There are 12 games on tap following a wild weekend of baseball action, and we're offering our top MLB player props and expert picks for Monday based on the best MLB odds.
Major League Baseball has made many changes during the last couple of years, but it continues to ignore the most obvious improvement (OK, second-most after robot umps): There needs to be at least one afternoon game every day.
Monday's action doesn't begin until 6:35 p.m. ET, but it does offer an exciting matchup between World Series odds contenders, as the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles square off.
Then there's a 7:40 p.m. ET clash between two teams off to surprising starts in 2024. The underachieving Tampa Bay Rays visit the Milwaukee Brewers, who occupy first in the NL Central despite being written off following Craig Counsell's exit this past offseason.
Finally, “MV3” roll into the desert, as Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and the Los Angeles Dodgers face the Arizona Diamondbacks at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Monday (MLB picks based on odds via our
best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday's MLB expert picks
- Ryan Pepiot Under 5.5 strikeouts (+126 via FanDuel) ????
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MLB player props
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 6.5 (-170) | Under 5.5 (+126) | Under 6.5 (-167) | Under 6.5 (-192) | Under 6.5 (-150) |
Game info: Rays vs. Brewers | Moneyline: Brewers (-115 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-105)/Under 8.5 (-115) via Betway | Start time: 7:40 p.m. ET
Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Ryan Pepiot is becoming a familiar name in these articles, as this is the third time we're targeting his strikeouts Under across his last three starts. He burned us while going Over on the hook against the Los Angeles Angels, but we earned our revenge in his last start against the Detroit Tigers. Now, this is the grudge match.
Pepiot has been impressive during his first season with the Rays. He owns a 3.77 ERA and is striking out 9.73 batters per nine innings. However, he's walking 3.14 per nine and has posted a .215 BABIP that's due for serious regression.
The Milwaukee Brewers possess all the tools to get to Pepiot on Monday. They own the league's sixth -best walk rate and sixth-highest wRC+. Milwaukee is also around the middle of the pack in strikeout rate.
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Pepiot is projected to record just 5.32 strikeouts on Monday, based on the average projection from three of our trusted models. Therefore, if you want to play the Under at one of our best sports betting sites with the total set at 6.5, you'll get a more significant cushion. However, this is the higher EV play.
bet365's -150 odds on Under 6.5 provide us with around 18% positive expected value, while we're getting roughly 27% +EV through these +126 odds at FanDuel.
Best odds: +126 via FanDuel
MLB player props made Monday at 8 a.m. ET.
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