All 30 teams in Major League Baseball are in action on Friday night after a shortened Thursday slate.The Rays and Yankees will continue their series in the Bronx as Gerrit Cole takes the mound one day after Tampa Bay handled his team, 8-2, on Thursday.The Padres and Dodgers begin their second straight weekend series on Friday with Blake Snell taking on Dustin May with Los Angeles four games ahead of San Diego in the division standings.Most people didn't expect the Pirates and Orioles to be above .500 this far into the season, but both would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. They begin a three-game series in Baltimore on Friday.St. Louis and Boston also face off in Fenway this weekend, while two young pitching phenoms face off in Reds vs. Marlins as Eury Perez makes his MLB debut on the mound for Miami.Here are my thoughts on six games from Friday's MLB slate.
6:40 p.m. ET · Marco Gonzales vs. Matthew BoydAs long as Julio Rodriguez isn't putting up elite production at the top of the Mariners' lineup, Seattle is going to have major problems scoring consistently. Rodriguez is whiffing more and chasing more in 2023, and his OPS sits at just .654.The Mariners are 27th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching and just 19th in the league overall.Seattle has the third-highest strikeout rate against southpaws and now gets a matchup with Matthew Boyd, who projects as a 4.50 ERA pitcher. However, he has actually pitched better than that thus far. His 3.78 xERA is accompanied by a decrease in his walk rate and improved command and Location+ numbers.Boyd is opposed by lefty Marco Gonzales, which puts the Tigers in their preferred offensive split. Detroit has been just above average against left-handed pitching since the start of last year with a 101 wRC+, considerably better than its league-worst production against righties.Gonzales' walk rate is elevated once again, and his K-BB% remains below 10% overall. Detroit has the starter edge, and given the hand splits, the offensive edge.I'd bet Detroit at +100 or better.
6:40 p.m. ET · Graham Ashcraft vs. Eury PerezIt's important to not overreact to one bad start, especially when it's an extreme outlier like Graham Ashcraft's start on Sunday against the White Sox.He hadn't allowed more than two runs in any of his first six starts in 2023 until he let in eight runs on six hits in 1.2 innings against a below-average Chicago lineup.With that said, the K-BB% numbers aren't all that impressive, and he's going to need to really suppress BABIP and homers to maintain a solid ERA this year. His last five starts featured just 17 strikeouts and 14 walks in 24.2 innings. Those strikeout and walk peripherals are why the projection systems don't love Ashcraft going forward, and why he's projected for a 4.50 ERA for the rest of the season.There are two ways to look at Ashcraft, though.The decrease in homers allowed in 2023 could be noise and a small sample size, but it's more likely a result of his increased stuff. His Stuff+ on his cutter and slider put him among the best starters in the league. Even if you combine the limited arsenal and the mediocre command, the stuff is too good to not expect him to beat that projection.Ashcraft is opposed by 20-year-old rookie Eury Perez. Perez has dominated Double-A this season and ha s the stuff and the size to intimidate and overpower Major League hitters.Given the pitcher-friendly ballpark environment and the two bottom-five offenses by wRC+, I'd look to play the under on Friday night. The total opened at eight and is closer to 7.5 as of writing, but I'd bet the under if it gets back to eight. At 7.5, it's a pass.
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