Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on both futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Tuesday?
Series Moneyline Corner
First, let’s take a look at my updated projected series prices for both the Divisional Round and the NLCS before Tuesday’s games:
The Guardians–Yankees series projection matches my Game 5 moneyline projection. As a reminder, you might find different prices in two markets (Game 5 money vs. series price) on the same book, so check both markets. We’ll get into Guardians–Yankees Game 5 on its own below.
And the same goes for the NLCS: you might find those odds under either series price or the NL Pennant markets. Make sure to check both.
I set the Phillies as a slight favorite of the NLCS and bet their NL Pennant odds at +110 on Sunday. You can play that line down to +107 (48.4% implied) at a two percent edge compared to my series line.
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees, 4:07 p.m. ET
Aaron Civale vs. Nestor Cortes Jr. (full projections here)
According to my projections, the Game 5 postponement helped the Yankees’ chances by 2.2% by allowing them to flip their starting pitcher from Jameson Taillon to Nestor Cortes and giving their key relievers an extra day of rest.
Cortes (2.70 xERA) was far more effective than Taillon (4.20 xERA) this season but will also stick the Guardians back in their lesser split; Cleveland’s offense ranked above average against righties (104 wRC+, 11th) and carried the lowest strikeout rate in baseball, but fell to 27th against lefties (86 wRC+) while ranking in the bottom two for isolated power and slugging percentage.
Perhaps those splits will be slightly negated by Cortes taking the ball on short rest. Still, the Yankees should have an advantage in the early innings, and they can rely upon a now-rested bullpen once Cortes gets into trouble.
The southpaw relies on a fastball/cutter/slider pitch mix, and should continue to have success against a Guardians offense that ranks as average or below against all three of those pitch types (27th, 17th, and 13th, respectively).
Nestor Cortes, Elevated 86mph Cutter. ?? pic.twitter.com/vBSUT9PgdW
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 14, 2022
I expect the Guardians to stick with Aaron Civale (3.80 xERA) at least once through the order before turning to their own bullpen or possibly Shane Bieber (3.51 xERA) on short rest for a trip through the heart of the Yankees’ lineup.
Civale was a bit unlucky this season (4.92 ERA), stranding 62.5% of baserunners (72.3% career, league average 72.6%) with a BABIP roughly 10 points higher than league average and 20 points above his career norm.
Civale does carry a home run problem (career 1.33 HR/9) — a potential issue against the best home run-hitting team in the majors –, and he has shown reverse splits for his career (3.81 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.36 vs. righties) while relying on a cutter, curveball and sinkerball mix.
Civale bumped his curveball to a career-high usage rate this season (27.5%, +11.3% year over year), and it proved to be his most effective pitch on a per-pitch basis.
3 pitches.
3 curves.
3 whiffs.What a way to end an outing from Aaron Civale. pic.twitter.com/AWcfgDJY2N
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) September 22, 2020