Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on both futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Saturday?
Here are my updated series moneyline projections for the Wild Card round:
Our positions from before Game 1 on the Phillies (+120) and Padres (+150) are in good shape, while our bet on the Rays (+110) is obviously in peril. Hopefully, we go 2-1 at worst on those three plus-money bets.
Looking at the updated futures market before Game 2, I would pass on adding more to Guardians-Rays or Phillies-Cardinals.
I would need something closer to -253 (71.7% implied) to back Philadelphia at a two percent edge, and the best price I can find overnight is -275 at DraftKings. We’ll ride both our series moneyline and win series 2-0 prop (+265) into Game 2.
I don’t see value in betting more on the Guardians-Rays matchup. The favorite is closer to the value side (-350 at MGM), but I would need a price nearer to -310 (75.6% implied) to consider backing the AL Central champions.
The Blue Jays are worth betting to come back and defeat the Mariners, and I bet Toronto’s series price at +210 (Caesars) before Game 2.
I project the Blue Jays as roughly 59.5% favorites in either of their next two games, and the fair odds at that projection would be closer to +182 as a moneyline rollover.
Usually, my price target would be closer to +174 (36.5%), at a two percent edge compared to my series price. However, +182 seems like a more suitable price target, considering a rollover likely gets you to those odds'or better.
I would consider adding to my Padres position at -191 (65.6% implied) or better or playing back on the Mets at +229 (30.4% implied) or better, though I doubt either team reaches that price target. And I have straight bets on the Padres for Game 2, anyway.
Tyler Glasnow vs. Triston McKenzie (full projections here)
Glasnow returned this September after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August of 2021. He’s only tossed 13 2/3 innings across six minor league and major league appearances and thrown 235 pitches this season.
The early signs are encouraging (6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 10 K) — including a three-inning stint against the Guardians — and his velocity has seemingly returned to previous levels:
Still, the sample is limited, and it’s equally likely that a pitcher just one year removed from Tommy John suffers a setback as it is that he continues to progress in his recovery.