We head into the weekend with an action-packed MLB slate on Friday, and we're offering our top MLB player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.
Unfortunately, there's no daytime baseball on Friday. The Chicago Cubs get the day started, but they're visiting the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park, so Friday afternoons at Wrigley Field will need to wait for another week. First pitch between the Cubs and Pirates is set for 6:40 p.m. ET.
Shortly after that, we get an AL East battle between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays at 6:50 p.m. ET from Tropicana Field, a game we're focusing on for our first player prop.
Friday night concludes with a showdown between the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants at 10:15 p.m. ET, but the main event is just before then.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, the World Series odds f avorites, visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres, with first pitch expected at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Friday (MLB picks based on odds via our
best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday's MLB expert picks
- Clarke Schmidt Under 5.5 strikeouts (-115 via DraftKings) ????
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MLB player props
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 5.5 (-115) | Under 5.5 (-120) | Under 5.5 (-125) | Under 5.5 (-127) | Under 5.5 (-130) |
Game info: Yankees vs. Rays | Moneyline: Yankees (-140 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (+100)/Under 8.5 (-120) via Betway | Start time: 6:50 p.m. ET
New York Yankees right-hander Clarke Schmidt has been solid in 2024, as he owns a 3.50 ERA and a 27.3% strikeout rate (good for 10.25 per nine innings) across his first seven starts. He's one of the reasons the Yankees have produced the second-best team ERA in the majors.
Schmidt faces a Tampa Bay Rays team on Friday that's striking out more in 2024 than we're accustomed to seeing. The Rays have often tortured pitchers in the past, driving up pitch counts with a high walk rate while rarely striking out. However, they own the eighth-highest strikeout rate in MLB and the eighth-lowest walk rate.
So, why are we taking Schmidt's strikeout Under on Friday?
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Well, if you follow my picks even semi-regularly, you know I only care about today's data. And Schmidt is projected to record just 4.86 strikeouts on Friday. Additionally, we've seen Pinnacle – which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry – move its Under from an opening number of +111 to -145.
Based on our projections, we're getting nearly 20% positive expected value through these -115 odds at DraftKings. Most of our other best sports betting sites offer a relatively competitive price, though none would meet my criteria for a similar four-star pick.
Best odds: -115 via DraftKings
MLB player props made Friday at 8 a.m. ET.
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