Six teams go for series sweeps as another exciting week in Major League Baseball concludes. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds from our best MLB betting sites.
Of the six teams going for sweeps, two are the worst teams in baseball, as the Kansas City Royals and Oakland Athletics aim for rare three-game winning streaks. One of the teams on the verge of getting swept, the Texas Rangers, could lose sole possession of first place in the AL West by day's end. But reinforcements are coming for Texas, who made the biggest splash thus far at the trade deadline by dealing for Max Scherzer.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our World Seri es odds.
Sunday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Los Angeles Angels (+160) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-190)
- Detroit Tigers (+130) vs. Miami Marlins (-150)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-145) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+125)
- Washington Nationals (+215) vs. New York Mets (-255)
- Minnesota Twins (-165) vs. Kansas City Royals (+140)
- Cleveland Guardians (-140) vs. Chicago White Sox (+120)
- New York Yankees (+115) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-135)
- Boston Red Sox (-125) vs. San Francisco Giants (+105)
- Chicago Cubs (+110) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-130)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-110) vs. Houston Astros (-110)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+170) vs. Atlanta Braves (-200)
- Oakland Athletics (-110) vs. Colorado Rockies (-110)
- Seattle Mariners (-110) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-110)
- Texas Rangers (+165) vs. San Diego Padres (-195)
- Cincinnati Reds (+150) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-175)
Sunday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Jose Berrios Under 17.5 outs recorded (+130 via DraftKings) vs. Angels ???
- Player prop: Rich Hill Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. (-116 via FanDuel) vs. Phillies ???
- Player prop: Tommy Pham Over 0.5 RBIs (+175 via PointsBet) vs. Nationals ???
- Total: Reds-Dodgers Over 10 (-114 via FanDuel) ????
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Sunday's MLB prop picks
Toronto Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios may receive strong consideration for AL Pitcher of the Month, as he has pitched to a 1.93 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and struck out 23.7% of batters in four July starts. However, while his .207 OBA and .271 BABIP are more than respectable, Berrios has struggled with control, issuing eight walks in his previous 11 innings. And while Berrios has recorded fewer than 18 outs in just two of his last six starts, those control issues will catch up to him and are a significant reason for his suspect 4.48 xFIP.
This is a three-star play, as Berrios' 41.7% hard-hit percentage allowed this month suggests regression is coming, and should happen in this start against a Los Angeles Angels lineup that ranks eighth in BABIP (.313) in July and is 11th in hard-hit contact. DraftKings offers the best value for this wager, with Caesars slightly lower at +120.
Pittsburgh Pirates southpaw Rich Hill has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in four consecutive starts. However, only one of those starts came against a team ranked in the bottom half of the league in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, so the schedule suggests regression should be coming for Hill.
The Philadelphia Phillies have struck out the fifth-most in the league (25.6%) against lefties and are outside the league's top half in wRC+ and wOBA in that split. Five Phillies regulars (Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, and Nick Castellanos) all have a strikeout rate of 25.4% or greater against southpaws this season. Three of those have an on-base percentage worse than .300, while Philadelphia's leader in OBP against lefties (min. 40 PA) is Castellanos, who is also 0-for-12 with four strikeouts in his career against Hill.
All sportsbooks are in unison with the 4.5-strikeout total, but the Over is juiced as high as -137 at Caesars.
The New York Mets have averaged 4.9 runs per game over the last 11 games and once again face a Washington Nationals pitching staff that is the NL's second-worst in ERA (4.95), FIP (5.11), and xFIP (4.84).
Tommy Pham has been fantastic at home all season, slashing .308/.388/.542 at Citi Field versus a .236/.317/.415 slash line in road games. Pham is just 3-for-13 in his career off Nationals righty Trevor Williams, but all three hits have gone for extra bases, accounting for an impressive .990 OPS. Williams has averaged fewer than five innings per start in his five July starts, and given that his hard-hit rate allowed (39.5%) is on pace to be the worst of his career, while his xBA, xSLG, and K% rank in the 13th percentile or worse.
Pham leads New York in batting average against right-handed pitching (.279), and we expect him to produce out of a favorable spot in the Mets lineup, given that he has hit in the top six of the lineup in 51 of 78 games.
DraftKings has the same +175 odds for this wager, while Caesars offers a much lower return at +156.
Sunday's MLB game picks
One could argue the Los Angeles Dodgers were eager to add Lance Lynn at the trade deadline to bump Michael Grove and his team-worst -0.5 WAR out of the rotation. Three of Grove's last five starts have seen a combined 13-plus runs scored, and while he has pitched to a respectable 3.66 ERA in July, his .460 xSLG for the season is still well worse than the MLB average of .405.
Since Elly De La Cruz's MLB debut on June 6, the Cincinnati Reds rank sixth in OPS, seventh in wOBA, and 10th in BABIP. Conversely, we expect Los Angeles to have success against Graham Ashcraft, who ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in generating whiffs, and the bottom 10th of the league in xBA.
This is a four-star play, as the Over is 4-2 in the last six head-to-head meetings between these teams, while each is in the top seven of the most profitable Over teams this season.
FanDuel is the only sportsbook where one can find an O/U of 10.0 compared to 10.5 runs, so we don't mind paying the slight extra juice for an extra half-run of flexibility.
MLB best bets made 7/30/2023 at 7:22 a.m. ET.
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