Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on both futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Sunday?
Series Moneyline Corner
First, let’s take a look at my updated projected series prices for both the ALCS and NLCS before Sunday’s games:
Only two MLB teams – the 2004 Red Sox and the 2020 Astros – have ever overcome a 3-0 deficit to force a Game 7. Still, the best number I could find on the Yankees’ series price and pennant odds was +2000 (4.76% implied) at DraftKings – roughly a half percent short of my break-even price.
You can find a minuscule 0.15% perceived edge on the Astros (-2200, or 95.65% implied) at FanDuel. I usually wouldn’t play them past -1515 (93.8%) compared to my series projection. And even then, that’s a ton of juice to pay compared to playing their moneyline in each remaining game.
The Padres are listed as high as +650 (13.3% implied), down 3-1, below both my break-even price of +663 and my price target of +801 (11.1%).
You can find the Phillies at a slight perceived edge at -650 at DraftKings. Still, I would need -562 (84.9%) to consider betting them at this stage.
Padres vs. Phillies, 2:37 p.m. ET
Yu Darvish vs. Zack Wheeler (full projections here)
Game 5 of the NLCS is a rematch of Game 1, with Zack Wheeler (3.10 xERA) facing Yu Darvish (3.49 xERA).
Before the series opener, I noted Wheeler’s late-season velocity uptick, which has continued into the playoffs. Wheeler sat at 97.2 mph in Game 1 – 1.3 mph above his 2022 regular season average but in line with his 2021 average when he contended for a Cy Young and posted a 2.79 xERA.
The Padres’ offense struggled against the fastball this season (23rd on a per-pitch basis), and Wheeler dominated with his four-seamer in Game 1, consistently getting ahead of hitters and setting up his curveball and slider for pitcher’s counts, with occasional usage on strike one in subsequent at-bats.
Zack Wheeler, Pretty 81mph Curveball. ??
8th K pic.twitter.com/sglZvKXR3Q