With several high-profile bats taking on struggling pitchers on Tuesday, that's our focus in our MLB player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.
Nothing makes it feel more like summer than watching some of the best sluggers in baseball take a pitcher to task.
The Cleveland Guardians visit the Baltimore Orioles at 6:35 p.m. ET, kicking off a loaded Tuesday slate in the MLB. I'll look at the World Series odds-contending Orioles bats in that one.
My next pick backs Shohei Ohtani, an MLB MVP odds favorite, and how he can lead the Los Angeles Dodgers against the lowly Chicago White Sox at 8:10 p.m. ET.
My final two picks are in the final two games of the night, with the Minnesota Twins playing the Arizona Diamondbacks at 9:40 p.m. ET before the Chicago Cubs take on the San Francisco Giants at 9:45 p.m. ET.
Let's dive in with our MLB best bets for Tuesday.
Tuesday's MLB expert picks
MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Logan Allen Over 5.5 hits allowed (-110 via bet365) ???
- Shohei Ohtani Over 2.5 total bases (+105 via BetMGM) ???
- Brandon Pfaadt Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-104 via Caesars) ????
- Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-130 via bet365) ?????
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MLB player props
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 5.5 (-115) | OFF | Over 5.5 (-118) | Over 5.5 (-117) | Over 5.5 (-110) |
Game info: Guardians vs. Orioles | Moneyline: Orioles (-140 via bet365) | Total: Over 9.5 (+100)/Under 9.5 (-120) via bet365 | Start time: 6:35 p.m. ET
It hasn't been the easiest start to the season for Allen, who's in his second year in the majors. The 25-year-old has a 5.23 ERA and has given up 82 hits and 15 home runs across 75 2/3 innings.
His 9.8 hits allowed per nine innings is the worst among Cleveland's starters, and he's allowed at least six hits in eight of 15 starts (53.3%). While he hasn't given up over 5.5 in his last three outings, I feel confident because the Orioles have been hitting bigger bombs than the ones players used to put in their mouths before the tobacco ban.
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Baltimore leads the majors in total bases (1,228), home runs (125), and SLG (.440) and ranks top 10 in hits (681), average (.252), and OPS (.766). Gunnar Henderson leads the charge for the Orioles and has an over .500 SLG against Allen's top three pitches.
These odds imply a 52.38% probability Allen allows more than five hits, according to our odds converter, with a $10 bet paying a $9.09 profit.
Best odds: -110 via bet365
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 2.5 (-105) | OFF | Over 2.5 (+105) | Over 2.5 (-104) | Over 2.5 (+105) |
Game info: Dodgers vs. White Sox | Moneyline: Dodgers (-220 via bet365) | Total: Over 9 (-125)/Under 9 (+105) via bet365 | Start time: 8:10 p.m. ET
Mookie Betts going down opened the door for Ohtani to take home his third MVP and first in the NL. Clearly, he's burst through that opening by proving once again he's the most talented pure hitter of the baseball on the planet.
While betting on most players to get Over 2.5 bases is risky, when it's Ohtani, and he's taking on the White Sox, I feel pretty confident. Chicago looks like an AA team this season and they're throwing poor Chris Flexen to the wolves.
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Flexen, a career journeyman, has a 5.03 ERA with 73 hits and 11 homers allowed in 73 1/3 innings this season. The 29-year-old has allowed a dinger in each of his last three starts, and Ohtani could keep that trend going. He's got nine homers and 13 extra-base hits in June while slugging .679.
Ohtani is averaging 2.6 total bases per game this month and batting .342 with a .759 SLG against four-seamers, Flexen's top pitch. That's why I can't pass up the plus-money odds here. They may only imply a 48.78% win probability, but they pay a $10.50 profit on a $10 bet.
Best odds: +105 via BetMGM
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 2.5 (-110) | OFF | Over 2.5 (-115) | Over 2.5 (-104) | Over 2.5 (-110) |
Game info: Twins vs. Diamondbacks | Moneyline: Twins (-120 via bet365) | Total: Over 8 (-105)/Under 8 (-115) via bet365 | Start time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Are we sure the Minnesota Twins are getting enough credit right now? I know they're sitting second in the AL Central, but they've been a terrifying team to face for opposing pitchers since the return of Royce Lewis.
The Twins' next victim is Pfaadt, who I can't believe is getting odds this long to give up at least three earned runs against Minnesota. This guy wakes up allowing three earned runs and has done so in four of his last five starts.
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Pfaadt has a 4.37 ERA this season and has been at his worst in June. The 25-year-old has given up four home runs in four starts this month, with opponents slashing .275/.347/.484. And the Twins are a team that can take advantage, ranking seventh in the MLB in slugging (.420).
Lewis will be the catalyst for the offensive explosion – he's slashing .328/.397/.797 with nine dingers in 17 games since coming back from injury. Given Lewis is batting .300 or better and slugging .800 or better against Pfaadt's top three pitches, these -104 odds are a steal. They imply a 50.98% win probability and pay out $19.62 on a $10 bet.
Best odds: -104 via Caesars
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 1.5 (-135) | OFF | OFF | OFF | Over 1.5 (-130) |
Game info: Cubs vs. Giants | Moneyline: Cubs (-120 via bet365) | Total: Over 8 (-110)/Under 8 (-110) via bet365 | Start time: 9:45 p.m. ET
It's getting to a point where Ramos might be the most underrated player in baseball. The 24-year-old has unleashed in his first full season in the majors as he tries to do his best Barry Bonds impression.
While Bonds is an impossibly high player to reach, Ramos has been at an All-Star level and looks like one of the best young sluggers in the game. He's slashing .318/.390/.636 in June, with eight home runs in 21 games.
This month, he's finished with Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs in 13 games and is coming off a three-hit game against the Cubs. Chicago has Kyle Hendricks taking the mound tonight and I just feel bad for him. He's got a 7.46 ERA this season and Ramos is built t o annihilate him.
He has three pitches he uses over 10% of the time – changeup, sinker, four-seamer – and Ramos is hitting .321 or better against all three and has a .688 SLG or better against two of them. That's why these odds imply a 56.52% win probability, but they still pay a $7.69 profit on a $10 bet.
Best odds: -130 via bet365
MLB player props made Tuesday at 8:45 a.m. ET.
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