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We close out the week with plenty of enticing MLB player props, and I've highlighted four that are looking extra valuable as we head into the weekend.
As usual, today's MLB player prop bets are limited to pitcher strikeouts. As the season has progressed, it's proven increasingly difficult to find value in this market, but its efficiency is the reason I prefer to bet on it.
Despite some recent bumps in the road, I'm still up just over 11.5 units for the season. Let's close out the week on a high note.
We're highlighting four pitchers on Friday, with two residing in the hotly contested NL East.
Taijuan Walker looks to help the Philadelphia Phillies bounce back following a loss on Thursday night to the Atlanta Braves, with his team traveling to Kansas City to take on the Royals.
Meanwhile, Paul Bla ckburn and the New York Mets stay in San Diego following a big 8-3 victory on Thursday. Can they make it two in a row off the back of a strong start from their trade deadline acquisition?
Today's MLB player props
MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 strikeouts (-110 via bet365) ????
- Ryne Nelson Under 4.5 strikeouts (+128 via bet365) ????
- Taijuan Walker Over 2.5 strikeouts (-115 via BetMGM) ????
- Paul Blackburn Over 3.5 strikeouts (-110 via DraftKings) ????
MLB prop bets for Friday
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | -125 | -130 | -135 | -127 | -110 |
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
Cincinnati Reds left-hander Abbott is a bit of a weird one when it comes to strikeouts.
Sometimes, he'll rack them up in bunches, like he did on Aug. 8 against the Giants (eight Ks over 4 1/3). Two starts before that, he managed just one punchout over 6 2/3 frames.
On the season, Abbott is managing 7.43 K/9, and his projection on Monday is 4.97.
Based on that projection, we're getting better than 18.5% positive expected value on this bet.
Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, opened with Abbott's Under priced at +104. It's since moved to -137.
Game info:
- Reds vs. Pirates
- Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh
- F irst pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Moneyline: Pirates (-120 via bet365)
- Total: 8.5 via bet365
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| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | +120 | +114 | +120 | +106 | +128 |
Best odds: +128 via bet365 | Implied probability: 43.86%
Arizona Diamondbacks righty Nelson is similar to Abbott. He's punched out 31 over his last 25 2/3 innings, but he managed only 29 strikeouts in 41 innings before that.
It's possible Nelson is turning the corner and finding his strikeout pitch, but his projections suggest that trend won't continue against the Boston Red Sox.
Nelson is projected for just 4.42 Ks on Friday, making this a very enticing bet at these +128 odds.
The best part about this bet is the difference between these odds and those at Pinnacle, which opened with Nelson's strikeout prop at 5.5. After the Under 5.5 moved from -142 to -241, Pinnacle opened Under 4.5 at -113, far shorter odds than those we're getting at bet365.
Game info:
- Diamon dbacks vs. Red Sox
- Venue: Fenway Park, Boston
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Moneyline: Red Sox (-130 via bet365)
- Total: 9.5 via bet365
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | -140 | -125 | -115 | -123 | -135 |
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
It's not clear how long Phillies righty Walker will last in this one, as he's failed to go at least five innings in two straight starts since returning from a finger injury. However, this is a low bar to clear in terms of strikeouts, even for a guy managing only 7.44 per 9.
Walker isn't expected to mow down the Royals, but he is projected to record 3.54 Ks, going Over this 2.5 total fairly easily.
That's why we're getting better than 22% +EV on this bet through these -115 odds. Meanwhile, Pinnacle opened at a nearly identical -114 price, but it's Over has moved to -130.
Game info:
- Phillies vs. Royals
- Venue: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.
- First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Moneyline : Royals (-140 via bet365)
- Total: 9 via bet365
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| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | -110 | -113 | -118 | -119 | -115 |
Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%
The Mets traded for Blackburn prior to the deadline in hopes that he'd provide their rotation with a boost down the stretch. He's done just that, as he owns a 3.68 ERA and has managed 8.18 K/9 over 22 innings, compared to a 4.41 ERA and 6.71 K/9 in 51 frames with the Oakland Athletics.
It appears the market hasn't quite adjusted to Blackburn's improved pitching with a new, contending team.
He's projected for 4.29 strikeouts on Friday, which means we're getting roughly 16% +EV on this bet through these -110 odds.
Game info:
- Mets vs. Padres
- Venue: Petco Park, San Diego
- First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Moneyline: Padres (-140 via bet365)
- Total: 8 via bet365
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