Hurricane Hilary is expected to touch down on the West Coast on Sunday, so three games played in California were moved to Saturday as part of doubleheaders, bringing the Major League Baseball slate to a whopping 18 games. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds.
Seattle Mariners phenom Julio Rodriguez has been on an absolute tear lately, becoming the seventh player since 1900 to record 13 hits in a three-game span, per ESPN Stats & Info.
From a team perspective, the Atlanta Braves find new ways to impress each day, as they recorded a third straight shutout on Friday, tying a franchise record, per Sarah Langs. Will Atlanta shut out the San Francisco Giants today for a record fourth straight shutout?
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Saturday's MLB schedule and odds
- Boston Red Sox (+142) vs. New York Yankees (-170)
- Kansas City Royals (+154) vs. Chicago Cubs (-185)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-162) vs. Washington Nationals (+136)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+120) vs. Texas Rangers (-142)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-142) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+120)
- Detroit Tigers (+136) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-162)
- Seattle Mariners (+124) vs. Houston Astros (-148)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) vs. Minnesota Twins (-175)
- New York Mets (-112) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-108)
- San Francisco Giants (-102) vs. Atlanta Braves (-118)
- Chicago White Sox (-115) vs. Colorado Rockies (-105)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+120) vs. San Diego Padres (-142)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (OFF) vs. San Diego Padres
- Baltimore Orioles (-175) vs. Oakland Athletics (+145)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-120) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+1 00)
- Tampa Bay Rays (OFF) vs. Los Angeles Angels
- Miami Marlins (+160) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-192)
- Miami Marlins (OFF) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Saturday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Ezequiel Tovar to score a run (-120 via bet365) vs. White Sox ????
- Player prop: Zack Gelof Under 0.5 total bases (+140 via bet365) vs. Orioles ???
- Player prop: Logan Webb Under 3.5 earned runs (-160 via bet365) vs. Braves ?????
- Total: Red Sox-Yankees Under 8 (-102 via DraftKings) ????
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Saturday's MLB prop picks
Chicago White Sox rookie Jesse Scholtens made 14 of his first 16 appearances out of the bullpen this year and has seemingly cemented his spot in the rotation next season after three consecutive quality starts in which he has pitched to a 2.95 ERA. But two of those starts came against bottom-nine offenses in the league, and the longer Scholtens remains a starter, the more his weak metrics will be exposed.
Scholtens ranks in the 15th percentile or worse in whiff percentage and strikeout rate, which is alarming considering the Colorado Rockies rank second in the majors in BABIP in home games this year. In addition, Scholtens is much tougher on left-handed hitters than righties, allowing a .183 OBA to left-handed hitters and a .305 OBA to righties.
Tovar's 50 runs scored against right-handed pitching lead the team, and he is second in total bases in that split (131). He is red-hot with a .400/.444/.800 slash line over the previous seven days, and this is a four-star play, as his batting average and on-base percentage are 54 and 71 points higher, respectively, at home than on the road.
Among our best sports betting apps, Caesars and DraftKings offer slightly worse -125 odds compared to bet365's number, but all look like a steal compared to FanDuel's -150 odds.
Oakland Athletics rookie Zach Gelof has played 29 games this season, and the seven days entering Friday was one of his best stretches, as he slashed .440/.481/.880 over a 25 at-bat span. However, he was cooled off by the Baltimore Orioles' top notch pitching staff in the series opener (did not have a hit until the bottom of the ninth), and is now in his worse hitting split against southpaw Cole Irvin. Just two of Gelof's nine hits against left-handed pitchers have gone for extra bases, and his .730 OPS against southpaws pales in comparison to his 1.070 OPS against right-handed pitchers.
While Irvin ranks in the second percentile in xSLG, he ranks in the top-third of the league in hard-hit contact, and Baltimore's top-ranked bullpen in terms of FIP is ready to back Irvin up in case he gets into trouble.
bet365 is our go-to shop for this wager, as DraftKings offers slightly worse +130 odds.
While the Braves out-scored the New York Yankees 18-3 in a three-game home sweep this week, the Yankees held the Braves to a .161 batting average over the final two games (9-for-56), as Atlanta did most of its damage against Luis Severino, who is suffering through a career-worst stretch. Thus, San Francisco Giants righty Logan Webb figures to have success if he can keep the ball in the ballpark, and he enters this start with no home runs allowed in three August starts (spanning 21 1/3 innings).
This is a five-star play, as we were fully expecting an O/U of 2.5 and were prepared to back the Under at that number at plus-money odds. Webb ranks in the top five of all qualified NL starters in innings, ERA, FIP, xFIP, and fWAR and leads all in SO/W and ground ball rate. His 13 starts with seven-plus innings pitched lead the majors, and we expect him to turn in another quality start.
Caesars and DraftKings charge a slightly higher price to back the Under, at -164 and -165 odds, respectively.
Saturday's MLB game picks
Boston Red Sox righty Kutter Crawford has been a bright spot in the rotation in the second half, pitching to a 3.14 ERA since the All-Star Break. His xERA projects to be better than his actual ERA for the third straight season, and he does a great job limiting hard contact, ranking in the top 25% of the league or better in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
One of Crawford's biggest strengths is his elite 6.0% walk rate (85th percentile), and his ability to attack the strike zone will negate the New York Yankees' most reliable way of getting on base in August, as they lead MLB with a 12.0% walk rate.
The Yankees counter with Cy Young front-runner Gerrit Cole, who has had issues with Alex Verdugo and Rafael Devers in his career. The two Red Sox hitters are a combined 18-for-64 with 13 extra-base hits off Cole, but Cole has lost just one of 14 home starts, and we trust his .202 OBA and 10.32 K/9 rate at Yankee Stadium this year will offset the damage that Boston's best hitters can do against him.
All of our best sportsbooks are juiced to the Over of 8.0 runs, but DraftKings is the only shop at which one can back the Under at better than -105 odds.
MLB best bets made 8/19/2023 at 6:46 a.m. ET.
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- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSFULL | Read our Caesars Review
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- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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