There's no shortage of star power in our MLB player props and expert picks for Tuesday based on the best MLB odds, with some of the biggest bats in baseball set to mash.
Talk about a loaded slate of games on Tuesday, and we're looking at the Big Apple for our first two player props. First, the New York Mets head to the nation's capital to take on the Washington Nationals at 6:45 p.m. ET.
Then, Aaron Judge, the MLB MVP odds favorite, and the New York Yankees look to beat up on the lowly Cincinnati Reds at 7:05 p.m. ET. Speaking of MVPs, former NL MVP Christian Yelich leads the Milwaukee Brewers against the Colorado Rockies at 8:40 p.m. ET.
Finally, the Los Angeles Dodgers will look to show why they sit atop the World Series odds as they take on the Arizona Diamondbacks at 10:10 p.m. ET.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Tuesday.
Tuesday's MLB expert picks
MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Pete Alonso Over 0.5 home run (+270 via BetMGM) ??
- Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (-115 via Caesars) ????
- Christian Yelich Over 1.5 hits (+145 via FanDuel) ???
- Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-115 via bet365) ????
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MLB player props
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 0.5 (+255) | Over 0.5 (+265) | Over 0.5 (+270) | Over 0.5 (+265) | Over 0.5 (+250) |
Game info: Mets vs. Nationals | Moneyline: Mets (-140 via bet365) | Total: Over 9 (-115)/Under 9 (-105) via bet365 | Start time: 6:45 p.m. ET
Just like Alonso, I'm swinging for the fences with this player prop. It's always risky to back a home run prop, so that's why I recommend putting just half a unit down on this one, but there's reason to feel confident that it will hit.
Alonso is coming off his best month of the season after slashing .272/.387/.511 in June with five dingers in 24 games. He's already got 17 homers on the season, and he's taking on a young Nationals pitcher in DJ Herz, who's struggled with giving up home runs this season.
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The 23-year-old Herz has allowed five home runs in five starts and has a 2.1 HR/9 after allowing four in his last two outings. That's the price he pays for leaning so heavily on his four-seamer (57.2%) this season, a pitch Alonso loves to see. The Mets' slugger is crushing four-seamers to the tune of a .595 SLG with eight homers – he's also got a higher SLG against lefties like Herz this season (.512) than righties (.455).
While these odds only imply a 27.03% win probability, they pay a $27 profit on a $10 bet. Playing it safe with a half unit though, they still pay a $13.50 profit on a $5 bet.
Best odds: +270 via BetMGM
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 1.5 (-120) | Over 1.5 (-130) | Over 1.5 (-115) | Over 1.5 (-115) | Over 1.5 (-115) |
Game info: Reds vs. Yankees | Moneyline: Yankees (-200 via bet365) | Total: Over 8.5 (-115)/Under 8.5 (-105) via bet365 | Start time: 7:05 p.m. ET
If you backed Judge every game of the season no matter what, you'd surely come out up a few units. That's how good he's been this year, and that's why I refuse to quit betting on him, especially when he's got a favorable matchup against a pitcher prone to getting shelled.
Reds starter Graham Ashcraft is coming off a game in which he gave up nine hits, six earned runs, and two homers against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He's been getting toasted all season with a 5.45 ERA and 11 homers allowed. So he's probably been having nightmares about dealing with Judge.
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Ashcraft might need some witchcraft to get Judge out because his pitches aren't going to do the job. He's been living and dying, mainly dying, by his cutter (46.4%) this season. That's a pitch Judge has a disgusting .471 average and 1.176 SLG against. He's also using his sinker 19.3% of the time, which Judge is hitting .396 against with a .774 SLG.
This could be a long night on a short leash for Ashcraft if Judge gets a hold of one of his pitches early. There's a 53.49% probability this prop hits with a $10 bet paying out $18.70.
Best odds: -115 via Caesars
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 1.5 (+120) | Over 1.5 (+145) | Over 1.5 (+125) | Over 1.5 (+110) | Over 1.5 (+130) |
Game info: Brewers vs. Rockies | Moneyline: Brewers (-120 via bet365) | Total: Over 11 (-115)/Under 11 (-105) via bet365 | Start time: 8:40 p.m. ET
It's been a long road back to the top for Yelich, who hasn't been the same player since winning back-to-back Silver Sluggers in 2018 and 2019. However, he's having a renaissance this season after finally getting healthy. His contact hitting appears to be all the way back.
Yelich is slashing .323/.399/.493 with 72 hits in 59 games this year. He's been especially impressive as of late with back-to-back two-hit games and eight hits in his last five outings. With 21 games of 2-plus hits (35.5%), Yelich can keep up the hot play against one of the league's worst starters.
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Ryan Feltner is set to take the mound for the Rockies, and he's bringing his 5.82 ERA with him. In 86 2/3 innings, Feltner is giving up 10.7 H/9 and has allowed seven or more in nine of 16 starts. He's also mainly using his four-seamer (34.6%) and slider (29%), two pitches Yelich is more than comfortable with this season.
Given that Yelich is batting .361 with a .556 SLG against four-seamers and .296 with a .593 SLG against sliders, I love the value of these +140 odds from FanDuel. They may only imply a 41.67% win probability, but they pay a $14 profit on a $10 bet.
Best odds: +145 via FanDuel
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 2.5 (-120) | OFF | Over 2.5 (-115) | OFF | Over 2.5 (-115) |
Game info: Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers | Moneyline: Dodgers (-190 via bet365) | Total: Over 8.5 (-125)/Under 8.5 (+105) via bet365 | Start time: 10:10 p.m. ET
If I'm backing the AL MVP favorite (Judge) then it's only fair I take the NL MVP favorite (Ohtani) to have a big game too. And why wouldn't he? He just hit 12 homers in 26 games in June while averaging three combined hits, runs, and RBIs per game.
Clearly he's stepping up with the Dodgers missing Mookie Betts for an extended period and that's not going to stop against the Diamondbacks. Arizona is starting Ryne Nelson, who gave up 10 hits and six earned runs the last time he was on the mound.
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Nelson has struggled throughout the season with a 5.69 ERA, 11.9 H/9, and 1.574 WHIP. It doesn't help that he's using his four-seamer 50% of the time, a pitch Ohtani hits harder than Ray Lewis hits a running back in the hole. Ohtani boasts a .333 average with a .741 SLG against four-seamers this season.
With Over 2.5 hits, runs, and RBIs in 10 of his last 13 games, I'm surprised these odds are longer than -130. At -115 there's a 53.49% win probability and a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit.
Best odds: -115 via bet365
MLB player props made Tuesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
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