Mondays are usually slower days in baseball as a lot of teams are enjoying a much-needed rest day. However, there are 24 teams taking the diamond tonight, which means it’s still a busy day. I’m going for my 3rd straight MLB parlay win as I cashed +899 and +405 wins last week, so without further ado, let’s get right into it! But make sure you also read our'MLB picks for all of today’s big games.
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Washington Nationals ML over Miami Marlins (+128)
Last night's game between these divisional foes turned into a softball score.'21 runs were scored as the Nats overcame a 7-0 deficit to win by 3. As for tonight, the game should feature fewer runs since Jake Irvin is on the mound for the Nationals. Irvin had a 3.13 ERA after his first'4'starts of the year, but his ERA soared through the ceiling after the Dodgers shelled him in his last outing.'To be fair,'Irvin faced the star-studded Dodgers in back-to-back starts, and the offense will always have the advantage when facing the same pitcher the second time. The bottom line is I'm still high on Irvin.
A few seasons ago, Trevor Rogers was one of my favorite pitchers'to back. However, a lot has changed since his All-Star season in 2021. Most notably, his pitches aren't as effective as they used to be. In 2021, he ranked in the 95th percentile in fastball run value and 91st in offspeed run value. Through his first few starts in 2024, his fastball is still solid as it ranks in the 92nd percentile, but he ranks in the 6th percentile in breaking ball run value and 1st percentile in offspeed run value. Hitters are smashing his changeup and slider, and the Nats should be able to continue that trend on Monday.