All but two Major League Baseball teams are in action Friday, as 11 new series add to a compelling 14-game slate to begin the weekend. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday based on the best MLB odds from our
best MLB betting sites.
The National League has two of the most anticipated weekend series, with one kicking off the day in the early afternoon. The Chicago Cubs have been the hottest team in baseball over the last two weeks, and they put their MLB-best record since mid-July against elite competition in the Atlanta Braves. Elsewhere, the San Diego Padres are similarly looking to ride a second-half wave into a playoff spot and could gain valuable ground on the Los Angeles Dodgers with a big home series this weekend.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our World Series odds.
Friday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Atlanta Braves (-166) vs. Chicago Cubs (+ 140)
- Washington Nationals (+160) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-192)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-148) vs. Detroit Tigers (+124)
- New York Mets (+142) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-170)
- Kansas City Royals (+200) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-245)
- Houston Astros (-142) vs. New York Yankees (+120)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+140) vs. Boston Red Sox (-166)
- Chicago White Sox (+140) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-166)
- Miami Marlins (+120) vs. Texas Rangers (-142)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+110) vs. Minnesota Twins (-130)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+145) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-175)
- Colorado Rockies (+140) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-166)
- Seattle Mariners (-120) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+100)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-110) vs. San Diego Padres (-110)
Friday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Luis Robert Over 1.5 total bases (+105 via FanDuel) vs. Guardians ???
- Player prop: Hunter Brown to record a win (+170 via PointsBet) vs. Yankees ???
- Player prop: Reid Detmers Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-160 via DraftKings) vs. Mariners ????
- Upset: Pirates ML vs. Brewers (+150 via WynnBet) ????
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Friday's MLB prop picks
Luis Robert entered yesterday batting just .227 over the last seven days, but he has made the most of those hits, with three extra-base hits adding to a .455 slugging and a .715 OPS (both second on the team in that span).
Robert has five hits in nine at-bats against Cleveland Guardians rookie Logan Allen, and the White Sox as a team have scored increasingly more runs each of the three times th ey have faced him.
As tough as Allen has been on left-handed hitters (.196 OBA), right-handed batters are hitting a much more respectable .273 against him. This is a three-star play, as Allen's swinging-strike rate is down from 13.6% during a hot stretch in April and May to closer to 10% since then. In addition, his two primary pitches (four-seam fastball and sweeper) have generated lower batting averages and slugging percentages than the expected metrics, suggesting further regression is coming.
FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering plus-money odds for Robert to have two-plus total bases, as DraftKings and Caesars are at -105 at -111, respectively.
After his latest clunker of a start in which he allowed nine earned runs on 10 hits in 3 1/3 innings, Luis Severino said, “Right now I feel like I am the worst pitcher in the game.” The numbers seemingly back that up, a s Severino's two outings where he allowed nine-plus runs in July have not been replicated by a New York Yankees pitcher in any calendar month since 1934, per Katie Sharp.
The Houston Astros offense is arguably the healthiest it has been all season and, since Yordan Alvarez returned from injury on July 26, the team ranks second in the AL in wRC+, slugging, and walk percentage. The offense should provide plenty of support for Hunter Brown, whose 10.2 K/9 rate is the best among all Astros starters. This is a three-star play, as Houston is 10-3 in games where they score three-plus runs for Brown, while opponents have averaged 8.6 runs per game in Severino's previous five starts.
DraftKings offers the same +170 odds for this wager, while Caesars is slightly lower at +156.
Since May 19, Los Angeles Angels southpaw Reid Detmers has been one of the AL's most dominant pitchers, as his 11.67 K/9 (30.9% K%) ranks fourth among AL starters (min. 60 IP). And of the 11 pitchers with a K/9 rate of more than 11.00 in that span, Detmers is one of five with a BABIP of .290 or lower, suggesting opponents are not finding many holes even when they put the ball in play. Detmers has not induced a high ground-ball rate in that span (31.5%) but has limited the damage with an 11.8% HR/FB rate, which is a big reason for his respectable 3.56 FIP (tied for 21st in that span).
This is a four-star play, as the Seattle Mariners rank 21st in wRC+, 22nd in slugging, and 27th in ISO in road games against left-handed pitchers. Thus, Detmers' huge strikeout potential limits Seattle's second-ranked .352 BABIP in that split.
DraftKings is our go-to shop for this wager, as Caesars is slightly higher at -167 odds.
Friday's MLB game picks
The Pittsbu rgh Pirates rose from +114 underdogs Thursday to +150 underdogs today, largely because of their 14-1 defeat in the series opener. But we are not going to let one bad result against the Milwaukee Brewers affect our view that much, especially with them trotting out arguably their worst starting pitcher, Colin Rea (team-worst 0.2 WAR among starting pitchers).
Pirates rookie Quinn Priester needs a big outing, as he has allowed 16 earned runs through 15 2/3 innings thus far. Look for Priester to utilize his breaking pitches more in this start, especially after Stuff+ gave his slider and curveball respectable 123 and 108 ratings in his debut.
Pittsburgh needs to do better not to put itself in early holes, as it has trailed after three innings in each of its last seven divisional games. But Milwaukee has played average baseball at best lately, not winning back-to-back games since July 20. The Brewers have won just one of their last five series against teams not named the Cincinnati Reds, so we want to see more consistency from them before we back them, especially with Rea on the mound.
WynnBet is the only sportsbook where one can back the Pirates at +150 odds, as the next closest sportsbook in value is FanDuel at +146.
MLB best bets made 8/4/2023 at 7:17 a.m. ET.
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