It's a slightly lighter slate to start the week, but we still found plenty of value with our top MLB player props and expert picks for Monday based on the best MLB odds.
Monday's MLB schedule features only 11 games. However, there are still plenty of exciting contests featuring some of the top contenders by the World Series odds.
The action begins with an AL East showdown in Baltimore, as the Orioles host the Boston Red Sox at 1:05 p.m. ET.
There are a handful of matchups later in the afternoon, and we're targeting one for our first pick. The Los Angeles Dodgers and their duo of MLB MVP odds favorites will look to pick apart Tylor Megill and the struggling New York Mets at Citi Field, with first pitch expected at 4:10 p.m. ET.
Finally, the night concludes with an AL West matchup between the division leaders and surging perennial conte nders. The Houston Astros visit the Seattle Mariners, and we're focusing on a pitcher in that game, too.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Monday (MLB picks based on odds via our
best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday's MLB expert picks
- Tylor Megill Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100 via BetRivers) ????
- Taijuan Walker Under 3.5 strikeouts (+140 via bet365) ????
- Framber Valdez Under 5.5 strikeouts (+118 via FanDuel) ????
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MLB player props
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 4.5 (-125) | Under 4.5 (-126) | Under 4.5 (-125) | Under 4.5 (-123) | Under 4.5 (-110) |
Game info: Dodgers vs. Mets | Moneyline: Dodgers (-160 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-125)/Under 8.5 (+105) via Betway | Start time: 4:10 p.m. ET
First of all, we should really be fading New York Mets starter Tylor Megill every game simply for the way he spells his first name. If that's not reason enough, then let's do so because he's not very good.
Megill has been decent through two starts in 2024, but his track record tells us that the righty's 11 strikeouts per nine innings aren't sustainable. He managed only 7.48 across 126 1/3 innings in 2023, and the hurler's 4.66 career ERA is far higher than his 3.00 mark this season.
And now Megill and his well-documented walk issues gets to face the big bad Los Angeles Dodgers, who don't strike out a ton and own the highest walk rate in baseball. Of course, they also ent er this contest with the second-best wRC+ thanks to the collective greatness of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith – perhaps the most feared first four in any MLB lineup.
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Megill is projected to rack up only 4.2 strikeouts on Monday. Based on that projection, we're getting 18% positive expected value through these odds, which is the only even-money price across any of our best sports betting sites.
Meanwhile, Pinnacle – which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry – opened with its Under priced at this +100 mark. However, it's since been bet to -148, showing us that sharp action is on our side.
Best odds: +100 via BetRivers
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 3.5 (+130) | Under 4.5 (-172) | Under 3.5 (+130) | Under 3.5 (+123) | Under 3.5 (+140) |
Game info: Phillies vs. Giants | Moneyline: Pick'em (via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (-120)/Under 7.5 (+100) via Betway | Start time: 5:05 p.m. ET
Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Taijuan Walker has been a solid pitcher throughout his career. He owns a 3.99 ERA across 1,097 1/3 innings while accruing 13.1 fWAR. However, he's never been a particularly talented strikeout artist, and that's no different in 2024. Walker is managing just 7.09 punchouts per nine.
Walker squares off with the San Francisco Giants on Monday, who are just outside the top 10 in strikeout rate this year. The real challenge with this bet will be avoiding Mike Yastrzemski posting a golden sombrero. He's the outlier among the Giants' regular starters with his 31.1% K rate.
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However, our trusted projected models believe that shouldn't be an issue. Walker is projected to record 3.82 strikeouts based on the average of three models. Sure, that isn't a huge buffer from the four he'd need to clear this total, but these +140 odds still make this a 15% +EV bet.
We've also seen this line move in our favor at Pinnacle, which opened with its Under at 4.5 before dropping to 3.5. The opening odds for Under 3.5 were +134 (still worse than this price), and it now sits at +109.
Best odds: +140 via bet365
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 5.5 (+105) | Under 5.5 (+118) | Under 5.5 (-105) | Under 5.5 (-104) | Under 5.5 (+115) |
Game info: Astros vs. Mariners | Moneyline: Astros (-130 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (-105)/Under 7.5 (-115) via Betway | Start time: 9:40 p.m. ET
I can't believe we're doing it again, but yes, we're taking a strikeout Under against the Seattle Mariners.
For his part, Houston Astros southpaw Framber Valdez has regressed greatly in terms of his strikeout ability. Valdez cranked up his Ks in 2023 at the expense of a patented ability to generate ground balls (54.2%, which was down from 66.5% in 2022), and his ERA suffered. His ground-ball rate is back up to 65.3% in 2024, and he's striking out only 7.34 batters per nine.
Of course, the Mariners can make any pitcher look like prime Randy Johnson. They're striking out in nearly 28% of their plate appearances, far more often than even the second-highest rate. Howeve r, this team is too talented to continue to be that bad at the dish.
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Our trusted projection models agree, as Valdez is expected to record only 5.51 punchouts on Monday. Based on these +118 odds via FanDuel, we're getting roughly 15% +EV on this bet.
As you can see, the only other one of our best sports betting apps offering a competitive price is bet365. Pinnacle is more closely aligned with the other best sportsbooks, as its Under is priced at -103.
Best odds: +118 via FanDuel
MLB player props made Monday at 8 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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