It's a new week in Major League Baseball, so forget about any bets you lost this weekend as we offer our top MLB player props and best bets for Monday based on the best MLB odds.
It's a nearly full 13-game schedule on Monday, with some teams looking to build on the early momentum from the first few series while others try to put those games in the rearview.
Monday begins with some dinnertime baseball from Progressive Field, as the Cleveland Guardians host the Chicago White Sox, with first pitch expected at 5:10 p.m. ET.
The action rolls on with some interleague affairs, with a showdown between the World Series odds-favorite Los Angeles Dodgers and the Minnesota Twins the highlight. The first pitch will come at 7:40 p.m. ET from Target Field.
Finally, we close out the day with a trio of West Coast games, with a battle between the Chic ago Cubs and San Diego Padres serving as the night's main event. First pitch for that contest is expected at 9:40 p.m. ET from Petco Park.
Here are our MLB player props and best bets for Monday (MLB picks based on odds via our
best MLB betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday's MLB best bets
- Nestor Cortes Under 5.5 strikeouts (+125 via BetRivers) ????
- Tyler Anderson Under 4.5 strikeouts (+130 via BetMGM) ????
- Graham Ashcraft Under 5.5 strikeouts (-106 via BetRivers) ????
- Miles Mikolas Under 4.5 strikeouts (-110 via FanDuel) ???
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Monday's MLB player props
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 6.5 (-185) | Under 5.5 (+120) | Under 6.5 (-182) | Under 6.5 (-200) | Under 5.5 (-105) |
Game info: Marlins vs. Yankees | Moneyline: Yankees (-160 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-105)/Under 8.5 (-115) via Betway | Start time: 6:05 p.m. ET
Following two outstanding campaigns for the New York Yankees, left-hander Nestor Cortes took a huge step back in 2023 while dealing with various injuries. Unfortunately, he's continued to struggle through two starts in 2023. He's logged as many earned runs as punchouts through two outings (10 innings) thus far, leading to an average of just 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
Facing Cortes on Monday are the lowly Miami Marlins, who finally won their first game this weekend after beginning the year with nine straight losses. However, for all of the Marlins' struggles, they've actually been fairly good at avoiding strikeouts. Miami owns the 12th-best strikeout percentage this season after recording th e eighth-best rate in 2023.
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Cortes isn't getting an especially low strikeout projection compared to his total on Monday. His average projection is 5.47 across our two projected models. However, these +125 odds via BetRivers make the bet highly appealing. Based on this projection, we're getting better than 18% positive expected value on this bet.
Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, opened with Under 5.5 at +118. It was bet to +103 throughout the night before the total moved to 6.5. The book now prices Under 6.5 strikeouts at -223.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 4.5 (+130) | Under 4.5 (+118) | Under 4.5 (+130) | Under 4.5 (+106) | Under 5.5 (-180) |
Game info: Rays vs. Angels | Moneyline: Rays (-150 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-115)/Under 8.5 (-105) via Betway | Start time: 9:38 p.m. ET
Unlike Cortes, who at one point did strike out opposing hitters at a respectable rate, Tyler Anderson has never dominated via the punchout. Anderson averaged just 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings in 2023, and he sat down five hitters in that fashion over seven innings during his first start of 2024.
Anderson squares off against the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday, who strike out at a far higher rate than most would assume. The Rays finished just around the middle of the pack in 2023, but they've hovering closer to the bottom 10 through their first few series of 2024.
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This bet on Anderson profiles similarly to our previous one on the Cortes Under. Anderson's average projection is 4.62, which isn't too far from what he'd need to clear this total.
However, these +130 odds – found at both DraftKings and BetMGM – provide us with the necessary value. When we run our projection against these +130 odds, we're getting better than 18% +EV on this bet.
As you can see, not all of our best sports betting sites are aligned on the total, as bet365 is still at 5.5. Though you're getting an extra strikeout, the expected value is far lower due to its -180 odds.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 5.5 (-145) | Under 5.5 (-142) | Under 5.5 (-120) | Under 5.5 (-151) | Under 5.5 (-125) |
Game info: Brewers vs. Reds | Moneyline: Pick'em (via Betway) | Total: Over 9.5 (+110)/Under 9.5 (-135) via Betway | Start time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Cincinnati Reds right-hander Graham Ashcraft pitched well in his first start this season. allowing just two earned runs over six innings of work. However, he followed his two-year trend of getting most of his outs via balls in play rather than striking out opposing hitters. Ashcraft managed just five punchouts through those six innings after averaging 6.86 K/9 last season.
Working in Ashcraft's favor, though, is that he faces a Milwaukee Brewers team striking out at a slightly higher rate this season thanks to youngsters Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, and Brice Turang, as well as offseason addition Rhys Hoskins. All four players own a strikeout rate above 23%.
Howev er, Ashcraft's projection is still relatively low compared to this total. He's projected to record only 4.55 punchouts on Monday, nearly 1 1/2 fewer than he'd need to clear this total. As a result, we're getting roughly 34% +EV on this bet through BetRivers' -106 odds.
Comparatively, Pinnacle opened at +106, and the Under has been smashed to -171. Our other best sports betting apps are far more in line with those odds than this outlier price, so be sure to use our exclusive BetRivers bonus code: SBRBONUS to get the best odds on this bet!
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 4.5 (-125) | Under 4.5 (-110) | Under 4.5 (-133) | Under 4.5 (-132) | Under 4.5 (-130) |
Game info: Phillies vs. Cardinals | Moneyline: Pick'em (via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-125)/Under 9.5 (+105) via Betway | Start time: 7:45 p.m. ET
We close out our best bets with a fourth Under, and we're targeting another pitcher who isn't exactly known for his ability to embarrass opposing hitters.
St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas has struck out 6.57 batters per nine innings throughout his major-league tenure, setting a career-best mark of 7.04 in 2019. Across his first two starts this season, Mikolas has punched out nine across 10 1/3 innings of work.
Mikolas squares off against the free-swinging Philadelphia Phillies on Monday, though, which could help his chances of racking up more Ks. The Phillies owned the 10th-worst strikeout rate in the majors last year, and though they sit 11th so far in 2024, it's actually at a higher percentage (24.4 compared to last year's 23.9 mark).
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Despite all that, Mikolas is projected to record only 4.03 strikeouts on Monday. That number comes from an average of three of our trusted projection models, which are all very closely aligned on his number. When we run that projection against these -110 odds at FanDuel, we're getting 19% +EV.
As you can see, FanDuel is the only one of our best sportsbooks offering these odds. If you were to bet the Under at any of our other sites with the best sportsbook promos, you'd be getting less than 10% +EV.
MLB best bets made Monday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Rev iew
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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