Twelve new series begin around Major League Baseball to kick off another exciting weekend. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday based on the best MLB odds.
Nearly half (seven of 15) of Friday's MLB games are between winning teams as playoff races intensify. Two of the American League's top four teams meet as the Houston Astros host the Tampa Bay Rays, while two of the National League's division leaders clash when the Milwaukee Brewers visit the Atlanta Braves.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday's MLB schedule and odds
- Detroit Tigers (+130) vs. Miami Marlins (-150)
- New York Yankees (-125) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+105)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-155) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+135)
- Los Angeles Angels (+180) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-210)
- Washington Nationals (+155) vs. New York Mets (-180)
- Cleveland Guardians (-145) vs. Chicago White Sox (+125)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+160) vs. Atlanta Braves (-190)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-115) vs. Houston Astros (-105)
- Minnesota Twins (-170) vs. Kansas City Royals (+145)
- Chicago Cubs (OFF) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- Oakland Athletics (OFF) vs. Colorado Rockies
- Seattle Mariners (-135) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+115)
- Texas Rangers (+145) vs. San Diego Padres (-170)
- Cincinnati Reds (+195) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-230)
- Boston Red Sox (+130) vs. San Francisco Giants (-150)
< h2 class='text-left'>Friday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Austin Riley Over 0.5 RBIs (+105 via PointsBet) vs. Brewers ???
- Player prop: Sonny Gray to record win (+135 via PointsBet) vs. Royals ???
- Player prop: Logan Webb Under 2.5 earned runs (-130 via DraftKings) vs. Red Sox ????
- Moneyline: Yankees (-120 via BetMGM) vs. Orioles ???
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Friday's MLB prop picks
Atlanta Braves slugger Austin Riley tied a franchise record by homering in five consecutive games from July 18 to 22, totaling 16 RBIs in that span. Since then, he has not driven in a run during three straight games. But we expect him to end the drought Friday considering he has gone more than four consecutive games without an RBI just once since May 15.
Riley is slashing .455/.455/.727 in 11 career at-bats against Milwaukee Brewers righty Adrian Houser. Houser threw a quality start while striking out a season-high 10 batters in his last start against the Braves, but he has allowed a .307 OBA to right-handed batters, and Riley's OPS is 172 points higher at home than on the road.
DraftKings offers the same +105 odds as PointsBet, while FanDuel and Caesars are slightly lower at +100.
Sonny Gray has gone 14 consecutive starts without a victory, and all four of his wins this season came back in April. However, half of his previous 10 starts have been quality starts, and though he has pitched to a 4.78 ERA over his last five appearances, three came against the best teams in each league (Braves and Baltimore Orioles). Gray has pitched to a much tidier 2.66 ERA in seven starts against divisional opponents this year, and his 2.90 FIP is on pace to be his best since his rookie year in 2013.
This is a three-star play, as Gray owns a league-best 0.2 HR/9 rate. He has also held current Kansas City Royals hitters to a .187/.229/.266 slash line in 91 combined at-bats (with 25.2% of outs coming via strikeouts). Meanwhile, his counterpart, Brady Singer, has allowed a .324/.439/.607 slash line over 68 at-bats to current Minnesota Twins hitters.
DraftKings offers the same +135 as PointsBet, while Caesars is slightly lower at +127.
Logan Webb is one of three qualified starting pitchers with an ERA of 2.02 or better in home starts, and his .230 OBA, 1.03 WHIP, 6.09 K/BB rate, and 2.33 GO/AO ratio are all second-best of the three. Webb is tied for first in the league with 15 quality starts, and he ranks sixth among all NL pitchers in WAR.
This is a four-star play as Webb faces a Boston Red Sox lineup that ranks 17th in wRC+ and OPS and 22nd in BABIP (.285) against right-handed pitchers on the road this season.
DraftKings is our go-to wager for this sportsbook, as Caesars is slightly higher at -137 odds.
Friday's MLB game picks
The New York Yankees are 15-6 in Gerrit Cole's 21 starts this season, which means they are 39-42 with everyone else. One of those wins was a 6-5 extra-inning victory against the Orioles, in which the team overcame Cole's five earned runs (tied for a season-high).
Per Katie Sharp, the Yankees have the third-best record when scoring three-plus runs (52-18), though they rank 20th in the number of times they have scored that many runs. However, we are confident the Bronx Bombers can succeed offensively against Grayson Rodriguez, whose 9.09 ERA since May 1 is the worst of any starting pitcher (min. 30 IP). While Rodriguez's 4.54 xFIP vs. actual 7.11 FIP suggests positive regression is looming, he continues to get himself in trouble with allowing home runs at an alarming rate (3.13 HR/9). That issue will only be magnified if Yankees slugger Aaron Judge makes his anticipated return to the lineup on Friday.
BetMGM is one of the only sportsbooks where one can back the Yankees at -120 odds, as other shops like FanDuel have climbed as high as -126.
MLB best bets made 7/28/2023 at 7:02 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- FanDuel Promo Code: Bet $5, Get $100 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars Promo Code: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings Promo Code: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet Promo Code: Earn Up To $500 in Second-Chance Bets | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)