MLB Parlay Picks for Today, Sat 9/21: +1291 odds: Pablo Lopez dominates Red Sox

We’ve made it to the weekend! We are rewarded with a massive sports day that features plenty of day baseball as well as a massive college football slate. I’ve crafted a 3-leg MLB parlay that pays out at over 12/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, so let’s get into it!

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets under 6.5 (+140)

It might be hard to wrap your head around taking an alternate under in a series that has had 28 runs so far. The Mets dominated Philadelphia in the series opener 10-6 and the Phillies came right back last night with a 12-2 win. That win was extremely important since it clinched a postseason berth for the Phillies. However, the job isn't done yet for Red October. The Phillies can clinch the division title with a win today or tomorrow, and knowing Rob Thomson, he's not going to want to wait another day. Ranger Suarez is on the mound for the Phillies and he's been fantastic since coming back from the injured list as he's allowed 5 hits or less in 4 of his last 5 starts. Plus, he's held hitters to a stunning 25% hard hit rate during those 5 outings. He's being countered by Sean Manaea, who has become an unsung hero for the Mets in 2024. He owns a 1.98 ERA with a 0.77 WHIP in 4 starts this month, so I'm expecting the lineups t o cool off at the plate in this southpaw showdown.

Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+110) over Boston Red Sox

These two teams are going in complete opposite directions. The Twins hold the 3rd and final Wild Card spot in the American League but have the Tigers and Mariners right on their heels. Minnesota needs to keep winning in order to stay in the postseason picture, and fortunately for them, they beat the Sox last night and have two more chances to do it this weekend. Boston was right in the middle of the Wild Card hunt for all of August, but it's been a terrible last few weeks for the Sox. It only got worse last night when Alex Cora announced that Rafael Devers is done for the season. The Sox are waving the white flag and have given up on their postseason aspirations. And unfortunately for them, they have to take on the surging Pablo Lopez who has allowed just 5 earned runs in his last 6 starts. Minnesota should dominate Boston on the mound and at the plate, so I'm backing them for a multi-run win.

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+176) over Arizona Diamondbacks

I'm a huge fan of the Diamondbacks, but not of Merrill Kelly. Arizona has been one of the hottest teams in baseball in the second half of the season and their offense has been hitting the cover off of the ball. But they've needed to put up even more runs than usual when Merrill Kelly starts. The right-hander hasn't been the same pitcher since coming off of the injured list since he's posted a 5.17 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP in 7 starts. In that span, Kelly has allowed a .308 batting average with a ridiculous 48% hard hit rate. Those aren't good numbers to have against a Brewers lineup that totaled 12 hits and 4 runs last night. This game might be a slugfest with Kelly and Aaron Civale on the mound, but I'm expecting the Brewers to hit Kelly early and often.