For a second consecutive night, MLB fans get the pleasure of enjoying a Game 7 – with tonight's winner claiming the National League pennant and a date with the Texas Rangers in the 119th World Series. Tonight also offers a rematch of Game 3 between starting pitchers as Ranger Suarez and rookie right-hander Brandon Pfaadt lock hands. Game 3 was also the lowest-scoring matchup of the series so far as the D-backs walked it off in the 9th inning with a 2-1 victory. Will we have another low-scoring game? Let’s five into my YRFI/NRFI best bet of this game, and while you’re at it, make sure you also read our Diamondbacks vs Phillies Same Game Parlay at +575 odds.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies: NRFI (-115)
The Phillies' rotation has been phenomenal throughout the playoffs, boasting a postseason-best 1.93 ERA across 12 games. That includes left-hander Ranger Suarez, who through 3 postseason starts owns a 0.64 ERA with 13 strikeouts to just 2 walks. Suarez is often overlooked in the Philadelphia rotation due to the presence of both Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, but he's pitched in these big moments before, and more often than not he's risen to the occasion. Last season, Suarez made 3 postseason starts as well as 2 appearances out of the bullpen, compiling a 1.23 ERA. Suarez closed out Game 5 of the NLCS against San Diego last season to clinch a World Series berth, then went on to pitch 5.2 innings of scoreless baseball in 2 appearances against the Astros in the World Series. This year, Suarez made 2 starts against the Braves in the NLDS, including the Game 4 clincher, and surrendered just 1 earned run on 4 hits across 8.2 innings. Then in Game 3 against the D-backs, Suarez went 5.1 scoreless innings on just 69 pitches.
For the Diamondbacks, they'll turn to Brandon Pfaadt, who's coming off the best start of his young career. In Game 3, Pfaadt tallied 7 strikeouts in 5.2 scoreless innings before being pulled at just 70 pitches. It was the second consecutive shutout start for Pfaadt, who held the Dodgers scoreless in the NLDS for 4.1 innings. It also marks the 4th shutout in his last 6 outings, dating back to September 15. Pfaadt's overall numbers aren't in the least bit impressive, owning a 5.72 ERA and 1.41 WHIP across 96.0 innings, but the 25-year-old has found something and it's working wonders for the last 5 weeks. In Game 3, we saw each side send up the minimum 3 batters, and it's difficult for me to side with the over given how this series has played out. The Diamondbacks have yet to score a run in the first inning this series and Pfaadt was the only pitcher to keep Philly quiet prior to Merrill Kelly's stellar outing in Game 6. With that, I'm backing a scorel ess first at Citizens Bank Park.