We have a full day of baseball action, so with no time to waste, let's check out our top MLB player props and expert picks for Wednesday based on the best MLB odds.
Thursday's getaway day slate isn't as small as usual, with 10 games scheduled for tomorrow. Therefore, there are fewer games packed into Wednesday afternoon, providing us with a more full day of MLB action.
We get started at Busch Stadium, where Arizona Diamondbacks southpaw Jordan Montgomery takes on his former team, the St. Louis Cardinals at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Then, we have another showdown between the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Angels. First pitch is expected for 4:07 p.m. ET, and Angels fans will hope their team can get to Orioles starter Dean Kremer the same way it did Grayson Rodriguez on Tuesday.
Finally, the night winds down with another battle between AL W est rivals and World Series odds contenders, as the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers square off once again. First pitch is expected for 8:05 p.m. ET, with the Mariners looking to extend their lead in the division.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Wednesday (MLB picks based on odds via our
best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wednesday's MLB expert picks
- Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 strikeouts (+102 via BetRivers) ????
- Dean Kremer Under 5.5 strikeouts (-128 via FanDuel) ????
- Clarke Schmidt Under 7.5 strikeouts (-130 via bet365)????
- Spencer Arrighetti Under 5.5 strikeouts (-140 via DraftKings) ????
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MLB player props
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 4.5 (-105) | Under 4.5 (-113) | Under 4.5 (-105) | Under 4.5 (-104) | Under 4.5 (-110) |
Game info: Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals | Moneyline: Diamondbacks (-120 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (-120)/Under 7.5 (+100) via Betway | Start time: 1:15 p.m. ET
Offseason addition Jordan Montgomery has made just one start this season for the Arizona Diamondbacks after signing with the team right before the campaign began. He managed to go six innings, allowing just four hits and one earned run. However, he struck out only three, and the big southpaw hasn't exactly been a strikeout specialist for the last two years, managing only around 7.95 punchouts per nine across 367 innings.
Monty faces the team he played with for the second half of the 2022 campaign and first half of 2023. So, not only should the St. Louis Cardinals have a fairly good idea of what he brings to the table, but they also rank right around the middle of the pack this season in terms of strike out rate.
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According to our trusted projections, Montgomery is expected to record only 4.1 strikeouts on Wednesday. Based on that total, we're getting just better than 23% positive expected value on this bet.
As you can see, BetRivers is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering plus-money odds for this Under, while Pinnacle – which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry – is already at -126.
Best odds: +102 via BetRivers
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 5.5 (-145) | Under 5.5 (-128) | Under 5.5 (-154) | Under 5.5 (-145) | Under 5.5 (-155) |
Game info: Orioles vs. Angels | Moneyline: Orioles (-130 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-135)/Under 8.5 (+110) via Betway | Start time: 4:07 p.m. ET
Baltimore Orioles right-hander Dean Kremer will hope on Wednesday that he doesn't follow in the footsteps of teammate Grayson Rodriguez, who the Los Angeles Angels tagged for seven earned runs over just 4 1/3 innings on Tuesday.
For his part, Kremer has been pretty poor this season, as his 6.01 expected ERA and 5.25 FIP indicate his 4.91 ERA is due for some regression. Additionally, he's striking out just 6.95 hitters per nine.
Now, we've been burned by betting Unders against this weird and sometimes awful Angels team before, but we're going to trust MLB MVP odds contender Mike Trout and Co. on Wednesday.
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We're taking Kremer's average projection from all three of our trusted models, as they're mostly aligned on his total. That number comes out to 4.55, and based on that projection, we're getting 23% +EV on this bet.
These -128 odds are easily the best among any of our best sports betting apps, and Pinnacle is already at -158. Be sure to use our exclusive FanDuel promo code and get this price before it's gone.
Best odds: -128 via FanDuel
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 7.5 (-150) | Under 7.5 (-146) | Under 7.5 (-154) | Under 7.5 (-175) | Under 7.5 (-130) |
Game info: Athletics vs. Yankees | Moneyline: Yankees (-210 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (+100)/Under 8.5 (-120) via Betway | Start time: 7:05 p.m. ET
This game feels like the perfect storm for an Over, as New York Yankees right-hander Clarke Schmidt is managing a career-best 10.35 K/9 across his first four starts of the season and the Oakland Athletics strike out at the highest rate in the majors. Even ground-ball specialist Marcus Stroman managed nine punchouts on Tuesday.
So, why would we possibly take the Under in this one?
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Well, judging by both our projections and sharp action at Pinnacle, this total is likely one strikeout too high. Now, the average projection for Schmidt from two of our trusted models is a strangely low 4.78, but even the outlier high total that I didn't factor into that is only 5.32. Therefore, even the most optimistic projection model still doesn't have Clarke coming close to clearing this total.
We see how our other best sportsbooks are treating this line, as well, with the Under heavily juiced across the board. Pinnacle opened with its Under priced at -101, and it's been smashed to -193.
This line will likely drop to 6.5 relatively soon, but these -130 odds at bet365 will be gone long before that, so make sure you act quickly!
Best odds: -130 via bet365
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 5.5 (-140) | Under 5.5 (-170) | Under 5.5 (-149) | Under 5.5 (-147) | Under 5.5 (-150) |
Game info: Astros vs. Cubs | Moneyline: Pick'em (via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (-125)/Under 7.5 (+105) via Betway | Start time: 7:40 p.m. ET
Um, are the Houston Astros bad? They sure look the part, losing again on Tuesday to move to 7-17 on the season, behind even the lowly Athletics in the AL West.
The Chicago Cubs will once again look to take advantage of Houston's struggles, and they'll square off against rookie right-hander Spencer Arrighetti, who's made two starts this season but lasted only seven combined innings.
Arrighetti has issued five walks and allowed 11 hits, striking out eight in those appearances. On Wednesday, he gets a Cubs team that ranks middle of the pack in strikeout rate but is top five in walk rate and top 10 in home runs. It could be a long (read: short) day at the office for the kid.
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Our projections support that notion, too, as Arrighetti is projected to record only 4.28 punchouts on Wednesday, well below the six he'd need to go Over this total. Based on that projection, we're getting nearly 26% +EV on this bet through DraftKings' -140 odds.
Pinnacle is already as short as -196, and, like Schmidt's, this total could drop down one strikeout before first pitch.
Best odds: -140 via DraftKings
MLB player props made Wednesday at 8 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
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- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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