Price shopping continues to be the name of the game for home run props. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has surveyed the MLB odds across our best sportsbooks and offers his top MLB home run prop picks for Monday.
Here are our top MLB home run prop picks for Monday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday's MLB home run props
- William Contreras Over 0.5 home runs (+450 via FanDuel) ??
- Nathaniel Lowe Over 0.5 home runs (+550 via DraftKings) ??
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Monday's MLB home run prop picks
The Milwa ukee Brewers backstop hasn't left the yard all season and has just a pair of doubles despite a solid 34.4 hard-hit rate. Contreras also has been productive at the dish with a .318 batting average and .400 on-base percentage.
I'm banking on statistical correction to Contreras' power numbers. He posted a rock-solid .228 ISO and 13.4 barrels percentage in 2022, so I'm anticipating his current .045 and 5.7% marks to climb.
This is also the perfect pitching matchup. Seattle Mariners righty Chris Flexen has surrendered 1.86 HR/9 to right-handed hitters since the beginning of last season.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +360 | +450 ?? | +333 | +330 ?? | +340 |
I added a second star to this confidence rating because of the noticeable advantage provided in the FanDuel odds. The +450 number presents a healthy positive expected value of 28% over the number available through Caesars.
Finally, Contreras is also priced at a healthy +120 to go Over 1.5 total bases through DraftKings. For those looking to take a more conservative approach.
Check out our MLB home run leader odds and picks.
I'm targeting Kansas City Royals starter Jordan Lyles with this home run prop. The veteran righty has been beyond vulnerable to left-handed hitters to the tune of a 1.71 HR/9 and 35.4 hard-hit rate dating back to the 2021 campaign.
Lowe also enters Monday's contest swinging a hot bat with six extra-base hits – just one home run – across his past seven ga mes. Additionally, while his numbers against right-handed arms (.188 ISO and 33.1 hard-hit rate dating back to last season) don't jump off the page, this is just as much a pick against Lyles as it is for Lowe.
With the wind also forecasted to be blowing lightly out to right field, and Lyles making a second consecutive start against Texas, the long odds through DraftKings present a little more value.
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +550 ?? | +470 | +525 | +375 ?? | +500 |
The edge provided by shopping for the best price also stands out. The difference between the +550 odds and +375 number through Caesars is a positive expected value of 37%. Put differently, a winning $10 dollar bet returns $17.50 more through DraftKings than Caesars.
Again, if looking to take advantage of the highlighted mismatch through the total bases prop market, the best odds for Lowe to go Over 1.5 is +120 through DraftKings and BetMGM.
MLB home run prop picks made 4/17/2023 at 2 p.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet : Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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