The 2022 MLB playoffs are here. And if you have followed me since the beginning of the season, you should have several futures/world-series-odds”>World Series and pennant futures spread around the playoff bracket at juicy prices.
My goal each season is to build a portfolio of futures where — although I may not win a tremendous amount on any individual bet — I maximize my chances to turn a profit by betting into multiple markets.
I’m going to eat a loss on win totals (-0.32u), divisional futures (-2.28u), and stat leaders (-3.6u) for the first time in the four years that I provided my process publicly. However, we stand to profit +11.7u on player awards, provided Sandy Alcantara, Aaron Judge and Julio Rodriguez take home hardware next month.
After accounting for a slight loss on our Brewers futures (-0.75u) and our remaining portfolio of 4.3u allocated to remaining pennant and World Series futures, our worst-case scenario for futures — before any other additions — is a +0.45u profit for the season.