MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Monday's Best Prop Bets

We're focusing on a few star bats in our MLB player props and expert picks for Monday based on the best MLB odds.

With 12 games taking place Monday in the MLB, there's plenty of All-Star sluggers to look at for our player props.

Kicking off our picks, we're focusing on the Philadelphia Phillies' showdown with the Detroit Tigers from Comerica Park at 6:40 p.m. ET. While Bryce Harper is the MLB MVP odds candidate taking the field, his teammate Trea Turner gets the more appealing matchup.

Heading south from there, the Tampa Bay Rays go head-to-head with the Seattle Mariners from Tropicana Field at 6:50 p.m. ET in a battle that favors the opposing pitcher.

Then at 7:45 p.m. ET, the Atlanta Braves look to continue bolstering their World Series odds against the St. Louis Cardinals before the Miami Marlins take on the Kansas C ity Royals at 8:10 p.m. ET.

Let's dive in with our MLB best bets for Monday.

Monday's MLB expert picks

MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Trea Turner Over 1.5 total bases (-115 via BetMGM) ????
• Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 total bases (+135 via bet365) ???
• Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 total bases (-115 via BetMGM) ???
• Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 hits (+125 via bet365) ????

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MLB player props

Game info: Phillies vs. Tigers | Moneyline: Team (-170 via bet365) | Total: Over 8.5 (+105)/Under 8.5 (-125) via bet365 | Start time: 6:40 p.m. ET

Harper has been sizzling for Philly in 2024, but the Phillies are such a terrifying team for opposing pitchers because of their loaded lineup. With Trea Turner back in the mix after missing about a month and a half, Philadelphia looks ready to elevate Tigers righty Casey Mize's ERA further (4.43).

Mize has given up 81 hits over 69 innings and won't be getting any relief against Turner and the Phillies. The hurler has been going to his four-seamer 39.8% of the time in 2024, and that's a pitch Turner loves to put in play. He's posting a .331 xBA and .587 xSLG against four-seamers.

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The only other pitch Mize uses more than 18% of the time is his slider (28.1%). While he's been enjoying some success with it in 2024, the starter is bound to get popped soon with opponents putting up a .291 xBA against his slider. And Turner may only be batting .250 against sliders in limited action this season, but in 2023 he was money against the pitch with a .331 average and .595 slugging percentage.

The shortest odds on this prop are -127, which imply a 55.95% win probability, according to our odds converter. But at our price, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit if Turner finishes with Over 1.5 total bases.

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM

Game info: Mariners vs. Rays | Moneyline: Mariners/Rays (-110 via bet365) | Total: Over 7.5 (-105)/Under 8.5 (-115) via bet365 | Start time: 6:50 p.m. ET

Everyone keeps waiting for his slump to break, but it just isn't happening for Randy Arozarena in 2024. Coming off an All-Star appearance and ALCS MVP, it looked like he was poised to be one of the league's best sluggers. Instead, it seems like he can't even see the ball.

While Arozarena has been better in June, he's still slashing just .190/.304/.350 in 2024 while going hitless in 33 of 76 games (43.4%). He's been taking advantage of lesser pitchers during recent matchups, but that won't be the case against the Mariners and Bryan Woo.

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The 24-year-old has been one of the best young pitchers in baseball with a 1.67 ERA across seven starts. He's only giving up 2.8 hits per start and has allowed zero runs in two of his last three outings. Woo lives and dies by his four-seamer while using it 52.9% of the time, and it's worked well with opponents hitting just .164 against it.

Arozarena is batting only .192 against four-seamers, so I like the value in these odds. Woo's only other pitch he really uses is a sinker at 26% of the time, which Arozarena is batting just .220 against.

At this price, a $10 bet pays out $23.50 with a 42.55% win probability.

Best odds: +135 via bet365

Game info: Braves vs. Cardinals | Moneyline: Braves (-120 via bet365) | Total: Over 8.5 (-115)/Under 8.5 (-105) via bet365 | Start time: 7:45 p.m. ET

Despite the plethora of injuries the Braves have been needing to deal with during 2024, Marcell Ozuna has been able to keep them in the thick of the World Series race. The two-time All-Star is putting together arguably the best season of his career with 21 homers while slashing .314/.390/.596.

He hasn't been showing any signs of slowing down either with a monstrous June. Ozuna has registered five homers, five doubles, and a .325 average across 20 games during June. He's also topped 1.5 total bases 13 times in those contests (65%) and should be capable of it again against Lance Lynn and the Cardinals.

Lynn relies heavily on his four-seamer while throwing it 42.1% of the ti me, and Ozuna thrives off that pitch. He's batting .386 with a .663 slugging percentage against four-seamers in 2024. And there's only one pitch Lynn uses more than 19% of the time (his cutter at 25.5%).

With Ozuna batting .316 with a .737 slugging percentage against cutters, it's no wonder these odds imply a 53.49% win probability. A $10 winning bet on this prop pays out $18.70.

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM

Game info: Marlins vs. Royals | Moneyline: Royals (-250 via bet365) | Total: Over 9.5 (-110)/Under 9.5 (-110) via bet365 | Start time: 8:10 p.m. ET

If not for Aaron Judge seemingly smashing every pitch into the stratosphere, Witt would be the favorite to win AL MVP at a few of our best sports betting sites. The Royals shortstop has levelled up in his third season and looks like one of the best all-around bats in baseball.

Witt should put together another MVP-level performance while taking on Marlins righty Roddery Munoz. He's slashing .314/.368/.542 against righties in 2024 with 34 extra-base hits. Despite struggling in his last three outings, this is a perfect get-right game for Witt.

Munoz has given up 11 home runs over just 29 2/3 innings, and the rookie is coming off a game in which he allowed eight hits, six earn ed runs, and three dingers. He's got a well-rounded pitch arsenal with four he uses over 18% of the time: has cutter (27.2%), four-seamer (24%), sinker (20.5%), and slider (18.1%).

But Witt is batting .318 or better against three of those pitches and boasts a .515 or higher slugging percentage. Even with the odds only implying a 44.44% win probability, I feel good about this prop, especially with a $10 bet paying a $12.50 profit.

Best odds: +125 via bet365

MLB player props made Monday at 8:45 a.m. ET.

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• Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)

  
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