The last week of August begins with a loaded 14-game Major League Baseball slate on Monday. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday based on the best MLB odds.
There is a real opportunity for some movement within MLB division races early in the week, as three of the six divisions' top two teams meet on Monday.
The Cleveland Guardians likely need a series win against the Minnesota Twins to remain relevant in the AL Central race. At the same time, the Chicago Cubs can make the NL Central race interesting with a successful series against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Elsewhere, the Arizona Diamondbacks are likely too far behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (12 games back to start this series) to make up any serious ground in the NL West, but they need to avoid a complete disaster against their division rivals not to jeopardize their wild-card chances.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday's MLB schedule and odds
- New York Yankees (-105) vs. Detroit Tigers (-115)
- Los Angeles Angels (+120) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-142)
- Chicago White Sox (+195) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-238)
- Washington Nationals (+205) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-250)
- Houston Astros (+105) vs. Boston Red Sox (-125)
- Texas Rangers (-148) vs. New York Mets (+124)
- Cleveland Guardians (+145) vs. Minnesota Twins (-175)
- San Diego Padres (-185) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+154)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+105) vs. Chicago Cubs (-125)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) vs. Kansas City Royals (-105)
- Atlanta Braves (-238) vs. Colorado Rockies (+195)
- Oakland Athletics (OFF) vs. Seattle Mariners
- Cincinnati Reds (-102) vs. San Francisco Giants (-118)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+120) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-142)
Check out our Wo rld Series odds.
Monday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Kenta Maeda Under 2.5 earned runs (-130 via bet365) vs. Guardians ????
- Player prop: Reese Olson Under 2.5 earned runs (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Yankees ???
- Player prop: Ketel Marte Under 1.5 total bases (-160 via bet365) vs. Dodgers ????
- First five innings total: Reds-Giants Under 4.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ???
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Monday's MLB prop picks
Twins righty Kenta Maeda is an entirely different pitcher from the one who went 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA in four starts in April. Maeda was given a chance to hit the reset button with a nearly two-month IL stint and returned with a vengeance, allowing eight or fewer earned runs in eight of his next nine starts.
Maeda has pitched to a 2.68 ERA overall since returning from the IL in late June, but the most refreshing number is his 32.2% strikeout rate. The increased punchouts are a big product of an increase in fastball velocity, averaging 89.5 mph in April and peaking at 91.4 mph in August. By comparison, his fastball averaged 91.8 mph when he finished second in the Cy Young voting and led the league in WHIP (0.75) in 2020.
We are not playing Maeda's strikeout prop, given that Cleveland whiffs at the lowest rate in the majors, but we do expect him to keep runs off the board, as the Guardians are MLB's fifth-worst scoring offense and second-worst in terms of slugging percentage.
Maeda's odds go up to -149 at Caesars to stay Under 2.5 earned runs, making bet365 our go-to best sports betting app.
Things are spiraling out of control quickly for the New York Yankees. They are a season-high six games under .500 and have won just one series since July 1, the fewest in MLB. Now they are underdogs to a Detroit Tigers team that is 12 games under .500 and just 28-37 at home this season.
The Yankees made history of the wrong kind over the weekend, becoming the third team since 1901 to have four games with two or fewer hits in a 10-game span, per Katie Sharp. They followed that up with a four-hit effort on Sunday and have looked non-competitive in countless at-bats.
Detroit Tigers righty Reece Olson has allowed 10 earned runs in his last 7 1/3 innings but has allowed a .215 OBA in nine home appearances (seven starts) and has pitched much better than his 5.53 ERA at Comerica Park would suggest.
Bettors have their choice between the -110 odds at DraftKings or bet365, but both offer better value than the -117 at Caesars.
Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte batted .305 or better for three consecutive months from May to July but is having an August to forget, with a slash line of .179/.278/.333. His slugging percentage is barely above .300 thanks to his four home runs, and since he is usually a catalyst for the offense, the team's overall offensive production has faltered during his slump.
Arizona ranks 12th in runs scored this season (622) but is tied for 21st (101) in August, as it has been strong pitching over the last two weeks that is mainly responsible for its 11-3 run. The Diamondbacks scored seven total runs in their first four-game series at the Dodgers this year and managed just four runs while getting swept at home in two games by their NL West rivals on August 8 and 9.
This is a four-star play, as this is the first time any Diamondbacks hitter has faced Dodgers righty Bobby Miller, and he has been tough on left-handed hitters, with a .193 OBA.
The odds found at DraftKings and bet365 both trump the -177 to back Marte's Under at Caesars.
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Monday's MLB game picks
The Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants meet for the fifth time this season, and the Under went 3-1 in their four-game series from July 18 to 20 at the Great American Ball Park. Now the matchup switches to Oracle Park, which plays slightly less than neutral from a runs standpoint but decreases home runs at a 26% clip, per Ballpark Pal. That should tremendously help Reds rookie Andrew Abbott, who has not had a GO/AO ratio better than 0.46 in any of his three months at the Major League level.
The Giants send their No. 1 prospect, Kyle Harrison, to the mound for his second big-league start. His debut was uneven with a .430 xSLG and .480 wOBA, but his swing-and-miss stuff was as electric as touted, as he produced a 31.3% strikeout percentage in 3 1/3 innings.
We are limiting this wager to the first five innings, as the Giants' bullpen will likely be thrust into a significant role with Harrison not yet built to go deep in a game, while Cincinnati's relievers rank bottom-10 in FIP since July 1.
Those looking to back the first five innings Under at 3.5 runs would be in line for a juicy +154 payout, but we prefer the extra run of support at standard -110 odds, which is better than the -114 odds FanDuel offers.
MLB best bets made 8/28/2023 at 6:54 a.m. ET.
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