The Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks are the only two Major League Baseball teams with off days Wednesday, as we have a jampacked midweek slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday based on the best MLB odds from our best sports betting apps.
With so many teams in the mix for a National League wild-card spot (five teams are within one game for the second wild card), the standings seemingly change wildly every day. The latest significant change was the Philadelphia Phillies knocking the San Francisco Giants out of a top-three spot with Tuesday's walk-off win, while the Arizona Diamondbacks have used a four-game winning streak and a hot 8-2 stretch to move a half-game ahead of their division rivals for the third spot.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick c onfidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our World Series odds.
Wednesday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- St. Louis Cardinals (-122) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+102)
- Chicago Cubs (-102) vs. Detroit Tigers (-118)
- Seattle Mariners (-218) vs. Chicago White Sox (+180)
- Minnesota Twins (+114) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-135)
- Kansas City Royals (-130) vs. Oakland Athletics (+110)
- San Francisco Giants (+110) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-130)
- Cincinnati Reds (+142) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-170) Game 1
- Cincinnati Reds (OFF) vs. Los Angeles Angels
- Miami Marlins (+102) vs. San Diego Padres (-122)
- Colorado Rockies (+225) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-278)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-125) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+105)
- Washington Nationals (+120) vs. New York Yankees (-142)
- L os Angeles Dodgers (-205) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+170)
- New York Mets (+164) vs. Atlanta Braves (-198)
- Boston Red Sox (+102) vs. Houston Astros (-122)
Wednesday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Javier Baez to record 2+ total bases (+140 via bet365) vs. Cubs ???
- Player prop: Shohei Ohtani to record a win (+145 via bet365) vs. Reds ????
- Player prop: Clayton Kershaw Under earned runs (OFF) vs. Guardians ????
- Total: Mets-Braves Over 9.5 (-115 via BetMGM, DraftKings) ????
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Wednesday's MLB prop picks
Detroit Tigers shortstop Javier Baez has batted .231 or worse in each of the last four months, and his current .205 average in August is on pace to be his worst of any month this season. However, if anything can spark Baez offensively, it is a meeting with Chicago Cubs righty Jameson Taillon, against whom he is 12-for-21 with a 1.619 OPS, as half of those 12 hits have gone for extra bases.
Despite Baez's August struggles, he has picked things up recently, with a .286/.375/.571 slash line over the previous seven days. And after a spectacular July where Taillon finished 3-0 with a 2.67 ERA and .214 OBA in five starts, he has been shelled for 12 runs in his last nine innings while losing back-to-back starts.
Most sportsbooks have Baez's O/U for total bases at 0.5, with the Over juiced to -200 or higher. Thus, we had to be a little creative with this wager to return better value, and found this prop under the “player total bases milestones” category at bet365, where one can back Baez to record at least five total bases for +800 odds.
The Cincinnati Reds remain in the thick of the NL wild-card race (they start the day 0.5 games out of the third wild-card spot), despite going 6-12 in August thus far, which is only a half-game better than the Colorado Rockies' 6-13 record for the worst in the NL in that span. Cincinnati ranks 25th in wRC+ (84) and 26th in batting average (.233) while striking out at the league's highest rate (27.9%) since July 23.
This would be a more confident five-star play if we were guaranteed that Shohei Ohtani would pitch the necessary five innings to earn the victory, but there is some doubt after his last start was skipped for fatigue. However, we expect the best version of Ohtani, as he has not allowed an earned run in three consecutive starts after allowing just seven total hits in his previous 19 innings.
The best value is found at bet365, as Caesars and DraftKings offer +123 and +135 odds, respectively.
Los Angeles Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw has thrown fewer than 127 innings each of the last three seasons, so he should be well rested for this stretch run, with 105 1/3 innings pitched so far this season.
Kershaw's numbers at age 35 are not far off from his Cy Young campaign in 2011, as he has allowed a .212 OBA and .264 OBP this year compared to a .207 OBA and .256 OBP 12 years ago. While he is an eye-popping 5-0 with a 1.26 ERA in his previous seven starts, many will discredit those numbers as he has made just two starts since June 27. But he has allowed a .171 OBA (the best of any month) in two August starts and a 0.80 WHIP against the Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewe rs.
Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians entered Tuesday ranked dead-last in the AL in nearly every offensive category against southpaws, including wRC+ (74), batting average (.226), slugging (.348), and wOBA (.278).
As of this writing, only Guardians righty Xzavion Curry has earned run odds, but we would play this line down to 1.5 for Kershaw when they become available. If they are never released, we would be interested in the Over 4.5 on Kershaw's strikeout total.
Wednesday's MLB game picks
The New York Mets and Atlanta Braves are not averse to playing high-scoring games against each other, as they have cashed the Over in five of the previous eight meetings, with five of the games totaling 12-plus runs. The Mets have averaged an NL-best 6.5 runs per game over their last 10 games and now face Atlanta Braves righty Charlie Morton, whose 4.79 xERA is the worst among all Braves starters (min. nine starts) and whose 4.24 xFIP is better than only Bryce Elder's.
Mets southpaw Jose Quintana has been tough on three of the Braves' best hitters throughout his career, holding Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, and Orlando Arcia to a combined 7-for-56 (.125) with just two extra-base hits. But Quintana is still 2-4 with a 6.49 ERA in seven career starts against Atlanta, and the depth of the Braves lineup will prevail in this matchup, as players like Kevin Pillar and Marcell Ozuna, who are a combined 14-for-36 and each have an OPS of .918 or higher against Quintana, should provide pop at the bottom of the order.
Backing the Over of 10.0 runs at FanDuel is enticing given that pays out +100 odds, but we do not mind paying the slight extra juice to not need 11-plus runs to cash the Over.
MLB best bets made 8/23/2023 at 7: 39 a.m. ET.
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