MLB Parlay Picks for Today, Wed 8/28: +962 odds: Astros continue Taijuan Walker's struggles

It’s another busy day in baseball with lots of action across the country. The slate begins with an afternoon start in Pittsburgh between the Cubs and Pirates and continues through the day until the Orioles and Dodgers conclude the night with a late start in Southern California. I’ve crafted a 3-leg parlay for today, so let’s jump right in!

Houston Astros ML (-108) over Philadelphia Phillies

The end of Taijuan Walker's career in Philadelphia is nearly upon us. The Phillies were originally discussing DFA’ing the veteran right-hander this week since he's not only been the worst pitcher on the entire staff, but also in all of baseball. However, it appears the Phillies will give him another start which appears to be make-or-break for Walker. The 32-year-old is having the worst season of his 12-year career considering he comes into this start with a 6.26 ERA paired with a 6.70 xERA in 13 starts. And after taking a quick look at his advanced metrics, it's pretty remarkable that his ERA isn't in the double-digits. Walker ranks in the 1st percentile in xERA, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate along with being in the 5th percentile in xBA, 2nd percentile in whiff rate, and 18th percentile in strikeout rate. He's allowed 12 runs, 16 hits, and 5 home runs in 11.2 innings this month, so I'll happily back Houston to continue Walker's struggles.'

San Diego Padres -1.5 (+128) over St. Louis Cardinals

The Padres offense has come alive in St. Louis. Through 2 games, the Padres have scored 14 runs and racked up 18 hits. A lot of San Diego's success can be attributed to how balanced the team is considering they have Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, and David Peralta hitting outside of the top 4. That makes the lineup feel very long and hard to get through for the pitcher since there aren't many weak spots. Tonight in St. Louis, the Padres will face the reliever-turned-starter Andre Pallante. Pallante has been a serviceable arm in the rotation but has struggled at home in the last few weeks. In fact, he's allowed at least 3 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 home outings. San Diego will counter him with Joe Musgrove, who owns an incredible 0.57 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in 3 starts since coming off the injured list. San Diego has all the advantages for a big win tonight.

Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+142) over Los Angeles Dodgers

The O's opened the series with a huge win over Jack Flaherty and the Dodgers. Cole Irvin put together a solid outing, and the Orioles bullpen covered the rest of the game to limit Los Angeles to just 2 runs all night. It's not going to get any easier for the Dodgers tonight since they have to take on Corbin Burnes, who has been phenomenal away from home this season. The ace has been roughed up a bit in his last few outings at home and he's looking to break the pattern with the change in setting. On the road in 2024, Burnes has a 3.30 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP in 12 starts and has limited hitters to a fabulous .195 batting average and .583 OPS. This won't be his first time facing this stacked Dodgers lineup either since he had plenty of experience against L.A. when he was with the Brewers. That experience should work in his favor since the Dodgers lineup has a .206 batting average and a 30.9% strikeout rate in 110 plate appearances against Burnes. And for the cherry on top, the Baltimore lineup is going to face Walker Buehler, who has allowed 7 runs, 11 hits, and 7 walks in 2 starts since rejoining the rotation.