Shopping for the best available prices might be more valuable in the home run prop market than any other because there are huge disparities in the MLB odds across our best sportsbooks. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has crunched the numbers and offers his top MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday.
Here are our top MLB home run prop picks for Tuesday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tuesday's MLB home run props
- Seiya Suzuki Over 0.5 home runs (+700 via PointsBet) ??
- Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 home runs (+500 via BetMGM) ?
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Tuesday's MLB home run prop picks
The second-year Cub has flashed power potential against southpaws with a .198 ISO and 35.6 hard-hit rate across his 128 career plate appearances. Suzuki is also squaring the ball up through four games since returning from an oblique injury with a 55.6 hard-hit rate.
Facing Oakland Athletics starter Ken Waldichuk sweetens the deal, too.
The 25-year-old lefty will be making just his 11th career start, and Waldichuk has served up a target-worthy 2.56 HR/9 and 20.0% HR/FB rate to right-handed batters.
Add the wind forecasted to be blowing out at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum at a decent clip Tuesday night, and Suzuki's long odds caught my attention.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +650 | +560 | +600 | +440 ?? | +700 ?? |
I've added a second star to this recommendation because of the huge advantage presented by the PointsBet odds. The difference in the +440 price and +700 number is a positive expected value of 48%.
Now we just need a long fly to connect with the long odds.
Check out our MLB home run leader odds and picks.
This recommendation begins and ends with Washington Nationals righty Josiah Gray resembling a batting-practice coach and surrendering a career 2.98 HR/9 to left-handed batters.
The switch-hitting Rutschman has also done more damage against right-handed hurlers during his short career. The backstop boasts a career .229 ISO against righties, and his barrel percentage is also up to 9.6% to start 2023 after posting a 7.9% mark as a rookie.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +475 | +440 | +500 ?? | +440 | +475 |
There isn't a tremendous edge in the available odds across our best MLB betting sites, but it still pays to take your action to BetMGM. The difference in the +500 price compared to the +440 number is a positive expected value of 11%, and an extra $6 profit on a $10 dollar wager.
Another avenue to capitalize on Gray's ineffectiveness would be the Baltimore Orioles team total of 4.5 runs. DraftKings has the best available odds at -130.
MLB home run prop picks made 4/18/2023 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- Poin tsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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