MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Wednesday's Best Prop Bet

There should be scoring galore with the matchups today as we highlight our MLB player props and expert picks for Wednesday based on the best MLB odds.

If you enjoy high scoring games, Wednesday's MLB slate is loaded with potential.

With games starting in the early afternoon and going until nearly midnight, my first player prop focuses on the Colorado Rockies and Houston Astros in their 2:10 p.m. ET matchup.

Then, I head to the AL East, where two World Series odds contenders are being led by MLB MVP odds candidates. First, the Baltimore Orioles take on the Cleveland Guardians at 6:35 p.m. ET, and not long after, the Subway Series gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET between the New York Yankees and New York Mets.

Finally, my last prop involves a surging former No. 1 overall pick as the Minnesota Twins look to bounce back at 9:40 p.m. ET against the Arizo na Diamondbacks. 

Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Wednesday.

Wednesday's MLB expert picks

MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Jose Altuve Over 1.5 total bases (+110 via DraftKings) ????
• Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 runs (-120 via bet365) ????
• Aaron Judge Over 0.5 home runs (+186 via FanDuel) ???
• Royce Lewis Over 1.5 total bases (-115 via bet365) ???

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MLB player props

Game info: Rockies vs. Astros | Moneyline: Astros (-200 via bet365) | Total: Over 8.5 (+100)/Under 8.5 (-120) via bet365 | Start time: 2:10 p.m. ET

It appears that Altuve does not age, or the Astros have gotten so good at sign stealing that he can hit over .300 forever. The eight-time All-Star has been one of the best bats in MLB this month, slashing .329/.367/.494 in June.

Altuve is coming off back-to-back two-hit games and has accumulated 38 hits in his last 29 games while going Over 1.5 total bases 14 times (48.3%). In his last last 10 games, he's finished with at least two total bases six times and is averaging two per game in 21 games in June.

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That hot streak should continue against the Colorado Rockies, who are trotting Ryan Feltner out to the mound against Houston. Fetlner Has been atrocious this season giving up 97 hits, 54 earned runs, and 12 home runs in 80 2/3 innings. He lives off two pitches, his four-seamer (35.1%) and slider (29.6%).

Those are Altuve's two favorite pitches to see this season. He's batting .344 with a .634 SLG against four-seamers and .303 with a .470 SLG against sliders. Which is why I love the plus-money value with these odds. They only imply a 47.62% win probability but pay an $11 profit on a $10 bet.

Best odds: +110 via DraftKings

Game info: Guardians vs. Orioles | Moneyline: Orioles (-185 via bet365) | Total: Over 9.5 (-115)/Under 9.5 (-105) via bet365 | Start time: 6:35 p.m. ET

Yesterday, I took the Over on hits allowed (5.5) by Cleveland pitcher Logan Allen against this bomb-hitting Baltimore lineup. That paid off, with Allen giving up nine and being pulled after three innings. While the Orioles managed to lose anyway, I'm going back to them again against the Guardians.

Cleveland is tossing Carlos Carrasco and his 5.40 ERA out against Baltimore, and he's bound to be hit hard. Leading the charge should be Rutschman, who matches up well with Carrasco. In four games this month, Carrasco has allowed 21 hits, 13 runs, and two dingers, and opponents are slashing .276/.317/.434 against him.

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That's got to be music to Rutschman's ears given how strong he's looked in June. This month, he's batting .309 with eight extra-base hits, 13 walks, and has scored 13 runs. The 37-year-old Carrasco uses four pitches more than 15% of the time, and Rutschman is batting .314 or better against three of them.

All we need him to do is get on base and have his talented teammates bring him home. The Orioles lead the league in runs (413) for a reason: their bats get the job done. As a team, Baltimore leads the league in SLG (.459) and total bases (1,261). These odds imply a 54.55% probability that Rutschman scores a run with a $10 bet, paying out $18.33.

Best odds: -120 via bet365

Game info: Yankees vs. Mets | Moneyline: Yankees (-150 via bet365) | Total: Over 8.5 (-115)/Under 8.5 (-105) via bet365 | Start time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Like Judge, we're swinging for the fences on this prop. For most players, betting them to hit a home run is a bigger gamble, but with Judge, he's getting odds as short as +130, which implies a 43.48% probability he'll mash one to the Statue of Liberty.

The reason he's catching such short odds isn't just because he's the best home run hitter in baseball, it's also thanks to his matchup with Mets starter Sean Manaea. Manaea predominantly uses his sinker (39.5%), a pitch that Judge is batting .370 against with a .804 SLG.

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It doesn't help Manaea's case that he's allowed six home runs in his last six starts. And now he has to buck that trend against Judge? I don't think so. Judge leads the league in homers (29) and SLG (.700) and seems to only be getting better. He's slashing .386/.500/.871 this month with nine home runs in 20 games.

While these odds only imply a 34.97% win probability, Judge has hit a home run in 47.9% of his games the last two months – 23 in 48 games. That's why I'm happy to take this calculated risk with a $10 bet, paying an $18.60 profit. 

Best odds: +186 via FanDuel

Game info: Twins vs. Diamondbacks | Moneyline: Twins (-120 via bet365) | Total: Over 9 (-110)/Under 9 (-110) via bet365 | Start time:  

The only non-All-Star we're backing today is well on his way to becoming one. Former No. 1 pick Lewis has been a rockstar since returning from a quad injury that cost him the first two months of the season. Lewis is slashing .309/.377/.750 this month with nine home runs in 18 games.

The 25-year-old has been the catalyst for a Twins offense that's quickly becoming one of the scarier matchups in baseball. Diamondbacks start Ryne Nelson could be its latest victim with how he matches up with Lewis.

Nelson almost exclusively uses his four-seamer (49.8%) and cutter (23%). Lewis has been rocking those pitches this season with a .300 average and .800 SLG against four-seamers and a .2 86 average and .714 SLG against cutters – of his 13 extra-base hits this year, seven have come against fastballs.

With how Lewis has been smashing the seams out of baseballs this month, these odds imply a 53.49% probability he'll continue to do so against Nelson. A $10 winning bet on this prop pays an $8.70 profit.

Best odds: -115 via bet365

MLB player props made Wednesday at 8:45 p.m. ET.

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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Related pages

• Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)

  
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