With the Major League Baseball trade deadline rapidly approaching on Tuesday, the 20 teams in action Monday might look drastically different in the next 24 hours. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday based on the best MLB odds from our
best MLB betting sites.
Of the 10 new series beginning Monday, six are between division rivals, with three of those having massive NL wild-card implications. The Philadelphia Phillies visit the Miami Marlins, the Chicago Cubs meet the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field, and the Arizona Diamondbacks visit the San Francisco Giants, with the six teams separated by just 4.5 games.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our World Series odds.
Monday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-115) vs. Miami Marlins (-105)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-130) vs. New York Yankees (+110)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-192) vs. Washington Nationals (+160)
- Baltimore Orioles (+120) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-142)
- Los Angeles Angels (+190) vs. Atlanta Braves (-225)
- Cincinnati Reds (+100) vs. Chicago Cubs (-120)
- Cleveland Guardians (+160) vs. Houston Astros (-190)
- San Diego Padres (-205) vs. Colorado Rockies (+170)
- Boston Red Sox (+115) vs. Seattle Mariners (-135)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+130) vs. San Francisco Giants (-155)
Monday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Christian Yelich Over 0.5 runs (-165 via DraftKings) vs. Nationals ???
- Player prop: Alex Cobb Over earned runs (OFF) vs. Diamondbacks ???
- Player prop: Seth Lugo to record a win (+110 via DraftKings) vs. Rockies ???
- Total: Orioles-Blue Jays Under 9 (-110 via BetMGM) ????
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Monday's MLB prop picks
The Atlanta Braves swept the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend, but it wasn't for lack of offensive success from the NL Central leaders. Milwaukee scored 18 runs in the series despite hitting just three home runs, one of which was by leadoff hitter Christian Yelich.
Yelich snapped a three-game streak without scoring a run with his homer in the series finale but had crossed the plate at least once in 12 of the 19 previous games since the All-Star break. Yelich is slashing .319/.379/.617 in July and has a .924 OPS against right-handed pitchers this year. He now faces Washington Nationals righty Jake Irvin, who has allowed a .280 OBA to left-handed hitters. In addition, Irvin has a 2.01 HR/9 rate against lefties and a 1.08 HR/9 rate against right-handed batters.
The – 165 odds at DraftKings are a steal considering Yelich is as high as -185 to score a run at FanDuel.
San Francisco Giants righty Alex Cobb leads the majors with a 1.09 home ERA and is one of two starting pitchers (Zac Gallen is the other) with a sub-2.00 ERA at home. However, Cobb has struggled against Arizona in his career, pitching to a 4.93 ERA in seven starts, and his 1.539 WHIP in that span is his highest against any opponent he has made seven-plus starts against. In addition, Cobb's 6.1 K/9 rate when facing the Diamondbacks is only lower against two other opponents. Meanwhile, Arizona ranks eighth or better in wRC+, BABIP, and slugging against right-handed pitchers in road games in July.
This is only a three-star play, as table-setters Geraldo Perdomo and Ketel Marte are a combined 4-for-23 against Cobb. But those two also entered Sunday each with a .350 or better batting average and OPSs of .958 or better since the All-Star break, so expect them to get the Diamondbacks offense going.
With the way Cobb has pitched at home, we would expect this line to be set at O/U 1.5 runs when it opens, but would play it up to 2.5 as long as we got plus-money odds in return.
This past week was a big one for the San Diego Padres, as they are being rumored more as a team likely to stand pat than to sell, given that they went 4-2 and are now just five games out of a wild-card spot.
The Padres rank fourth in slugging and eighth in wOBA and wRC+ in road games against left-handed pitchers. Now they go to Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly park in baseball, and face southpaw Austin Gomber, who has quality starts in four of his last five. However, he also has a 7.19 home ERA, the second-worst of all qualified starting pitchers. Gomber is also tied for the most home runs allowed in hom e starts (14), and his .315 OBA is third-worst.
Padres righty Seth Lugo also has four quality starts in his last five appearances and we trust him more in this matchup, primarily because of his career-best walk rate (4.7%) and wOBA of .285 or better on two of his three primary pitches.
Both PointsBet and Caesars also offer plus-money odds for this wager, but are lower at +100 and +102 odds, respectively.
Monday's MLB game picks
Chris Bassitt has been lights out at home for the Toronto Blue Jays. He has thrown quality starts in eight of his 10 appearances while pitching to a 2.24 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, .167 OBA, and almost exactly one strikeout per inning (64 K's in 64 ? IP). Bassitt and Kevin Gausman became the second pair of teammates to have six games of six-plus innings pitched and zero earned runs before July, per ESPN Stats & Info.
Bassitt is accustomed to pitching without run support, winning three of his last five starts while his team has provided an average of 2.57 runs. However, while the Blue Jays ranked outside the top half of the league entering Sunday since May 20, they were still an AL-best 34-25 in that span.
There is not much fluctuation in the odds across all major sportsbooks, as BetMGM is one of four major sportsbooks charging standard -110 juice at an O/U of 9 runs.
MLB best bets made 7/31/2023 at 7:22 a.m. ET.
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