MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Thursday's Best Prop Bets

The Fourth of July baseball slate is loaded with star sluggers, and we're offering our top MLB player props and expert picks for Thursday based on the best MLB odds.

Sure, fireworks are cool on the Fourth of July, but not as cool as baseballs being mashed to the moon.

That's why my player props for Thursday are focused on some of the best young bats in baseball, starting with Adley Rutschman and the Baltimore Orioles as they look to bolster their World Series odds at 4:10 p.m. ET against the Seattle Mariners.

Then, one of the breakout stars of the NL takes the field for the San Francisco Giants against the Atlanta Braves at 7:20 p.m. ET.

Finally, a pair of All-Stars – including MLB MVP odds contender Bobby Witt Jr. – take the field as the Kansas City Royals play the Tampa Bay Rays and the Milwaukee Brewers take on the Colorado Rockies – both s lated for 8:10 p.m. ET.

Thursday's MLB expert picks

MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 home run (+520 via FanDuel) ??
• Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 total bases (+112 via Caesars) ????
• Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 hits (+170 via FanDuel) ???
• William Contreras Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-140 via bet365) ????

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MLB player props

Game info: Orioles vs. Mariners | Moneyline: Orioles (-150 via bet365) | Total: Over 7 (-115)/Under 7 (-105) via bet365 | Start time: 4:10 p.m. ET

This is a calculated heat check. I've hit my home run props on back-to-back days, first with Pete Alonso and then with Yordan Alvarez. I'm hoping for a little Fourth of July magic with this one, but it helps that FanDuel is offering such a blatant outlier price to sweeten the pot.

It also helps that Rutschman has been cranking the top two pitches in Mariners' starter Bryce Miller's arsenal. Miller leans heavily on his four-seamer, using it 44.2% of the time this season. That's easily the pitch Rustschman loves to see the most this year – he's batting .365 with a .615 SLG and run value of 11 off of them.

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Miller's second most frequent pitch – sinker (19.2%) – won't give him any relief against Rutschman either. The now two-time All-Star has been even better against sinkers with a .371 average and .743 SLG – those are video game numbers. With 15 homers on the season, 11 of them have come against fastballs for Rustschman. That could be a problem for Miller, who has allowed 14 homers in 17 starts.

That's why I couldn't believe this price at FanDuel. Our other best sports betting sites have this prop as short as +375, implying a 21.05% win probability. But at this +520 price, a $10 winning bet pays a $52 profit.

Best odds: +520 via FanDuel

Game info: Giants vs. Braves | Moneyline: Braves (-125 via bet365) | Total: Over 8 (-110)/Under 8 (-110) via bet365 | Start time: 7:20 p.m. ET

While Heliot Ramos wasn't even a runner-up to be an All-Star starter, he's sure played like one since the beginning of June after entering San Francisco's starting lineup in May. The 24-year-old outfielder slashed .304/.375/.571 last month with eight dingers and 64 total bases.

He hasn't slowed down in July either, with five total bases in two games against the Braves. Over his last 29 games, Ramos is averaging 2.4 total bases per game and has 15 extra-base hits. He's been channeling the spirit of past Giants' greats like Willie Mays and Barry Bonds, and that's set to continue against Braves' starter Charlie Morton.

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The 40-year-old Morton has used his curveball an absurd 40.5% of the time this season, but that's just fine with Ramos. He's put up a .278 average with a .649 xSLG vs. curveballs this season. The only other pitch he uses more than 13% of the time is his four-seamer (28%) and that's an even better pitch for Ramos. He's hitting .327 with a .658 xSLG against them.

All of our best sportsbooks are aligned on this prop with Caesars offering a slightly better price than the others. The +110 odds imply a 47.62% hit probability with our +112 price paying an $11.20 profit on a $10 bet.

Best odds: +112 via Caesars

Game info: Rays vs. Royals | Moneyline: Rays (-125 via bet365) | Total: Over 8.5 (-120)/Under 8.5 (+100) via bet365 | Start time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Fresh off not being named the AL All-Star starting shortstop – that honor went to Gunnar Henderson – Witt should be looking for blood on Thursday. The 24-year-old has been neck and neck all season with Henderson for the second spot in the AL MVP race behind Aaron Judge, and he's not slowing down anytime soon.

After slashing .306/.353/.500 or better for the third straight month, Witt has come out hotter than a hotdog fresh off the grill to start July with seven total bases in two games. After a two-hit game on Wednesday against the Rays, he now has had a multi-hit performance in 34 of 88 games (38.6%) this season.

He should be able to log his second straight two-hit game against the Rays, too. Tampa is slated to start Zach Eflin, who leans on his sinker (32.2%), cutter (26.3%), and curveball (18.7%). Witt has had no issues putting those pitches into play with a .347 average against sinkers, .381 against cutters, and .310 against curves.

Once again, FanDuel has a bit of an outlier price on a longer odds bet, and I recommend jumping on it before it shortens. This same prop is +125 at our other best books, implying a 44.44% win probability, however, this price pays a $17 profit on a $10 bet.

Best odds: +170 via FanDuel

Game info: Brewers vs. Rockies | Moneyline: Brewers (-140 via bet365) | Total: Over 10.5 (-120)/Under 10.5 (+100) via bet365 | Start time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Having just earned his first All-Star starter selection on Wednesday night, William Contreras should be feeling pretty good as he gets set to play the lowly Rockies. Everyone knows that Coors Field is the easiest place in the majors to hit a homer, so theoretically Contreras could cash this prop in just one at-bat.

Even if he doesn't, the Brewers have been one of the best hitting teams in baseball this season. That means, it shouldn't be too difficult for him to be in position to get a hit, bring someone home, and score himself. He does lead Milwaukee in hits (102) and runs (59) after all.

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With Contreras averaging 2.5 hits, runs, and RBIs per game, he can bring a little extra juice in this matchup thanks to who the Rockies are putting on the mound. Colorado starter Cal Quantrill primarily uses his sinker (39.1%) and split-finger (34.4%), two pitches Contreras has found success against. He's dominated sinkers with a .359 average and .487 SLG and though it's a smaller sample size, he's hitting .333 off split-fingers.

Given Contreras already has nine hits, runs, and RBIs in three games in July, it's no surprise to see these odds so short. They imply a 58.33% probability he hits the Over with a $10 bet paying out $17.14.

Best odds: -140 via bet365

MLB player props made Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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Related pages

• Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)

  
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