Seven series finales and one opener make up Thursday's eight-game Major League Baseball slate. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday based on the best MLB odds.
Four of Thursday's games are played in the afternoon window, while the only series opener is an NL West clash between the Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers. The series looks like a mismatch on paper, as Los Angeles is an NL-best 21-9 in its last 30 games, while Colorado is an MLB-worst 7-21 (.250) against its own division.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Thursday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Thursday's MLB schedule and odds
- Houston Astros (-120) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+100)
- Atlanta Braves (-205) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+170)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-135) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+114)
- Minnesota Twins (-148) vs. Detroit Tigers (+124)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+150) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-180)
- Washington Nationals (+210) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-258)
- Kansas City Royals (+205) vs. Boston Red Sox (-250)
- Colorado Rockies (+275) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-345)
Thursday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Alec Bohm Over 1.5 total bases (-115 via bet365) vs. Nationals ????
- Player prop: Bryce Elder to record a win (+115 via DraftKings) vs. Pirates ???
- Player prop: Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBIs (+125 via bet365) vs. Royals ???
- Total: Astros-Orioles Over 9 (-122 via FanDuel) ????
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Thursday's MLB prop picks
Philadelphia Phillies slugger Alec Bohm is fifth on the team in total bases (168), but his .785 OPS is third only to Brandon Marsh and Bryce Harper (min. 300 AB). However, against left-handed pitching, Bohm's numbers are the best of any Phillies hitter, as he is slashing .330/.357/.594, and his 63 total bases are tied for the team high.
Bohm should find plenty of success against Washington Nationals southpaw Patrick Corbin, who has allowed 22 of his 24 home runs to right-handed hitters. Righties are also hitting .308 off him this year, and there is no silver lining in sight for Corbin, who is among the league's worst in xBA and xSLG (fourth percentile or worse in both categories).
This is a four-star play, as Philadelphia's success has increased substantially ever since moving Bohm to the No. 2 hole in the lineup, according to Jack Fritz.
Bohm's odds to cash this Over go as high as -135 at FanDuel, so bet365 is our go-to shop.
The Atlanta Braves are as low as -200 moneyline favorites in this series finale against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the MLB leaders in wins are 16-6 when moneyline favorites of -155 to -200 this season. That .727 winning percentage makes us confident enough to eschew their steep moneyline odds and back their starting pitcher to earn the victory instead.
Bryce Elder entered July with the second-best ERA in the majors (2.44). Though that number has risen almost a full run since then (to 3.43), two of his four road starts in that span have been quality starts.
However, the biggest reason for this play is a fade of Pittsburgh Pirates southpaw Bailey Falter, who is 0-7 in eight appearances. Falter generates whiffs on 15.1% or lower on his two primary pitches, fastball and curveball, which he throws a combined 77.1% of the time, and that should set up for a big day from the Braves offense.
Caesars offers slightly less value for this wager at +108 odds, so we'll place this bet at DraftKings.
Kansas City Royals righty Alec Marsh has been atrocious on the road this season, going 0-3 with a 7.41 ERA in four starts. Marsh has allowed a .293 OBA and pitched to a 2.12 WHIP against left-handed batters this season, but more concerning is lefties' ability to elevate the ball against him, as his GO/AO rate is 0.54.
Rafael Devers has eight total bases and a .910 OPS over the last seven days, and his batting average is 39 points higher at Fenway Park than on the road this season. Devers has produced at least one RBI in just one of eight games this month but should get right against a struggling pitcher in a game with the highest projected total of any on the day's slate (O/U 10.5).
The +125 odds found at bet365 are a steal considering Devers is a chalky -125 at FanDuel to drive in a run.
Thursday's MLB game picks
Houston Astros righty Hunter Brown leads all AL rookie pitchers in WAR (2.1) and entered his last start with the fifth-highest ground ball rate (57%) against right-handed hitters among all qualified starting pitchers. However, though he has thrown three consecutive quality starts, he has not eclipsed four strikeouts in any of them and allowed two-plus home runs in two of his last four. Brown has also struggled against quality competition this year, allowing 13 earned runs in his previous 19 1/3 innings (spanning four starts) against first-place teams.
We also have the least confidence in Dean Kremer of all Baltimore Orioles starting pitchers. Since June 1, Kremer has the worst FIP (5.13), BB/9 rate (3.00), and HR/9 rate (1.91) of any qualified Baltimore pitcher. The team's 10-2 record in his 12 starts in that span is mainly because the offense has averaged 5.8 runs per game of support.
FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering a total of 9.0 compared to 9.5 runs everywhere else, so it is worth the extra juice to benefit from this lower number.
MLB best bets made 8/10/2023 at 7:17 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSFULL | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)