseball Prop Bets

Major League Baseball provides bettors with plenty of opportunities with its bigger-than-usual 13-game slate on Monday, and we're scouring our best sports betting sites to help out the cause.

Two of Monday's 13 games are finales from a series that started during the weekend, and we look at them and more with today's MLB predictions and player props.

One of those contests is the only afternoon game on the slate, as the New York Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays at 1:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. New York's crosstown rivals, the Mets, also finish a four-game series at loanDepot park against the Miami Marlins at 6:40 p.m. ET.

In all, Monday is a popular day for divisional matchups, as eight of the 13 games pit teams against division rivals. The day also begins with a muddled NL wild-card picture, as eight teams are within four games of the last spot.

Today's MLB predictions

MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• David Peterson to record win (+130 via bet365) ???
• Lars Nootbaar Over 0.5 RBIs (+235 via bet365) ???
• Austin Riley Over 1.5 total bases (+125 via bet365) ????
• Ranger Suarez Under 2.5 earned runs (-137 via Caesars) ????

MLB player props for Monday

Best odds: +130 via bet365 | Implied probability: 43.48%

Mets southpaw David Peterson has made quality starts in four of his eight starts and is 4-0 in that span, with the team posting a sizzling 7-1 record when he toes the rubber.

Conversely, the Marlins are an MLB-worst 7-28 against left-handed starting pitchers, and though they beat Sean Manaea in Friday's series opener, the odds are stacked against them.

Peterson's worst start of the season came against Miami when he allowed season-highs in hits (eight), runs (four), and a season-low one strikeout in five innings, but he still earned the victory in what was his third start. We are also encouraged that he induced a season-high 14 ground balls in that outing, which bodes well for positive regression in this rematch now that he has kicked the rust off.

Considering New York's -165 moneyline odds at bet365 carry a 62.26% implied probability, Peterson's 43.48% implied probability to earn the win is more than fair, and a winning $10 wager would pay $23.

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Game info: New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins | Moneyline: Mets (-165 via bet365) | Total: 8.5 via bet365 | Start time: 6:40 p.m. ET

Best odds: +235 via bet365 | Implied probability: 29.85%

The St. Louis Cardinals face Pittsburgh Pirates righty Mitch Keller, who has won two of his 12 starts against the division rivals while pitching to a 3.97 ERA. Keller has allowed current Cardinals batters to hit a combined .278/.360/.496 slash line in 162 at-bats, and no hitter has a higher OPS in that span than Lars Nootbaar.

Keller has been especially poor against St. Louis this year, losing both starts while pitching to a 7.36 ERA and 1.546 WHIP. He hasn't beaten St. Louis since 2021, but even in that year, he posted a 6.10 ERA and 1.548 WHIP in two starts, so we are getting a great price for Nootbaar to drive in a run.

bet365 has the Over for St. Louis's team total of 3.5 juiced to -135, and if it scores four or more runs, that makes the 29.85% implied probability for Nootbaar to record an RBI seem low. The +235 odds at bet365 are a steal compared to the +170 at FanDuel, as a winning $10 wager would pay $6.50 more ($33.50 compared to $27).   

Game info: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | Moneyline: Pirates (-130 via bet365) | Total: 8.5 via bet365 | Start time: 6:40 p.m. ET

Best odds: +125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 44.44%

Austin Riley is on pace for his worst batting average (.258), on-base percentage (.329), and slugging percentage (.457) since the COVID-shortened season of 2020, which is in many ways a microcosm of the Atlanta Braves' struggling offense as a whole. However, as the weather has heated up, so has Riley, as his slash line numbers have increased dramatically for three straight months, culminating in a .293/.348/.621 slash line in July.

Eleven of Riley's 17 hits this month have gone for extra bases, and considering he has two or more hits in three of his last eight games, he is a great bet to go Over this projected total bases prop on Monday.

This is a four-star play, as Riley is 3-for-6 in his career against Hunter Greene, and Greene is not an elite ground-ball pitcher, ranking in the 16th percentile in that category.

Thus, we project Riley to have more of a 50/50 chance to record two or more total bases, making his 44.44% actual implied probability seem low. Should he accomplish that feat, the payout on a winning $10 wager is $22.50.

Game info: Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves | Moneyline: Braves (-160 via bet365) | Total: 8.0 via bet365 | Start time: 7:20 p.m. ET

Best odds: -137 via Caesars | Implied probability: 57.81%

The Philadelphia Phillies sent a franchise-record eight players to the All-Star Game, including a record five pitchers, and three from their starting rotation. Ranger Suarez has arguably been the best of the bunch, ranking in the 79th percentile in xERA, the 86th percentile in barrels, and the 92nd percentile in ground-ball rate.

The Minnesota Twins are a scary matchup for the southpaw on paper, as they rank second in the majors in batting average (.278) and slugging (.454), and fourth in BABIP (.319) against left-handed pitchers. However, they are a much less formidable lineup with the plethora of batters they have on the IL, as Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, and Jose Miranda are all injured.

Suarez's ERA has risen from 1.83 to 2.76 with three consecutive poor starts, but before that, he had allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight of nine starts. Should Suarez turn in another gem, the profit is $7.30 on a winning $10 wager.

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Game info: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins | Moneyline: Phillies (-130 via bet365) | Total: 8.0 via bet365 | Start time: 7:40 p.m. ET

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