Hurricane Hilary forced the rescheduling of three games Sunday, leaving a smaller-than-usual 12-game Major League Baseball slate to end the week. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday based on the best MLB odds.
One of the best new MLB traditions takes place tonight on Sunday Night Baseball, as the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals meet in Williamsport, PA, to play with all Little Leaguers in attendance.
Elsewhere, the San Francisco Giants are in danger of falling out of a wild-card spot (they lead two teams by a half-game for the second spot) as they are on the brink of getting swept by the Atlanta Braves.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Sunday's MLB schedule and odds
- Seattle Mariners (+154) vs. Houston Astros (-185)
- Boston Red Sox (+102) vs. New York Yankees (-122)
- San Francisco Giants (+210) vs. Atlanta Braves (-258)
- Detroit Tigers (-105) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-115)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-112) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-108)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+120) vs. Minnesota Twins (-142)
- New York Mets (+124) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-148)
- Kansas City Royals (+170) vs. Chicago Cubs (-205)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+170) vs. Texas Rangers (-205)
- Chicago White Sox (-148) vs. Colorado Rockies (+124)
- Baltimore Orioles (-192) vs. Oakland Athletics (+160)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-218) vs. Washington Nationals (+180)
Sunday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Max Fried Over 5.5 strikeouts (+110 via DraftKings) vs. Giants ????< /li>
- Player prop: Corey Seager to hit a home run (+340 via FanDuel) vs. Brewers ???
- Player prop: Joey Votto Under 0.5 total bases (+140 via bet365) vs. Blue Jays ???
- Run line: Phillies -1.5 (-135 via DraftKings) vs. Nationals ???
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Sunday's MLB prop picks
The San Francisco Giants have the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the majors over the last 14 days (26.2%) and a 25.9% K rate over the previous 30 days. They started this series with 10 strikeouts against Spencer Strider (13 in all) and followed that up with 11 against Yonny Chirinos and five Braves relievers on Saturday. Things will not get any easier against southpaw Max Fried, who is due for a big bounce back after his strikeout totals have fallen from eight to two over three August starts.
Fried has held current Giants hitters to a .167/.234/.177 slash line in 90 at-bats, with 31.1% of the outs coming via strikeout. San Francisco has been atrocious on the road of late, losing 12 of their last 13 road games and ranking dead-last in the majors with a 40 wRC+ in road games against left-handed pitchers since July 1 (for comparison, the Cleveland Guardians rank 29th with a 61 wRC+ in that split).
It does not help that Wilmer Flores and J.D. Davis, San Francisco's best and fifth-best, respectively, hitters by OPS against left-handed pitchers, are a combined 7-for-38 with 10 strikeouts and just one extra-base hit against Fried.
As of this writing, DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting apps with a line available for Fried's strikeouts, but we will always prefer the total of 5.5 at plus-money odds than a lower total juiced to the Over.
Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager does not have enough at-bats to qualify, but his 1.112 OPS against right-handed pitching would rank second in the majors, just behind Shohei Ohtani. Seager is slashing .351/.430/.683, with 15 of his 22 home runs coming against righties. Since July 5, Seager has not gone more than three games without a home run (a 26-game span), and he has been one of the hottest hitters in MLB over the last 30 days, slashing .333/.412/.817.
This is a three-star play, as Milwaukee Brewers righty Adrian Houser has pitched to a 5.63 ERA in six starts following the All-Star Break and has allowed a 1.13 HR/9 rate in that span after a 0.88 HR/9 rate in the first half. In addition, Houser's OBA is down 38 points from the first half of the season, but his ERA is 1.95 runs higher, and his GO/AO ratio is down 0.3, suggesting that opponents are elevating Houser's pitchers more.
The +340 odds at FanDuel are an absolute steal, considering the next closest sportsbook to that value is DraftKings (+270), and his odds are as low as +235 at Caesars.
Cincinnati Reds slugger Joey Votto has been held hitless in seven of the last 12 games, which sours the fact that his .825 OPS in August is the highest it has been in any month this season. He will likely be one of the only left-handed hitters in the lineup against Toronto Blue Jays southpaw Hyun Jin Ryu, as Ryu has allowed just one hit in nine at-bats through three starts against lefties this year.
Votto is 5-for-17 with one home run in his career against Ryu, but he is a shell of the hitter he was for many of those at-bats. He is batting a paltry .171 at home this season, and five of Votto's seven extra-base hits in his last 82 at-bats were home runs, which we cannot bank on against Ryu, whose 0.75 GB/FB ratio is on pace to be the best of his career.
The best value for this Under is at bet365, as Caesars and DraftKings offer +120 and +130 odds, respectively.
Sunday's MLB game picks
Phillies righty Zack Wheeler is getting overlooked in the Cy Young Award race. Still, he is quietly putting together a solid second half, with his seven consecutive quality starts being the longest active streak among all healthy pitchers. Wheeler is gearing up for a strong finish slightly earlier than the last two seasons, when he pitched to a 0.90 and 1.47 ERA in September in 2022 and 2021, respectively.
Wheeler is opposed by Nationals righty Trevor Williams, who has thrown just one quality start since May 18 and is 0-3 with a 7.44 ERA in his previous seven starts. Four Phillies regulars (Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto, and Kyle Schwarber) all have OPSs of 1.080 or better in at least 12 at-bats against Williams.
Philadelphia has been a profitable 20-10 (+7.85 units) in its last 30 road games, but this should feel like a home game at a neutral site in Williamsport. Do not be swayed by the fact that Philadelphia has not won either of its previous two series, as it has the second-best winning percentage (.636) in the majors since June 2 and won by two-plus runs in 29 of those games.
DraftKings offers slightly better run line odds than FanDuel (-137), while those who are bigger believers in the Phillies may be enticed by BetMGM's +110 odds to lay 2.5 runs.
MLB best bets made 8/20/2023 at 7:03 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSFULL | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)