MLB Player Prop Picks for Saturday, October 6: Flaherty loses control

Game 1 between the Padres and Dodgers was an entertaining matchup with Los Angeles winning by a 7-5 final score. Game 2 is set to be another intriguing matchup with Jack Flaherty and Yu Darvish facing off for their respective clubs. I am targeting Flaherty’s command for the purpose of this article, as the right-hander has been walking more and more batters in recent outings. Let’s dive in!

Jack Flaherty (LAD) over 1.5 walks allowed (-105)

Jack Flaherty has a walk rate of just 5.9% this season, but the right-hander’s performance in that area has slipped during recent outings. Flaherty has walked multiple batters in 6 of his last 8 trips to the mound including 3 outings with 3 or more walks issued in September alone. The combination of a lower rate of pitches inside the zone and a lower chase rate induced has resulted in more free passes allowed, and now with the heightened pressure of the playoffs I am anticipating multiple walks allowed in this outing. Los Angeles won game 1 of the series which likely means Flaherty receives a longer leash than if they had lost Game 1, and that extra volume could go a long way in helping this prop.

Not only has Flaherty seen his command dip a bit lately, but his matchup against San Diego could lead to walks as the Padres have several patient hitters in their lineup. In 82 combined plate appearances against Flaherty all time, active Padre hitters have 14 walks in that sample. They also faced Flaherty in his most recent start, an outing in which the right-hander walked 3 of the 21 batters he faced in his 5 innings of work. Their increased familiarity should pay off in this close proximity rematch, especially with their ability to lay off on pitches located outside of the strike zone.