iv class=”bodyContent col-lg-9 mb-3″>
It's Paul Skenes Day, and that means we're diving into his player props ahead of the hurler's afternoon start against the Chicago Cubs.
There are now two things I like to do when Skenes pitches: check out his daily props (naturally, here we are) and see what his longest MLB Rookie of the Year odds are now. There's been a lot of talk about an innings limit for the phenom, but I still think he's going to be crowned NL Rookie of the Year.
Along with Skenes on Wednesday, we're targeting the strikeout props for two pitchers in the AL East.
First, Brayan Bello looks to simply figure it out against the Toronto Blue Jays after a brutal start his last time out.
Meanwhile, Corbin Burnes was long neck-and-neck with Tarik Skubal by the Cy Young odds, but the favorite is now lapping him.
Burnes' implied p robability to win the AL Cy Young Award is roughly 5% to 8% across our best sports betting sites. Can he put forth a strong performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday and get himself back in the race?
Today's MLB player props
MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Paul Skenes Under 6.5 strikeouts (+120 via bet365) ???
- Brayan Bello Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100 via FanDuel) ????
- Corbin Burnes Under 5.5 strikeouts (-130 via FanDuel) ????
MLB prop bets for Wednesday
Best odds: +120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 45.45%
Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Claim $150
Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly
We took the strikeout Under on Skenes' fellow rookie teammate Jared Jones on Tuesday, and he finished with only four to cash that bet. Now we're going back to the well with Skenes, and his total is one strikeout higher than Jones' was previously.
This is a friendly reminder that innings caps or any restrictions based on innings are nonsensical garbage. Skenes could go seven innings if he does so on only 70 pitches. He could also last only five if the rookie labors and throws 85 pitches across those frames.
We could see the latter happen on Wednesday against a red-hot Cubs team that's scored 27 runs across the last two games.
Skenes is still projected to rack up 6.29 punchouts. And his other projections – hits allowed, walks allowed, runs allowed, etc. – for the contest suggest he should finally slow down Chicago.
However, he's projected to go aroun d only six innings, likely leading to the relatively low (for Skenes, at least) strikeout projection. He's set to finally help the Pirates bounce back in this series, but the Cubs won't make it easy on him.
Game info:
- Cubs vs. Pirates
- Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
- First pitch: 12:35 p.m. ET
- Moneyline: Pirates (-165 via bet365)
- Total: 8 via bet365
Best odds: +100 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50%
Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets
New customers only. Deposit min. $10. Place first bet of $5+ and get $200 in Bonus Bets (within 72 hours).
Claim $200
Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly
It pains me to say this, but this might be a lost season for Red Sox righty Bello.
The youngster boasts great stuff, but he just hasn't quite figured it out yet. Bello's most significant issue is his inability to avoid the long ball. His 1.33 HR/9 is in the bottom 20 in the league, and his 18.3% HR/FB is the worst mark in MLB by a lot.
Bello does a great job of getting ground balls and is posting a top-10 such rate. But when he does give up fly balls, those hits go a mile. His home runs allowed have led to plenty of abbreviated starts this season, as he's failed to go beyond five innings already 10 times. That's just less than half his starts.
Bello's strikeout projection is just 3.9 on Wednesday, more than a full strikeout below what he'd need to clear this total. That's why we're getting roughly 30% positive expected value through these +100 odds via F anDuel.
Game info:
- Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
- Venue: Fenway Park, Boston
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Moneyline: Red Sox (-150 via bet365)
- Total: 9 via bet365
Best odds: -130 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.52%
Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets
New customers only. Deposit min. $10. Place first bet of $5+ and get $200 in Bonus Bets (within 72 hours).
Claim $200
Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly
Skubal wasn't especially great in his last start, but it's Burnes who's completely pitched himself out of the Cy Young race with his previous two appearances.
Burnes has allowed 13 earned runs across his last two starts, spanning just 9 2/3 innings. He managed only two strikeouts against the Houston Astros during his last outing, and he's gone Over this total just once in his last four games.
The right-hander has regressed each year on the strikeout front, with Burnes' 12.61 per nine during his 2021 Cy Young campaign now a very distant memory. After managing 9.29 K/9 last year, Burnes is at a lowly 8.25 in 2024.
His projection on Wednesday is only 4.26, which is why we're getting 30% +EV on this bet even at this -130 odds.
Game info:
- Orioles vs. Dodgers
- Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
- F irst pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Moneyline: Pick'em (via bet365)
- Total: 8.5 via bet365
MLB betting odds pages
| World Series Odds | MLB Win Totals | MLB RBI Leader Odds |
| World Series MVP Odds | MLB Home Run Leader Odds | MLB Wins Leader Odds |
| MLB MVP Odds | MLB Hits Leader Odds | MLB Home Run Derby Odds |
| MLB Rookie of the Year Odds | MLB Strikeout Leader Odds | |
| MLB Cy Young Award Odds | MLB Stolen Base Leader Odds |
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)