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The grind doesn't stop just because it's the weekend, as there's plenty of exciting baseball action to dive into Saturday, and today's MLB player prop bets are all of the plus-money variety.
We have a trio of picks on Saturday, with many games getting underway during the afternoon.
Our first pick comes from one of those early contests as Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Carson Fulmer will look to shut down the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre when first pitch is thrown at 3:07 p.m. ET.
We're not neglecting the late games, though.
We have a tasty home run prop for the exciting showdown between the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers. Shohei Ohtani hit a walk-off grand slam to join the 40-40 club on Friday night.
Who will play the hero on Saturday?
Today's MLB player props
MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Carson Fulmer Under 4.5 hits allowed (+115 via DraftKings) ???
- Colin Rea Under 4.5 strikeouts (+132 via bet365) ???
- Will Smith to hit a home run (+625 via BetMGM) ??
MLB prop bets for Saturday
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | +115 | OFF | +115 | +104 | +115 |
Best odds: +115 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 46.51%
Angels right-hander Fulmer hasn't been particularly effective this season, but this bet is less about him and more about the Blue Jays.
Sure, Toronto managed to win Friday's game and scratch out 10 hits, but let's not ignore the fact that its lineup featured the likes of Will Wagner, Addison Barger, and Steward Berroa.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will return to the lineup Saturday, but he's only one man.
Additionally, Fulmer may not have the longest leash as he hasn't gone more than four innings in any of his last three starts.
When we run Fulmer's projection against these +115 odds, we're getting 19% positive expected value on this bet.
Additionally, Pinnacle – which features one of the most respected tradi ng teams in the sports betting industry – has this Under priced at -110 after opening at +125.
- Game: Angels vs. Blue Jays
- Venue: Rogers Centre, Toronto
- First pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Moneyline: Blue Jays (-180 via bet365)
- Total: 8.5 via bet365
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| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | +130 | Under 5.5 (-158) | +130 | +123 | +132 |
Best odds: +132 via bet365 | Implied probability: 43.10%
Sticking with right-handers pitching during the afternoon window, Rea looks poised to make a one-way trip to Regression Island very soon.
Rea owns a 3.52 ERA this season, though he has a 4.80 xERA and 4.45 FIP.
Additionally, his called + swinging-strike rate is only 26.9%, which is just outside the bottom 20 among qualified starting pitchers.
Pinnacle opened with Rea's strikeout prop at 5.5 but moved it to Under 4.5 at +119 early Saturday morning.
The only one of our best sports betting sites still offering a total of 5.5 is FanDuel (-158), but Under 4.5 at +132 via bet365 is the higher EV play.
- Game: Brewers vs. Athletics
- Venue: Oakland Coliseum, Oakland
- First pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
- Moneyline: Brewers (-130 via bet365)
- Total: 8 via bet365
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| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | +550 | +450 | +625 | +475 | +600 |
Best odds: +625 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 13.79%
Dodgers catcher Will Smith is probably the fifth-most feared batter on his own team, and yet he's one of the best hitting catchers in the league.
Smith once again looks poised to hit around 20 home runs after managing 19 last season, 24 in 2022, and 25 in 2021. His projections on Saturday suggest he's a good bet to add one to his total this season.
We're getting roughly 31% +EV on this bet through these +625 odds, with BetMGM (and bet365, to a lesser extent) offering a great price on this prop.
Comparatively, Pinnacle opened with a Smith homer priced at +611, but it's shortened all the way to +503.
- Game Rays vs. Dodgers
- Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
- First pitch: 9:10 p.m. ET
- Moneyline: Dodgers (-190 via bet365)
- Total: 7.5 via bet365
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