MLB Player Props & Expert Picks Today: Sunday's Best Baseball Prop Bets

The last day of the Major League Baseball regular season before the All-Star Break is here, and we have identified our best MLB player props for Sunday based on the best sports betting sites.

Sunday's 15-game slate gets started early at 11:35 a.m. ET, as first place in the AL East is on the line when the Baltimore Orioles host the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. That series is already heated, with the benches clearing late on Friday, and we have identified a hitter for the first of our MLB player props that we expect to add to the fireworks.

Elsewhere, the St. Louis Cardinals host the Chicago Cubs with first pitch from Busch Stadium at 2:15 p.m. ET, and we reveal our favorite pitcher prop for that matchup as those two teams look to continue closing in on the first-place Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.

Sunday's MLB expert picks

< i>MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 RBIs (+195 via bet365) ???
• Brayan Bello Under 4.5 strikeouts (+106 via Caesars) ????
• Jameson Taillon to record a win (+165 via bet365) ???
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 total bases (-115 via bet365) ?????

MLB player props

Best odds: +195 via bet365 | Implied probability: 33.90%

The Orioles have been in a rut offensively with just four total runs scored in their four previous games entering Saturday. However, one elixir for breaking out of an offensive funk is a matchup with Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodon, who has allowed 28 runs over his last 23 innings (10.57 ERA). Rodon has taken the loss in five consecutive starts, and has only induced six ground balls compared to 16 fly balls in his last two appearances, which bodes well for Baltimore's powerful offensive lineup.

It is likely that Rutschman will serve as the designated hitter instead of catcher with such an early start following yesterday's late afternoon game, but he is the Orioles player we are most confident in, based on his team-best 1.042 OPS and .379 batting average against southpaws.

Rutschman has gone without an R BI for six consecutive games, and he has only had one streak longer this season, but we are still getting great value on this wager at bet365, considering the implied probability for him to drive in a run is as high as 37.74% at FanDuel. However, the payout is $3 higher on a $10 winning wager by placing this bet at bet365 compared to FanDuel ($29.50 compared to $26.50).

Game info: Yankees vs. Orioles | Moneyline: Orioles (-115 via bet365) | Total: 9.0 via bet365 | Start time: 11:35 a.m. ET

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Best odds: +106 via Caesars | Implied probability: 48.54%

In his last start, Bello became the first Red Sox pitcher to record 11 strikeouts in the first four innings of a game in at least the divisional era (since 1969), per MLB's Sarah Langs. Bello induced the Oakland Athletics into a career-high 23 whiffs, with his slider (28% SwK) and changeup (45.5% SwK) being his most effective pitches.

However, we are selling high on Bello, as his slider and changeup induced a 13.8% SwK and 20.9% SwK before that start, while Oakland has struck out at the second-highest rate (26.9%) against right-handed pitchers this year while ranking in the bottom four in batting average and OPS in that split.

This is a four-star play, as the Royals strike out at the fourth-lowest rate against righties (19.1%), and they put a primary emphasis on making contact, even if they have the low est BABIP (.244) in road games against right-handed pitchers.

Considering Bello's implied probability is as high as 52.38% at FanDuel to record four or fewer strikeouts, we will jump at the +106 odds at Caesars, where a bettor would return $10.60 in profit on a winning $10 wager.

Game info: Royals vs. Red Sox | Moneyline: Red Sox (-130 via bet365) | Total: 9.5 via bet365 | Start time: 1:35 p.m. ET

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Best odds: +165 via bet365 | Implied probability: 37.74%

The Cubs are finally playing to the level that most thought they were as NL Central favorites entering the season, as their five-game winning streak entering yesterday's doubleheader was the longest active streak in baseball. 

Entering Saturday, Chicago had been 7-1 since July 4, and its pitching staff was one of the biggest reasons for that success. The team allowed 13 runs in that stretch, while its starters had an MLB-best 0.74 WHIP and 2.75 FIP and ranked second in BABIP (.197). 

Taillon made two starts in that stretch, winning both starts against the Philadelphia Phillies and Orioles while holding those top four offenses to four runs over 13 innings, with a 14:1 K:BB ratio. Taillon has troubling numbers against current Cardinals hitters, allowing a .308/.362/.465 slash line in 146 combined at-bats, but was one out away from throwing two quality starts in two appearances against them this year.

The Cubs lost each of those Taillon starts by one run (2-1 and 7-6), but he was the pitcher of record before the bullpen faltered late in that first start. We cannot ignore how well the Cubs are playing, and there is something to be said about the fact that Taillon's odds to record the win are shorter than the opposing pitcher's, Miles Mikolas (+215 at bet365), despite the Chicago being an underdog in the game.

Game info: Cubs vs. Cardinals | Moneyline: Cardinals (-130 via bet365) | Total: 8.5 via bet365 | Start time: 2:15 p.m. ET

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

Guerrero Jr. has done much of the heavy lifting for the struggling Blue Jays this season, but he entered Saturday in one of his worst offensive stretches of the year, slugging just .250 with one extra-base hit in 24 at-bats over the previous seven days.

Guerrero's OPS is 63 points lower against right-handed pitchers compared to lefties this year, and he has been a much worse hitter on the road, batting .255 compared to .318 at home. This is our most confident five-star play, as every one of his slash line numbers (.186/.213/.233) so far in July are his worst of any calendar month to this point, and he now faces Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen, who has maintained a solid 3.33 ERA despite ranking in the fifth percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. We expect Gallen to attack Guerrero with several curveballs, a pitch he throws 27.7% of the time, which he has used to hold opposing batters to a .148 OBA and .227 slugging.

FanDuel does not offer the Under on any total bases prop, but its -105 for him to go Over carries just a 51.22% implied probability. Thus, we are getting better value with the Under at bet365, while still returning a decent payout ($18.70 on a winning $10 wager).

Game info: Blue Jays vs. Diamondbacks | Moneyline: Diamondbacks (-150 via bet365) | Total: 8.0 via bet365 | Start time: 4:10 p.m. ET

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